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We take the perspective of a private firm interested in sequential capacity expansion of a project and develop a framework for measuring the downside risk of the serial project and optimising the sequence of the stages. Under general distributional assumptions for the duration of each stage, we present an accurate representation of the project\u2019s net present value (NPV) distribution based on a Pearson curve fit, leading to closed-form expressions for the associated risk measures. We then assess the impact of duration variability on the value at risk and demonstrate its role in stochastic project scheduling. We also account for the trade-off between maximising the expected NPV and minimising the risk exposure, and obtain the optimal schedule for risk-averse decision-makers. It becomes obvious that both the duration variability of each stage and the decision-makers\u2019 risk preferences can significantly affect the optimal sequence of the stages and that high duration variability is not always undesirable, even for risk-averse decision-makers.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00291-023-00740-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,30]],"date-time":"2023-12-30T04:33:20Z","timestamp":1703910800000},"page":"709-736","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Risk assessment and optimal scheduling of serial projects"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"46","author":[{"given":"Zixuan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Michail","family":"Chronopoulos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Dimitrina S.","family":"Dimitrova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9592-596X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ioannis","family":"Kyriakou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"740_CR1","volume-title":"The Classical moment problem and some related questions in analysis, University Mathematical Monographs","author":"NI Akhiezer","year":"1965","unstructured":"Akhiezer NI (1965) The Classical moment problem and some related questions in analysis, University Mathematical Monographs. 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