{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T20:53:59Z","timestamp":1782161639532,"version":"3.54.5"},"publisher-location":"Cham","reference-count":29,"publisher":"Springer Nature Switzerland","isbn-type":[{"value":"9783032299208","type":"print"},{"value":"9783032299215","type":"electronic"}],"license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-032-29921-5_14","type":"book-chapter","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T20:18:40Z","timestamp":1782159520000},"page":"202-216","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Studying the\u00a0Effects of\u00a0Climate Factors on\u00a0Forced Migration Models: The Case of\u00a0South Sudan"],"prefix":"10.1007","author":[{"given":"Alireza","family":"Jahani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Diana","family":"Suleimanova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maziar","family":"Ghorbani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Derek","family":"Groen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"14_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Groen, D.: Development of a multiscale simulation approach for forced migration. In: International Conference on Computational Science, pp.\u00a0869\u2013875. Springer (2018)","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-93701-4_69"},{"key":"14_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.1093\/jrs\/fen024","volume":"21","author":"S Edwards","year":"2008","unstructured":"Edwards, S.: Computational tools in predicting and assessing forced migration. J. Refug. Stud. 21, 347\u2013359 (2008)","journal-title":"J. Refug. Stud."},{"key":"14_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Groen, D.: Simulating refugee movements: where would you go? Procedia Comput. Sci. 80, 2251\u20132255 (2016). International Conference on Computational Science 2016, ICCS 2016, 6-8 June 2016, San Diego, California, USA","DOI":"10.1016\/j.procs.2016.05.400"},{"key":"14_CR4","unstructured":"WorldBank: A triumph over long odds: Building rural roads in South Sudan (2016)"},{"key":"14_CR5","unstructured":"UNICEF: Rain, roads and checkpoints: the challenges of supplying South Sudan (2018)"},{"key":"14_CR6","unstructured":"USAID: South Sudan climate vulnerability profile: sector and location-specific climate risks and resilience recommendations (2019)"},{"key":"14_CR7","series-title":"Lecture Notes in Computer Science","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"502","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-77977-1_40","volume-title":"Computational Science \u2013 ICCS 2021","author":"A Jahani","year":"2021","unstructured":"Jahani, A., Arabnejad, H., Suleimanova, D., Vuckovic, M., Mahmood, I., Groen, D.: Towards a coupled migration and weather simulation: south Sudan conflict. In: Paszynski, M., Kranzlm\u00fcller, D., Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V., Dongarra, J.J., Sloot, P.M.A. (eds.) ICCS 2021. LNCS, vol. 12746, pp. 502\u2013515. Springer, Cham (2021). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-030-77977-1_40"},{"key":"14_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101568","volume":"85","author":"C Searle","year":"2021","unstructured":"Searle, C., van Vuuren, J.: Modelling forced migration: a framework for conflict-induced forced migration modelling according to an agent-based approach. Comput. Environ. Urban Syst. 85, 101568 (2021)","journal-title":"Comput. Environ. Urban Syst."},{"issue":"4","key":"14_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"331","DOI":"10.1007\/s10729-007-9030-y","volume":"10","author":"J Anderson","year":"2007","unstructured":"Anderson, J., Chaturvedi, A., Cibulskis, M.: Simulation tools for developing policies for complex systems: modeling the health and safety of refugee communities. Health Care Manag. Sci. 10(4), 331\u2013339 (2007)","journal-title":"Health Care Manag. Sci."},{"key":"14_CR10","unstructured":"Lemos, C., Coelho, H., Lopes, R.J., et al.: Agent-based modeling of social conflict, civil violence and revolution: state-of-the-art-review and further prospects. In: EUMAS, Toulouse, pp.\u00a0124\u2013138 (2013)"},{"key":"14_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mehrab, Z., et al.: An agent-based framework to study forced migration: a case study of Ukraine. PNAS Nexus 3(3), pgae080 (2024)","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgae080"},{"key":"14_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jocs.2024.102371","volume":"81","author":"M Ghorbani","year":"2024","unstructured":"Ghorbani, M., et al.: Flee 3: flexible agent-based simulation for forced migration. J. Comput. Sci. 81, 102371 (2024)","journal-title":"J. Comput. Sci."},{"issue":"1","key":"14_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"28202","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-025-11812-2","volume":"15","author":"Y Xue","year":"2025","unstructured":"Xue, Y., Schincariol, T., Chadefaux, T., Groen, D.: Using machine learning to forecast conflict events for use in forced migration models. Sci. Rep. 15(1), 28202 (2025)","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"issue":"1","key":"14_CR14","volume":"3","author":"F Boesjes","year":"2024","unstructured":"Boesjes, F., Jahani, A., Ooink, B., Groen, D.: Analysing the effect of a dynamic physical environment network on the travel dynamics of forcibly displaced persons in Mali. Int. J. Netw. Dyn. Intell. 3(1), 100003 (2024)","journal-title":"Int. J. Netw. Dyn. Intell."},{"key":"14_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.001","volume":"21","author":"R Black","year":"2011","unstructured":"Black, R., Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W., Dercon, S., Geddes, A., Thomas, D.: The effect of environmental change on human migration. Glob. Environ. Chang. 21, S3\u2013S11 (2011)","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"14_CR16","unstructured":"Ahmed, M.N., et al.: A multi-scale approach to data-driven mass migration analysis. In: SoGood@ ECML-PKDD, p.\u00a017 (2016)"},{"key":"14_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2023.102641","volume":"82","author":"L Thalheimer","year":"2023","unstructured":"Thalheimer, L., Schwarz, M.P., Pretis, F.: Large weather and conflict effects on internal displacement in Somalia with little evidence of feedback onto conflict. Glob. Environ. Chang. 82, 102641 (2023)","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"14_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1038\/s44168-024-00133-1","volume":"3","author":"AI Almulhim","year":"2024","unstructured":"Almulhim, A.I., et al.: Climate-induced migration in the global south: an in-depth analysis. NPJ Climate Action 3, 47 (2024)","journal-title":"NPJ Climate Action"},{"key":"14_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Tsomb Tsomb, E.I.B., Nsoga Nsoga, E.I.B., Bitting, C.D.: Climate change vulnerability and conflicts in Africa: evidence from the migrations channel. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. 31, 18811\u201318854 (2024)","DOI":"10.1007\/s10668-023-03417-4"},{"issue":"4","key":"14_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"443","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph13040443","volume":"13","author":"K Burrows","year":"2016","unstructured":"Burrows, K., Kinney, P.L.: Exploring the climate change, migration and conflict nexus. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 13(4), 443 (2016)","journal-title":"Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health"},{"key":"14_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003","volume":"54","author":"GJ Abel","year":"2019","unstructured":"Abel, G.J., Brottrager, M., Cuaresma, J.C., Muttarak, R.: Climate, conflict and forced migration. Glob. Environ. Chang. 54, 239\u2013249 (2019)","journal-title":"Glob. Environ. Chang."},{"key":"14_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Eboreime, E., Anjorin, O., Obi-Jeff, C., Ojo, T.M., Hertelendy, A.: From drought to displacement: assessing the impacts of climate change on conflict and forced migration in West Africa\u2019s Sahel region. J. Clim. Soc. 100448 (2025)","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joclim.2025.100448"},{"issue":"3","key":"14_CR23","first-page":"267","volume":"11","author":"HH Askland","year":"2022","unstructured":"Askland, H.H., Shannon, B., Chiong, R., Lockart, N., Maguire, A., Rich, J.: Beyond migration: a critical review of climate change induced displacement. Migr. Dev. 11(3), 267\u2013278 (2022)","journal-title":"Migr. Dev."},{"key":"14_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Watson, T., Lenton, T., de Campos, R.S.: The climate change, conflict and migration nexus: a holistic view. Clim. Dev. (2023)","DOI":"10.1002\/cli2.50"},{"issue":"3","key":"14_CR25","volume":"13","author":"Y Xue","year":"2024","unstructured":"Xue, Y., et al.: Many-objective simulation optimization for camp location problems in humanitarian logistics. Int. J. Netw. Dyn. Intell. 13(3), 100017 (2024)","journal-title":"Int. J. Netw. Dyn. Intell."},{"issue":"1","key":"14_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-13828-9","volume":"7","author":"D Suleimenova","year":"2017","unstructured":"Suleimenova, D., Bell, D., Groen, D.: A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations. Sci. Rep. 7(1), 1\u201313 (2017)","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"issue":"5","key":"14_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"651","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343310378914","volume":"47","author":"C Raleigh","year":"2010","unstructured":"Raleigh, C., Linke, A., Hegre, H., Karlsen, J.: Introducing ACLED: an armed conflict location and event dataset: special data feature. J. Peace Res. 47(5), 651\u2013660 (2010)","journal-title":"J. Peace Res."},{"key":"14_CR28","unstructured":"Hersbach, H., et al.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present. 10.24381\/cds.adbb2d47l (2018). Accessed 11 Feb 2021"},{"issue":"3","key":"14_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1161","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-17-1161-2013","volume":"17","author":"L Alfieri","year":"2013","unstructured":"Alfieri, L., et al.: Glofas-global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17(3), 1161\u20131175 (2013)","journal-title":"Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci."}],"container-title":["Lecture Notes in Computer Science","Computational Science \u2013 ICCS 2026"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/978-3-032-29921-5_14","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T20:18:44Z","timestamp":1782159524000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/978-3-032-29921-5_14"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"ISBN":["9783032299208","9783032299215"],"references-count":29,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-032-29921-5_14","relation":{},"ISSN":["0302-9743","1611-3349"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0302-9743","type":"print"},{"value":"1611-3349","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"assertion":[{"value":"23 June 2026","order":1,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ChapterHistory","label":"Chapter History"}},{"value":"The simulations in this study were performed using Flee version 2, available at\n                      \n                      . All scripts that presented in this study are available from the authors upon request.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Code Availability"}},{"value":"The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Disclosure of Interests"}},{"value":"ICCS","order":1,"name":"conference_acronym","label":"Conference Acronym","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"International Conference on Computational Science","order":2,"name":"conference_name","label":"Conference Name","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"Hamburg","order":3,"name":"conference_city","label":"Conference City","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"Germany","order":4,"name":"conference_country","label":"Conference Country","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"2026","order":5,"name":"conference_year","label":"Conference Year","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"29 June 2026","order":7,"name":"conference_start_date","label":"Conference Start Date","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"1 July 2026","order":8,"name":"conference_end_date","label":"Conference End Date","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"26","order":9,"name":"conference_number","label":"Conference Number","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"iccs-computsci2026","order":10,"name":"conference_id","label":"Conference ID","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"https:\/\/www.iccs-meeting.org\/iccs2026\/","order":11,"name":"conference_url","label":"Conference URL","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}}]}}