{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,5]],"date-time":"2024-09-05T04:51:59Z","timestamp":1725511919208},"publisher-location":"Berlin, Heidelberg","reference-count":16,"publisher":"Springer Berlin Heidelberg","isbn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"9783540791867"},{"type":"electronic","value":"9783540791874"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-540-79187-4_8","type":"book-chapter","created":{"date-parts":[[2008,5,6]],"date-time":"2008-05-06T07:33:04Z","timestamp":1210059184000},"page":"87-95","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Capturing Public Knowledge to Forecast Future Events"],"prefix":"10.1007","author":[{"given":"Thomas","family":"Seemann","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Harald","family":"Hungenberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","reference":[{"key":"8_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2006.04.006","volume":"22","author":"J.S. Armstrong","year":"2006","unstructured":"Armstrong, J.S.: Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error. International Journal of Forecasting\u00a022, 583\u2013598 (2006)","journal-title":"International Journal of Forecasting"},{"key":"8_CR2","unstructured":"Berg, J., Forsythe, R., Nelson, F., Rietz, T.: Results from a Dozen Years of Election Markets Research. Working Draft, University of Iowa, College of Business Administration (for eventual publication in: Plott, C.R., Smith, V.L., (eds.): The Handbook of Experimental Economics Results) (2003)"},{"key":"8_CR3","unstructured":"Berg, J., Nelson, F., Rietz, T.: Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets, Working Draft, University of Iowa, College of Business Administration (2003)"},{"key":"8_CR4","volume-title":"ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC 2005)","author":"Y. Chen","year":"2005","unstructured":"Chen, Y., Chu, C.-H., Mullen, T., Pennock, D.M.: Information Markets vs. Opinion Pools: An Empirical Comparison. In: ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC 2005), Vancouver, BC, Canada (2005)"},{"issue":"1","key":"8_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1080\/10196780500034939","volume":"15","author":"T.S. Gruca","year":"2005","unstructured":"Gruca, T.S., Berg, J.E., Cipriano, M.: Consensus and Differences of Opinion in Electronic Prediction Markets. Electronic Markets\u00a015(1), 13\u201322 (2005)","journal-title":"Electronic Markets"},{"key":"8_CR6","unstructured":"Kiviat, B.: The End of Management, TIME Magazine, Inside Business (July 2004), \n                  \n                    http:\/\/www.time.com"},{"key":"8_CR7","unstructured":"Luckner, S., Weinhardt, C., Studer, R.: Predictive Power of Markets: A Comparison of Two Sports Forecasting Exchanges. In: Dreier, T., Studer, R., Weinhardt, C. (eds.) Information Management and Market Engineering, Universittsverlag Karlsruhe (2006)"},{"key":"8_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477(1971)052<0239:FAPFSC>2.0.CO;2","volume":"52","author":"A.H. Murphy","year":"1971","unstructured":"Murphy, A.H., Winkler, R.L.: Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society\u00a052, 239\u2013248 (1971)","journal-title":"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society"},{"key":"8_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pennock, D.M., Lawrence, S., Nielsen, F.A., Giles, C.L.: Extracting Collective Probabilistic Forecasts from Web Games. In: 7th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD-2001), New York (2001)","DOI":"10.1145\/502512.502537"},{"key":"8_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1080\/10196780500491303","volume":"16","author":"E.S. Rosenbloom","year":"2006","unstructured":"Rosenbloom, E.S., Notz, W.: Statistical Tests of Real-Money versus Play-Money Prediction Markets. Electronic Markets\u00a016, 63\u201369 (2006)","journal-title":"Electronic Markets"},{"key":"8_CR11","first-page":"2021","volume":"36","author":"R.D. Sauer","year":"1998","unstructured":"Sauer, R.D.: The Economics of Wagering Markets. Journal of Economic Literature\u00a036, 2021\u20132064 (1998)","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Literature"},{"key":"8_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Servan-Schreiber, E., Wolfers, J., Pennock, D.M., Galebach, B.: Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? Electronic Markets\u00a014(3) (2004)","DOI":"10.1080\/1019678042000245254"},{"key":"8_CR13","unstructured":"Tetlock, P.C.: How Efficient Are Information Markets? Evidence from an Online Exchange, Working Draft, Department of Economics, Harvard University (2004)"},{"key":"8_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511493614","volume-title":"Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets","author":"L.V. Williams","year":"2005","unstructured":"Williams, L.V.: Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2005)"},{"key":"8_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"751","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0450(1968)007<0751:PA>2.0.CO;2","volume":"7","author":"R.L. Winkler","year":"1968","unstructured":"Winkler, R.L., Murphy, A.H.: \u2019Good\u2019 Probability Assessors. Journal of Applied Meteorology\u00a07, 751\u2013758 (1968)","journal-title":"Journal of Applied Meteorology"},{"key":"8_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1257\/0895330041371321","volume":"18","author":"J. Wolfers","year":"2004","unstructured":"Wolfers, J., Zitzewitz, E.: Prediction Markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives\u00a018, 107\u2013126 (2004)","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Perspectives"}],"container-title":["Studies in Computational Intelligence","Computer and Information Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/978-3-540-79187-4_8.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,27]],"date-time":"2021-04-27T11:12:56Z","timestamp":1619521976000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/978-3-540-79187-4_8"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[null]]},"ISBN":["9783540791867","9783540791874"],"references-count":16,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-540-79187-4_8","relation":{},"subject":[]}}