{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,27]],"date-time":"2026-03-27T11:20:43Z","timestamp":1774610443975,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,26]],"date-time":"2018-03-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1522022400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J Classif"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,4]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s00357-018-9252-3","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,26]],"date-time":"2018-03-26T03:49:54Z","timestamp":1522036194000},"page":"147-171","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["The Lack of Cross-Validation Can Lead to Inflated Results and Spurious Conclusions: A Re-Analysis of the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"Ehsan","family":"Bokhari","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Lawrence","family":"Hubert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"9252_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"324","DOI":"10.1177\/0093854804263635","volume":"31","author":"S BANKS","year":"2004","unstructured":"BANKS, S., ROBBINS, P.C., SILVER, E., VESSELINOV, R., STEADMAN, H.J., MONAHAN, J., and ROTH, L.H. (2004), \u201cA Multiple-Models Approach to Violence Risk Assessment Among People With Mental Disorder\u201d, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 31, 324\u2013340.","journal-title":"Criminal Justice and Behavior"},{"key":"9252_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"107","DOI":"10.1007\/s10940-010-9098-2","volume":"27","author":"R BERK","year":"2011","unstructured":"BERK, R. (2011), \u201cAsymmetric Loss Functions for Forecasting in Criminal Justice Settings\u201d, Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 27, 107\u2013123.","journal-title":"Journal of Quantitative Criminology"},{"key":"9252_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-3085-8","volume-title":"Criminal Justice Forecasts of Risk: A Machine Learning Approach","author":"R BERK","year":"2012","unstructured":"BERK, R. (2012), Criminal Justice Forecasts of Risk: A Machine Learning Approach, New York, NY: Springer."},{"key":"9252_CR4","first-page":"123","volume":"26","author":"L BREIMAN","year":"1996","unstructured":"BREIMAN, L. (1996), \u201cBagging Predictors\u201d, Machine Learning, 26, 123\u2013140.","journal-title":"Machine Learning"},{"key":"9252_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1010933404324","volume":"45","author":"L BREIMAN","year":"2001","unstructured":"BREIMAN, L. (2001), \u201cRandom Forests\u201d, Machine Learning, 45, 5\u201332.","journal-title":"Machine Learning"},{"key":"9252_CR6","volume-title":"Classification and Regression Trees","author":"L BREIMAN","year":"1984","unstructured":"BREIMAN, L., FRIEDMAN, J.H., OLSHEN, R.A., and STONE, C.J. (1984), Classification and Regression Trees, Belmont, CA: Wadsworth and Brooks."},{"key":"9252_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"BREIMAN, L., and SPECTOR, P. (1992), \u201cSubmodel Selection and Evaluation in Regression. The X-Random Case\u201d, International Statistical Review, 291\u2013319.","DOI":"10.2307\/1403680"},{"key":"9252_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"316","DOI":"10.1080\/14999013.2010.527428","volume":"9","author":"M DOYLE","year":"2010","unstructured":"DOYLE, M., SHAW, J., CARTER, S., and DOLAN, M. (2010), \u201cInvestigating the Validity of the Classification of Violence Risk in a UK Sample\u201d, International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 9, 316\u2013323.","journal-title":"International Journal of Forensic Mental Health"},{"key":"9252_CR9","first-page":"3133","volume":"15","author":"M FERN\u00c1NDEZ-DELGADO","year":"2014","unstructured":"FERN\u00c1NDEZ-DELGADO, M., CERNADAS, E., BARRO, S., and AMORIM, D. (2014), \u201cDo We Need Hundreds of Classifiers to Solve Real World Classification Problems?\u201d, The Journal of Machine Learning Research, 15, 3133\u20133181.","journal-title":"The Journal of Machine Learning Research"},{"key":"9252_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"35","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01499131","volume":"20","author":"W GARDNER","year":"1996","unstructured":"GARDNER, W., LIDZ, C.W., MULVEY, E.P., and SHAW, E.C. (1996), \u201cA Comparison of Actuarial Methods for Identifying Repetitively Violent Patients with Mental Illnesses\u201d, Law and Human Behavior, 20, 35\u201348.","journal-title":"Law and Human Behavior"},{"key":"9252_CR11","volume-title":"Variability and Mutability: Contribution to the Study of Distributions and Report Statistics","author":"C GINI","year":"1912","unstructured":"GINI, C. (1912), Variability and Mutability: Contribution to the Study of Distributions and Report Statistics, Bologna, Italy: C. Cuppini."},{"key":"9252_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1016\/0191-8869(80)90028-8","volume":"1","author":"RD HARE","year":"1980","unstructured":"HARE, R.D. (1980), \u201cA Research Scale for the Assessment of Psychopathy in Criminal Populations\u201d, Personality and Individual Differences, 1, 111\u2013119.","journal-title":"Personality and Individual Differences"},{"key":"9252_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1002\/bsl.2048","volume":"31","author":"GT HARRIS","year":"2013","unstructured":"HARRIS, G.T., and RICE, M.E. (2013), \u201cBayes and Base Rates: What is an Informative Prior for Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment?\u201d, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 103-124.","journal-title":"Behavioral Sciences and the Law"},{"key":"9252_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-84858-7","volume-title":"The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction","author":"T HASTIE","year":"2009","unstructured":"HASTIE, T. , TIBSHIRANI, R., and FRIEDMAN, J. (2009), The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction (2nd ed.), New York, NY: Springer.","edition":"2"},{"key":"9252_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-7138-7","volume-title":"An Introduction to Statistical Learning","author":"G JAMES","year":"2013","unstructured":"JAMES, G., WITTEN, D., HASTIE, T., and TIBSHIRANI, R. (2013), An Introduction to Statistical Learning, New York, NY: Springer."},{"key":"9252_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-6849-3","volume-title":"Applied Predictive Modeling","author":"M KUHN","year":"2013","unstructured":"KUHN, M., and JOHNSON, K. (2013), Applied Predictive Modeling, New York, NY: Springer."},{"key":"9252_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"676","DOI":"10.1177\/0306624X07299227","volume":"51","author":"PJ MCCUSKER","year":"2007","unstructured":"MCCUSKER, P.J. (2007), \u201cIssues Regarding the Clinical Use of the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) Assessment Instrument\u201d, International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 51, 676\u2013685.","journal-title":"International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology"},{"key":"9252_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"430","DOI":"10.1176\/ps.62.4.pss6204_0430","volume":"62","author":"BE MCDERMOTT","year":"2011","unstructured":"MCDERMOTT, B.E., DUALAN, I.V., and SCOTT, C.L. (2011), \u201cThe Predictive Ability of the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) in a Forensic Psychiatric Hospital\u201d, Psychiatric Services, 62, 430\u2013433.","journal-title":"Psychiatric Services"},{"key":"9252_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"194","DOI":"10.1037\/h0048070","volume":"52","author":"PE MEEHL","year":"1955","unstructured":"MEEHL, P.E., and ROSEN, A.(1955), \u201cAntecedent Probability and the Efficiency of Psychometric Signs, Patterns, or Cutting Scores\u201d, Psychological Bulletin, 52, 194\u2013215.","journal-title":"Psychological Bulletin"},{"key":"9252_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"721","DOI":"10.1002\/bsl.725","volume":"24","author":"J MONAHAN","year":"2006","unstructured":"MONAHAN, J., STEADMAN, H.J., APPELBAUM, P.S., GRISSO, T., MULVEY, E.P., ROTH, L.H., and SILVER, E. (2006), \u201cThe Classification of Violence Risk\u201d, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 24, 721\u2013730.","journal-title":"Behavioral Sciences and the Law"},{"key":"9252_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"810","DOI":"10.1176\/appi.ps.56.7.810","volume":"56","author":"J MONAHAN","year":"2005","unstructured":"MONAHAN, J., STEADMAN, H.J., ROBBINS, P.C., APPELBAUM, P.S., BANKS, S., GRISSO, T., and SILVER, E. (2005), \u201cAn Actuarial Model of Violence Risk Assessment for Persons with Mental Disorders\u201d, Psychiatric Services, 56, 810\u2013815.","journal-title":"Psychiatric Services"},{"key":"9252_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"312","DOI":"10.1192\/bjp.176.4.312","volume":"176","author":"J MONAHAN","year":"2000","unstructured":"MONAHAN, J., STEADMAN, H.J., ROBBINS, P.C., SILVER, E., APPELBAUM, P.S., GRISSO, T., and ROTH, L.H. (2000), \u201cDeveloping a Clinically Useful Actuarial Tool for Assessing Violence Risk\u201d, The British Journal of Psychiatry, 176, 312\u2013319.","journal-title":"The British Journal of Psychiatry"},{"key":"9252_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780195138825.001.0001","volume-title":"Rethinking Risk Assessment: The MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence","author":"J MONAHAN","year":"2001","unstructured":"MONAHAN, J., STEADMAN, H.J., SILVER, E., APPELBAUM, P.S., ROBBINS, P.C., MULVEY, E.P., and BANKS, S. (2001), Rethinking Risk Assessment: The MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence, New York, NY: Oxford University Press."},{"key":"9252_CR24","first-page":"523","volume":"75","author":"D MOSSMAN","year":"2006","unstructured":"MOSSMAN, D. (2006), \u201cCritique of Pure Risk Assessment or, Kant Meets Tarasoff\u201d, University of Cincinnati Law Review, 75, 523\u2013609.","journal-title":"University of Cincinnati Law Review"},{"key":"9252_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1002\/bsl.2050","volume":"31","author":"D MOSSMAN","year":"2013","unstructured":"MOSSMAN, D. (2013), \u201cEvaluating Risk Assessments Using Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis: Rationale, Advantages, Insights, and Limitations\u201d, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 31, 23\u201339.","journal-title":"Behavioral Sciences and the Law"},{"key":"9252_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1177\/1745691612465253","volume":"7","author":"H PASHLER","year":"2012","unstructured":"PASHLER, H., and WAGENMAKERS, E.J. (2012), \u201cEditors\u2019 Introduction to the Special Section on Replicability in Psychological Science: A Crisis of Confidence?\u201d, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7, 528\u2013530.","journal-title":"Perspectives on Psychological Science"},{"key":"9252_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.3758\/BF03342823","volume":"1","author":"I POLLACK","year":"1964","unstructured":"POLLACK, I., and NORMAN, D.A. (1964), \u201cA Non-Parametric Analysis of Recognition Experiments\u201d, Psychonomic Science, 1, 125\u2013126.","journal-title":"Psychonomic Science"},{"key":"9252_CR28","unstructured":"R CORE TEAM (2014), R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (Version 3.1.1), Vienna, Austria, http:\/\/www.R-project.org\/ ."},{"key":"9252_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"358","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.107.2.358","volume":"107","author":"S ROBERTS","year":"2000","unstructured":"ROBERTS, S., and PASHLER, H. (2000), \u201cHow Persuasive is a Good Fit? A Comment on Theory Testing\u201d, Psychological Review. 107, 358\u2013367.","journal-title":"Psychological Review."},{"key":"9252_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1522","DOI":"10.1176\/ps.2009.60.11.1522","volume":"60","author":"RJ SNOWDEN","year":"2009","unstructured":"SNOWDEN, R.J., GRAY, N.S., TAYLOR, J., and FITZGERALD, S. (2009), \u201cAssessing Risk of Future Violence Among Forensic Psychiatric Inpatients with the Classification of Violence Risk (COVR)\u201d, Psychiatric Services, 60, 1522\u20131526.","journal-title":"Psychiatric Services"},{"key":"9252_CR31","volume-title":"SPSS for Windows (Release 6.0)","author":"SPSS, INC.","year":"1993","unstructured":"SPSS, INC. (1993), SPSS for Windows (Release 6.0), Chicago, IL: SPSS, Inc."},{"key":"9252_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1005478820425","volume":"24","author":"HJ STEADMAN","year":"2000","unstructured":"STEADMAN, H.J., SILVER, E., MONAHAN, J., APPELBAUM, P.S., ROBBINS, P.C., MULVEY, E.P., and BANKS, S. (2000), \u201cA Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools\u201d, Law and Human Behavior, 24, 83\u2013100.","journal-title":"Law and Human Behavior"},{"key":"9252_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1016\/j.psychres.2010.12.021","volume":"188","author":"J STURUP","year":"2011","unstructured":"STURUP, J., KRISTIANSSON, M., and LINDQVIST, P. (2011), \u201cViolent Behaviour by General Psychiatric Patients in Sweden: Validation of Classification of Violence Risk (COVR) Software\u201d, Psychiatry Research, 188, 161\u2013165.","journal-title":"Psychiatry Research"},{"key":"9252_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"266","DOI":"10.1007\/s10979-007-9092-x","volume":"32","author":"SI VRIEZE","year":"2008","unstructured":"VRIEZE, S.I., and GROVE, W.M. (2008), \u201cPredicting Sex Offender Recidivism. I. Correcting for Item Overselection and Accuracy Overestimation in Scale Development. II. Sampling Error-Induced Attenuation of Predictive Validity over Base Rate Information\u201d, Law and Human Behavior, 32, 266\u2013278.","journal-title":"Law and Human Behavior"}],"container-title":["Journal of Classification"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00357-018-9252-3\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00357-018-9252-3.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00357-018-9252-3.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,2]],"date-time":"2024-07-02T09:10:49Z","timestamp":1719911449000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s00357-018-9252-3"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,26]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,4]]}},"alternative-id":["9252"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00357-018-9252-3","relation":{},"ISSN":["0176-4268","1432-1343"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0176-4268","type":"print"},{"value":"1432-1343","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,26]]},"assertion":[{"value":"26 March 2018","order":1,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}}]}}