{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,23]],"date-time":"2026-02-23T23:44:24Z","timestamp":1771890264954,"version":"3.50.1"},"publisher-location":"Cham","reference-count":30,"publisher":"Springer International Publishing","isbn-type":[{"value":"9783319669472","type":"print"},{"value":"9783319669489","type":"electronic"}],"license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,1,1]],"date-time":"2017-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1483228800000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-66948-9_29","type":"book-chapter","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,25]],"date-time":"2017-11-25T02:23:17Z","timestamp":1511576597000},"page":"801-822","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":14,"title":["Some Pitfalls to Beware When Applying Models to Issues of Policy Relevance"],"prefix":"10.1007","author":[{"given":"Lia n\u00ed","family":"Aodha","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Bruce","family":"Edmonds","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"29_CR1","first-page":"99","volume":"7","author":"D Bavington","year":"2009","unstructured":"Bavington, D. (2009). Managing to endanger: Creating manageable cod fisheries in Newfoundland & Labrador, Canada. Maritime Studies (MAST), 7, 99\u2013119.","journal-title":"Maritime Studies (MAST)"},{"key":"29_CR2","unstructured":"Bavington, D. (2010). Managed annihilation: An unnatural history of the Newfoundland cod collapse. UBC press."},{"key":"29_CR3","volume-title":"Resource and environmental management in Canada","author":"D Bavington","year":"2015","unstructured":"Bavington, D. (2015). Marine and freshwater fisheries in Canada: Uncertainties, conflicts, and hope on the water. In B. Mitchell (Ed.), Resource and environmental management in Canada. Canada: OUP."},{"key":"29_CR4","volume-title":"Science on the Verge","author":"A Benessia","year":"2016","unstructured":"Benessia, A., Funtowicz, S., Giampietro, M., Guimar\u00e3es Pereira, A., Ravetz, J., Saltelli, A., et al. (2016). Science on the Verge. Tempe, AZ: The Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University."},{"issue":"3","key":"29_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.1086\/260062","volume":"81","author":"F Black","year":"1973","unstructured":"Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637\u2013654.","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"29_CR6","unstructured":"Bruff, I. (2016). Scandalous obfuscations of crisis in Europe. In: Progress in political economy (PPE). Available from: \n                    http:\/\/ppesydney.net\/scandalous-obfuscations-of-crisis-in-europe\/\n                    \n                  ."},{"key":"29_CR7","volume-title":"A cautionary tale: The true cost of austerity and inequality in Europe","author":"T Cavero","year":"2013","unstructured":"Cavero, T., & Poinasamy, K. (2013). A cautionary tale: The true cost of austerity and inequality in Europe. Oxford: Oxfam International."},{"issue":"18","key":"29_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5125","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1520420113","volume":"113","author":"C Costello","year":"2016","unstructured":"Costello, C., Ovando, D., Clavelle, T., Strauss, C. K., Hilborn, R., Melnychuk, M. C., et al. (2016). Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(18), 5125\u20135129.","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"},{"key":"29_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-66948-9","volume-title":"Simulating social complexity: A handbook","author":"B Edmonds","year":"2017","unstructured":"Edmonds, B. (2017). Five different modelling purposes. doi:\n                    https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-319-66948-9_4\n                    \n                  ."},{"key":"29_CR11","unstructured":"Finlayson, A. C. (1994). Fishing for truth: A sociological analysis of northern cod stock assessments from 1977 to 1990. St. John\u2019s, Newfoundland: Institute of social and economic research, Memorial University of Newfoundland."},{"key":"29_CR12","unstructured":"Finley, C. (2008). A political history of maximum sustainable yield, 1945\u20131955. In D. Starkey, P. Holm, & M. Barnard (Eds.), Ocean's past: Management insights from the history of marine animal populations (pp. 1989\u20131206). London: Earthscan."},{"key":"29_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"610","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolind.2014.01.030","volume":"46","author":"M Giampietro","year":"2014","unstructured":"Giampietro, M., & Saltelli, A. (2014). Footprints to nowhere. Ecological Indicators, 46, 610\u2013621.","journal-title":"Ecological Indicators"},{"issue":"1","key":"29_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1144\/SP408.9","volume":"408","author":"PD Glynn","year":"2017","unstructured":"Glynn, P. D. (2015). Integrated environmental modelling: Human decisions, human challenges. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 408(1), 161\u2013182.","journal-title":"Geological Society, London, Special Publications"},{"key":"29_CR16","unstructured":"Harris, L. (1990). Independent review of the northern cod stock: Executive summary, and recommendations, Available at: \n                    http:\/\/www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca\/Library\/114277.pdf\n                    \n                  ."},{"issue":"2","key":"29_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"257","DOI":"10.1093\/cje\/bet075","volume":"38","author":"T Herndon","year":"2014","unstructured":"Herndon, T., Ash, M., & Pollin, R. (2013). Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 38(2), 257\u2013279.","journal-title":"Cambridge Journal of Economics"},{"key":"29_CR18","unstructured":"Holbraad, M., Pedersen, M. A., & de Castro, E. V. (2014). The politics of ontology: Anthropological positions. Cultural Anthropology, 13. Available at: \n                    https:\/\/culanth.org\/fieldsights\/462-the-politics-of-ontology-anthropological-positions\n                    \n                  ."},{"key":"29_CR19","unstructured":"Kuhn, T. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicago Press."},{"issue":"3","key":"29_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"594","DOI":"10.1080\/03066150.2016.1235036","volume":"44","author":"JW Moore","year":"2017","unstructured":"Moore, J. W. (2017). The Capitalocene, Part I: On the nature and origins of our ecological crisis. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 44(3), 594\u2013630.","journal-title":"The Journal of Peasant Studies"},{"issue":"2","key":"29_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1332\/174426514X13990278142965","volume":"10","author":"W Pearce","year":"2014","unstructured":"Pearce, W., Wesselink, A., & Colebatch, H. (2014). Evidence and meaning in policy making. Evidence & Policy, 10(2), 161\u2013165.","journal-title":"Evidence & Policy"},{"issue":"2","key":"29_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"573","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.100.2.573","volume":"100","author":"K Rogoff","year":"2010","unstructured":"Rogoff, K., & Reinhart, C. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573\u2013578.","journal-title":"American Economic Review"},{"key":"29_CR24","unstructured":"Rosewell, B. (2017). Complexity science and the art of policy making. In J. Johnson, P. Ormerod, B. Rosewell, A. Nowak, & Y. C. Zhang (Eds.), Non-equilibrium social science and policy (pp. 159\u2013178). Switzerland: Springer."},{"issue":"2","key":"29_CR25","first-page":"79","volume":"30","author":"A Saltelli","year":"2014","unstructured":"Saltelli, A., & Funtowicz, S. (2014). When all models are wrong. Issues in Science and Technology, 30(2), 79\u201385.","journal-title":"Issues in Science and Technology"},{"issue":"3","key":"29_CR26","first-page":"79","volume":"31","author":"A Saltelli","year":"2015","unstructured":"Saltelli, A., Stark, P. B., Becker, W., & Stano, P. (2015). Climate models as economic guides scientific challenge or quixotic quest? Issues in Science and Technology, 31(3), 79\u201384.","journal-title":"Issues in Science and Technology"},{"key":"29_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Saltelli, A., & Giampietro, M. (2017). What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures, 91, 62\u201371, Available at: \n                    https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.futures.2016.11.012\n                    \n                  .","DOI":"10.1016\/j.futures.2016.11.012"},{"key":"29_CR28","unstructured":"Scott, J. C. (1998). Seeing like a state: How certain schemes to improve the human condition have failed. Yale University Press."},{"issue":"4","key":"29_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"501","DOI":"10.1002\/sdr.261","volume":"18","author":"JD Sterman","year":"2002","unstructured":"Sterman, J. D. (2002). All models are wrong: Reflections on becoming a systems scientist. System Dynamics Review, 18(4), 501\u2013531.","journal-title":"System Dynamics Review"},{"issue":"7591","key":"29_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"407","DOI":"10.1038\/530407a","volume":"530","author":"N Stern","year":"2016","unstructured":"Stern, N. (2016). Economics: Current climate models are grossly misleading. Nature, 530(7591), 407\u2013409.","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"29_CR31","unstructured":"Stewart, I. (2012). The mathematical equation that caused the banks to crash. The Observer, 12 February 2012, \n                    https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/science\/2012\/feb\/12\/black-scholes-equation-credit-crunch\n                    \n                  . Accessed 01 June 2017."},{"issue":"4","key":"29_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"591","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1542-4774.2011.01030.x","volume":"9","author":"JE Stiglitz","year":"2011","unstructured":"Stiglitz, J. E. (2011). Rethinking macroeconomics: What failed, and how to repair it. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(4), 591\u2013645.","journal-title":"Journal of the European Economic Association"},{"issue":"2","key":"29_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01682418","volume":"10","author":"AM Weinberg","year":"1972","unstructured":"Weinberg, A. M. (1972). Science and trans-science. Minerva, 10(2), 209\u2013222.","journal-title":"Minerva"}],"container-title":["Understanding Complex Systems","Simulating Social Complexity"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/978-3-319-66948-9_29","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,5,20]],"date-time":"2019-05-20T16:51:49Z","timestamp":1558371109000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/978-3-319-66948-9_29"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2017]]},"ISBN":["9783319669472","9783319669489"],"references-count":30,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-319-66948-9_29","relation":{},"ISSN":["1860-0832","1860-0840"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1860-0832","type":"print"},{"value":"1860-0840","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2017]]},"assertion":[{"value":"26 November 2017","order":1,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ChapterHistory","label":"Chapter History"}}]}}