{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,9]],"date-time":"2026-03-09T17:28:44Z","timestamp":1773077324353,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,18]],"date-time":"2023-03-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1679097600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,18]],"date-time":"2023-03-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1679097600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004472","name":"Riksbankens Jubileumsfond","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004472","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004472","name":"Riksbankens Jubileumsfond","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004472","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100009244","name":"Stockholm University","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100009244","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Soc Choice Welf"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Population axiology concerns how to rank populations by the relation \u201cis socially preferred to\u201d. So far, population ethicists have (with important exceptions) focused less on the question of how to rank population prospects, that is, alternatives that contain uncertainty as to which population they will bring about. Most public policy choices, however, are decisions under uncertainty, including policy choices that affect the size of a population (such as climate policy choices). Here, we shall address the question of how to rank population prospects by the relation \u201cis socially preferred to\u201d. We start by illustrating how well-known population axiologies can be extended to population prospect axiologies. And we show that new problems arise when extending population axiologies to prospects. In particular, traditional population axiologies lead to prospect-versions of the problems that they are praised for avoiding in the risk-free settings. Moreover, we show how the axiom of State-Wise Dominance allow us to extend any impossibility theorem in population axiology to impossibility theorems for\n                    <jats:italic>non-trivial<\/jats:italic>\n                    population prospects, that is, prospects that confer probabilities\n                    <jats:italic>strictly between<\/jats:italic>\n                    zero and one on different populations. Finally, we formulate impossibility results that only involve probabilistic axioms.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00355-023-01452-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,18]],"date-time":"2023-03-18T08:02:20Z","timestamp":1679126540000},"page":"829-852","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Population ethics under risk"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"65","author":[{"given":"Gustaf","family":"Arrhenius","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8382-1802","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"H. Orri","family":"Stef\u00e1nsson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,18]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"503","DOI":"10.2307\/1907921","volume":"21","author":"M Allais","year":"1953","unstructured":"Allais M (1953) Le comportement de l\u2019homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et axiomes de l\u2019\u00e9cole Am\u00e9ricaine. Econometrica 21(4):503\u2013546","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"1452_CR2","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2000a) Future generations: a challenge for moral theory. Uppsala University Printers"},{"issue":"2","key":"1452_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"247","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266267100000249","volume":"16","author":"G Arrhenius","year":"2000","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2000) An impossibility theorem for welfarist axiologies. Econ Philos 16(2):247\u2013266","journal-title":"Econ Philos"},{"issue":"2","key":"1452_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1017\/S0953820800003964","volume":"15","author":"G Arrhenius","year":"2003","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2003) Feldman\u2019s desert-adjusted utilitarianism and population ethics. Utilitas 15(2):225","journal-title":"Utilitas"},{"key":"1452_CR5","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2003b) The very repugnant conclusion. Uppsala Philosophical Studies 51"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"1452_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1007\/s11098-004-5223-0","volume":"123","author":"G Arrhenius","year":"2005","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2005) Superiority in value. Philos Stud 123(1\u20132):97\u2013114","journal-title":"Philos Stud"},{"key":"1452_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2009) Can the person affecting restriction solve the problems in population ethics?\u201d In: Roberts MA, Wasserman DT (eds) Harming future persons. Springer, Berlin, pp 289\u2013314","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4020-5697-0_14"},{"key":"1452_CR8","volume-title":"Descriptive and normative approaches to human behavior","author":"G Arrhenius","year":"2011","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2011) The impossibility of a satisfactory population ethics. In: Dzhafarov E, Perry L (eds) Descriptive and normative approaches to human behavior. World Scientific, Singapore"},{"issue":"2","key":"1452_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"166","DOI":"10.1111\/theo.12094","volume":"82","author":"G Arrhenius","year":"2016","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (2016) Population ethics and different-number-based imprecision. Theoria 82(2):166\u2013181","journal-title":"Theoria"},{"key":"1452_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Arrhenius G, Rabinowicz W (2015) Value superiority. In: Hirose I, Olson J (eds) The Oxford handbook of value theory. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 225\u2013248","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordhb\/9780199959303.013.0013"},{"key":"1452_CR11","unstructured":"Arrhenius G (forthcoming) Population ethics: the challenge of future generations. Oxford University Press, Oxford"},{"issue":"3","key":"1452_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"629","DOI":"10.3982\/TE1338","volume":"9","author":"G Asheim","year":"2014","unstructured":"Asheim G, Zuber S (2014) Escaping the repugnant conclusion: rank-discounted utilitarianism with variable population. Theor Econ 9(3):629\u2013650","journal-title":"Theor Econ"},{"issue":"C","key":"1452_CR13","first-page":"104","volume":"65","author":"A Geir","year":"2016","unstructured":"Asheim G, Zuber S (2016) Evaluating intergenerational risks. J Math Econ 65(C):104\u2013117","journal-title":"J Math Econ"},{"key":"1452_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"961","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.30.5.961","volume":"30","author":"D Bell","year":"1982","unstructured":"Bell D (1982) Regret in decision making under uncertainty. Oper Res 30:961\u201381","journal-title":"Oper Res"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"1452_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1016\/0047-2727(84)90042-2","volume":"25","author":"C Blackorby","year":"1984","unstructured":"Blackorby C, Donaldson D (1984) Social criteria for evaluating population change. J Public Econ 25(1\u20132):13\u201333","journal-title":"J Public Econ"},{"issue":"1","key":"1452_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s001480050055","volume":"11","author":"C Blackorby","year":"1998","unstructured":"Blackorby C, Bossert W, Donaldson D (1998) Uncertainty and critical-level population principles. J Popul Econ 11(1):1\u201320","journal-title":"J Popul Econ"},{"key":"1452_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CCOL0521825512","volume-title":"Population issues in social choice theory, welfare economics, and ethics","author":"C Blackorby","year":"2005","unstructured":"Blackorby C, Bossert W, Donaldson DJ (2005) Population issues in social choice theory, welfare economics, and ethics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge"},{"key":"1452_CR18","unstructured":"Bossert W (2017) Anonymous welfarism, critical-level principles, and the repugnant and sadistic conclusions. Working paper, University of Montr\u00e9al"},{"key":"1452_CR19","volume-title":"Counting the cost of global warming","author":"J Broome","year":"1992","unstructured":"Broome J (1992) Counting the cost of global warming. White Horse Press, Strond"},{"key":"1452_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/019924376X.001.0001","volume-title":"Weighing lives","author":"J Broome","year":"2004","unstructured":"Broome J (2004) Weighing lives. Oxford University Press, Oxford"},{"key":"1452_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Broome J (2010) The most important thing about climate change. In: Boston J, Bradstock A, Eng D (eds) Public policy: why ethics matters. ANU E Press, pp 101\u2013116","DOI":"10.22459\/PP.10.2010.06"},{"key":"1452_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Broome J (2015) Climate change: life and death. In: Jeremy M (ed) Climate change and justice. Cambridge University Press, pp 184\u2013200","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781316145340.011"},{"key":"1452_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199672165.001.0001","volume-title":"Risk and rationality","author":"L Buchak","year":"2013","unstructured":"Buchak L (2013) Risk and rationality. Oxford University Press, Oxford"},{"key":"1452_CR24","unstructured":"Budolfson M, Spears D (2018) Why the repugnant conclusion is inescapable. Working paper, Princeton University CFI"},{"key":"1452_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Carlson E (2022) On some impossibility theorems in population ethics. In: Krister B, Tim C, Elizabeth F-B (eds) Gustaf Arrhenius. The Oxford handbook of population ethics. Oxford University Press","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordhb\/9780190907686.013.14"},{"key":"1452_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Diamond P (1967) Cardinal welfare, individualistic ethics, and interpersonal comparison of utility: comment. J Polit Econ 75","DOI":"10.1086\/259353"},{"issue":"C","key":"1452_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"88","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jet.2017.08.006","volume":"172","author":"E Diecidue","year":"2017","unstructured":"Diecidue E, Somasundaram J (2017) Regret theory: a new foundation. J Econ Theory 172(C):88\u2013119","journal-title":"J Econ Theory"},{"key":"1452_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139174978","volume-title":"Utilitarianism, hedonism, and desert: essays in moral philosophy","author":"F Feldman","year":"1997","unstructured":"Feldman F (1997) Utilitarianism, hedonism, and desert: essays in moral philosophy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"649","DOI":"10.1086\/656513","volume":"118","author":"M Fleurbaey","year":"2010","unstructured":"Fleurbaey M (2010) Assessing risky social situations. J Polit Econ 118(4):649\u2013680","journal-title":"J Polit Econ"},{"key":"1452_CR30","volume-title":"Causing death and saving lives","author":"J Glover","year":"1977","unstructured":"Glover J (1977) Causing death and saving lives. Penguin Books, London"},{"key":"1452_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hammond PJ (1987) On reconciling arrow\u2019s theory of social choice with Harsanyi\u2019s fundamental utilitarianism. In: Feiwel GR (ed) Arrow and the foundations of the theory of economic policy. Palgrave Macmillan, pp 179\u2013221","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-07357-3_5"},{"issue":"2\/3","key":"1452_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00735757","volume":"5","author":"PJ Hammond","year":"1988","unstructured":"Hammond PJ (1988) Consequentialist demographic norms and parenting rights. Social Choice Welf 5(2\/3):127\u2013145","journal-title":"Social Choice Welf"},{"issue":"5","key":"1452_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1086\/257416","volume":"61","author":"JC Harsanyi","year":"1953","unstructured":"Harsanyi JC (1953) Cardinal utility in welfare economics and in the theory of risk-taking. J Polit Econ 61(5):434\u2013435","journal-title":"J Polit Econ"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1086\/257678","volume":"63","author":"JC Harsanyi","year":"1955","unstructured":"Harsanyi JC (1955) Cardinal welfare, individualistic ethics, and interpersonal comparisons of utility. J Polit Econ 63(4):309\u2013321","journal-title":"J Polit Econ"},{"issue":"3","key":"1452_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"496","DOI":"10.1086\/292462","volume":"93","author":"T Hurka","year":"1983","unstructured":"Hurka T (1983) Value and population size. Ethics 93(3):496\u2013507","journal-title":"Ethics"},{"key":"1452_CR36","volume-title":"The logic of decision","author":"R Jeffrey","year":"1965","unstructured":"Jeffrey R (1965) The logic of decision. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago"},{"issue":"2","key":"1452_CR100","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.2307\/1914185","volume":"47","author":"D Kahneman","year":"1979","unstructured":"Kahneman D, Tversky A (1979) Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2):263\u2013291. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.2307\/1914185","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"1452_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"805","DOI":"10.2307\/2232669","volume":"92","author":"G Loomes","year":"1982","unstructured":"Loomes G, Sugden R (1982) Regret theory: an alternative theory of rational choice under risk. Econ J 92:805\u2013824","journal-title":"Econ J"},{"key":"1452_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmateco.2020.01.001","volume":"87","author":"D McCarthy","year":"2020","unstructured":"McCarthy D, Mikkola K, Thomas T (2020) Utilitarianism with and without expected utility. J Math Econ 87:77\u2013113","journal-title":"J Math Econ"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"896","DOI":"10.1086\/691568","volume":"127","author":"JM Nebel","year":"2017","unstructured":"Nebel JM (2017) Priority, not equality, for possible people. Ethics 127(4):896\u2013911","journal-title":"Ethics"},{"issue":"2","key":"1452_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1086\/700085","volume":"129","author":"JM Nebel","year":"2019","unstructured":"Nebel JM (2019) An intrapersonal addition paradox. Ethics 129(2):309\u2013343","journal-title":"Ethics"},{"issue":"2","key":"1452_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266267100002406","volume":"5","author":"Y-K Ng","year":"1989","unstructured":"Ng Y-K (1989) What should we do about future generations?: Impossibility of Parfit\u2019s theory X. Econ Philos 5(2):235\u2013253","journal-title":"Econ Philos"},{"key":"1452_CR42","unstructured":"Parfit D (1984) Reasons and persons. Oxford"},{"issue":"2","key":"1452_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1111\/theo.12097","volume":"82","author":"D Parfit","year":"2016","unstructured":"Parfit D (2016) Can we avoid the repugnant conclusion? Theoria 82(2):110\u2013127","journal-title":"Theoria"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"861","DOI":"10.1007\/s00199-019-01194-8","volume":"69","author":"M Pivato","year":"2020","unstructured":"Pivato M (2020) Rank-additive population ethics. Econ Theory 69(4):861\u2013918","journal-title":"Econ Theory"},{"issue":"5","key":"1452_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"323","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-2681(82)90008-7","volume":"3","author":"J Quiggin","year":"1982","unstructured":"Quiggin J (1982) A theory of anticipated utility. J Econ Behav Organ 3(5):323\u2013343","journal-title":"J Econ Behav Organ"},{"key":"1452_CR46","unstructured":"Ramsey FP (1926\/1990) Truth and probability. In: Mellor DH (ed) Philosophical papers. Cambridge University Press"},{"issue":"3","key":"1452_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1017\/S0953820807002609","volume":"19","author":"MA Roberts","year":"2007","unstructured":"Roberts MA (2007) The non-identity fallacy: harm, probability and another look at Parfit\u2019s depletion example. Utilitas 19(3):267\u2013311","journal-title":"Utilitas"},{"key":"1452_CR48","unstructured":"Roberts M (2010) The nonidentity problem. In: Stanford encyclopedia of philosophy"},{"key":"1452_CR49","volume-title":"The foundations of statistics","author":"LJ Savage","year":"1954","unstructured":"Savage LJ (1954) The foundations of statistics. Wiley Publications in Statistics, New York"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1093\/analys\/51.4.265","volume":"51","author":"TR Sider","year":"1991","unstructured":"Sider TR (1991) Might theory X be a theory of diminishing marginal value? Analysis 51(4):265\u2013271","journal-title":"Analysis"},{"key":"1452_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Spears D, Budolfson M (2019) Why variable-population social orderings cannot escape the repugnant conclusion: proofs and implications. Discussion paper 12668, IZA","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3468615"},{"issue":"3","key":"1452_CR52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266267115000152","volume":"31","author":"HO Stef\u00e1nsson","year":"2015","unstructured":"Stef\u00e1nsson HO (2015) Fair chance and modal consequentialism. Econ Philos 31(3):371\u2013395","journal-title":"Econ Philos"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"602","DOI":"10.1086\/682915","volume":"82","author":"HO Stef\u00e1nsson","year":"2015","unstructured":"Stef\u00e1nsson HO, Bradley R (2015) How valuable are chances? Philos Sci 82(4):602\u2013625","journal-title":"Philos Sci"},{"issue":"1","key":"1452_CR54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/axx035","volume":"70","author":"HO Stef\u00e1nsson","year":"2019","unstructured":"Stef\u00e1nsson HO, Bradley R (2019) What is risk aversion? Br J Philos Sci 70(1):77\u2013102","journal-title":"Br J Philos Sci"},{"issue":"507","key":"1452_CR55","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"807","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/fzx047","volume":"127","author":"T Thomas","year":"2018","unstructured":"Thomas T (2018) Some possibilities in population axiology. Mind 127(507):807\u2013832","journal-title":"Mind"},{"issue":"11","key":"1452_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3671","DOI":"10.1007\/s11098-021-01621-4","volume":"178","author":"E Thornley","year":"2021","unstructured":"Thornley E (2021) The impossibility of a satisfactory population prospect axiology. Philos Stud 178(11):3671\u20133695","journal-title":"Philos Stud"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00122574","volume":"5","author":"A Tversky","year":"1992","unstructured":"Tversky A, Kahneman D (1992) Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty. J Risk Uncertain 5(4):297\u2013323","journal-title":"J Risk Uncertain"},{"key":"1452_CR58","volume-title":"Theory of games and economic behavior","author":"J von Neumann","year":"1944","unstructured":"von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1944) Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR59","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"929","DOI":"10.1086\/686000","volume":"126","author":"A Voorhoeve","year":"2016","unstructured":"Voorhoeve A, Fleurbaey M (2016) Priority or equality for possible people? Ethics 126(4):929\u2013954","journal-title":"Ethics"},{"issue":"4","key":"1452_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1572","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jet.2011.08.001","volume":"147","author":"S Zuber","year":"2012","unstructured":"Zuber S, Asheim GB (2012) Justifying social discounting: the rank-discounted utilitarian approach. J Econ Theory 147(4):1572\u20131601","journal-title":"J Econ Theory"}],"container-title":["Social Choice and Welfare"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00355-023-01452-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00355-023-01452-8\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00355-023-01452-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,11,25]],"date-time":"2025-11-25T06:02:32Z","timestamp":1764050552000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s00355-023-01452-8"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,18]]},"references-count":61,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["1452"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00355-023-01452-8","relation":{},"ISSN":["0176-1714","1432-217X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0176-1714","type":"print"},{"value":"1432-217X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,18]]},"assertion":[{"value":"8 July 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"21 January 2023","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"18 March 2023","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}}]}}