{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,4]],"date-time":"2026-06-04T14:11:05Z","timestamp":1780582265539,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,2]],"date-time":"2015-06-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1433203200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Stat Methods Appl"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,11]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s10260-015-0313-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,1]],"date-time":"2015-06-01T05:21:57Z","timestamp":1433136117000},"page":"671-695","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Multiple seasonal cycles forecasting model: the Italian electricity demand"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"24","author":[{"given":"Mauro","family":"Bernardi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lea","family":"Petrella","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"313_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.1016\/0169-2070(89)90068-X","volume":"5","author":"SM Bartolomei","year":"1989","unstructured":"Bartolomei SM, Sweet AL (1989) A note on a comparison of exponential smoothing methods for forecasting seasonal series. Int J Forecast 5:111\u2013116","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"239","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2005.08.002","volume":"22","author":"B Billah","year":"2006","unstructured":"Billah B, King ML, Snyder RD, Koehler AB (2006) Exponential smoothing model selection for forecasting. Int J Forecast 22:239\u2013247","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"588","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2008.07.005","volume":"24","author":"JR Cancelo","year":"2008","unstructured":"Cancelo JR, Espasa A, Grafe R (2008) Forecasting from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator. Int J Forecast 24:588\u2013602","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1513","DOI":"10.1198\/jasa.2011.tm09771","volume":"106","author":"AM Livera De","year":"2011","unstructured":"De Livera AM, Hyndman RJ, Snyder RD (2011) Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing. J Am Stat Assoc 106:1513\u20131527","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"313_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199641178.001.0001","volume-title":"Time series analysis by state space methods","author":"J Durbin","year":"2012","unstructured":"Durbin J, Koopman SJ (2012) Time series analysis by state space methods, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press, Oxford","edition":"2"},{"key":"313_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2006.03.005","volume":"22","author":"ES Gardner","year":"2006","unstructured":"Gardner ES (2006) Exponential smoothing: the sate of the art-Part II. Int J Forecast 22:637\u2013666","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"207","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2007.08.024","volume":"191","author":"PG Gould","year":"2008","unstructured":"Gould PG, Koehler AB, Ord JK, Snyder RD, Hyndman RJ, Vahid-Araghi F (2008) Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns. Eur J Oper Res 191:207\u2013222","journal-title":"Eur J Oper Res"},{"key":"313_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"785","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.1987.4335210","volume":"2","author":"MT Hagan","year":"1987","unstructured":"Hagan MT, Behr SM, Ord JK (1987) The time series approach to short-term forecasting. IEEE Trans Power Syst 2:785\u2013791","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"313_CR9","volume-title":"Forecasting structural time series models and the Kalman filter","author":"AC Harvey","year":"1989","unstructured":"Harvey AC (1989) Forecasting structural time series models and the Kalman filter. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge"},{"key":"313_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1228","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1993.10476402","volume":"88","author":"AC Harvey","year":"1997","unstructured":"Harvey AC, Koopman SJ, Riani M (1997) Forecasting hourly electricity demand using time-varying splines. J Am Stat Assoc 88:1228\u20131236","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"313_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"354","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.1997.10524713","volume":"15","author":"AC Harvey","year":"1997","unstructured":"Harvey AC, Koopman SJ, Riani M (1997) The modelling and seasonal adjustment of weekly observations. J Bus Econ Stat 15:354\u2013368","journal-title":"J Bus Econ Stat"},{"key":"313_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1109\/59.910780","volume":"16","author":"HS Hippert","year":"2001","unstructured":"Hippert HS, Pedreira CE, Souza RC (2001) Neural networks for short-term load forecasting: a review and evaluation. IEEE Trans Power Syst 16:44\u201355","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"313_CR13","volume-title":"Forecasting trends and seasonals by exponentially weighted averages","author":"CC Holt","year":"1957","unstructured":"Holt CC (1957) Forecasting trends and seasonals by exponentially weighted averages. Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh ONR memorandum no 52"},{"key":"313_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"439","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-2070(01)00110-8","volume":"18","author":"RJ Hyndman","year":"2002","unstructured":"Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Snyder RD, Grose S (2002) A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods. Int J Forecast 18:439\u2013454","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1002\/for.938","volume":"24","author":"RJ Hyndman","year":"2005","unstructured":"Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Ord JK, Snyder RD (2005) Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models. J Forecast 24:17\u201337","journal-title":"J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-540-71918-2","volume-title":"Forecasting with exponential smoothing. The state space approach","author":"RJ Hyndman","year":"2008","unstructured":"Hyndman RJ, Koehler AB, Ord JK, Snyder RD (2008b) Forecasting with exponential smoothing. The state space approach. Springer, Berlin"},{"key":"313_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hu Z, Bao Y, Xiong T (2013) Electricity load forecasting using support vector regression with memetic algorithms. Sci World J Article ID 292575, p 10 doi: 10.1155\/2013\/292575","DOI":"10.1155\/2013\/292575"},{"key":"313_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"673","DOI":"10.1109\/TPWRS.2003.811010","volume":"18","author":"SJ Huang","year":"2003","unstructured":"Huang SJ, Shih KR (2003) Short-term load forecasting via ARMA model identification including nongaussian process considerations. IEEE Trans Power Syst 18:673\u2013679","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"313_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"42","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01670151","volume":"6","author":"S Kuusisto","year":"1997","unstructured":"Kuusisto S, Lehtokangas M, Saarinen J, Kaski K (1997) Short term electric load forecasting using a neural network with fuzzy hidden neurons. Neural Comput Appl 6:42\u201356","journal-title":"Neural Comput Appl"},{"key":"313_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"336","DOI":"10.1109\/59.221223","volume":"8","author":"CN Lu","year":"1993","unstructured":"Lu CN, Vemuri S (1993) Neural network based short term load forecasting. IEEE Trans Power Syst 8:336\u2013342","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"313_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"367","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijepes.2005.12.007","volume":"28","author":"P Mandal","year":"2006","unstructured":"Mandal P, Senjyu T, Urasaki N, Funabashi T (2006) A neural network based several-hour-ahead electric load forecasting using similar days approach. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 28:367\u2013373","journal-title":"Int J Electr Power Energy Syst"},{"key":"313_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1109\/59.221222","volume":"8","author":"GAN Mbmalu","year":"1993","unstructured":"Mbmalu GAN, El-Hawary ME (1993) Load forecasting via suboptimal seasonal autoregressive models and iteratively reweighted least squares estimation. IEEE Trans Power Syst 8:343\u2013348","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"313_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"451","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-2070(00)00057-1","volume":"16","author":"S Makridakis","year":"2000","unstructured":"Makridakis S, Hibon M (2000) The M3-competition: results, conclusions and implications. Int J Forecast 16:451\u2013476","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1484","DOI":"10.1109\/59.41700","volume":"4","author":"I Moghram","year":"1989","unstructured":"Moghram I, Rahman S (1989) Analysis and evaluation of five short-term load forecasting techniques. IEEE Trans Power Syst 4:1484\u20131491","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"313_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"403","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/71.2.403","volume":"71","author":"JF Monahan","year":"1984","unstructured":"Monahan JF (1984) A note on enforcing stationarity in autoregressive moving average models. Biometrika 71:403\u2013404","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"313_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1621","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1997.10473684","volume":"92","author":"JK Ord","year":"1997","unstructured":"Ord JK, Koehler AB, Snyder RD (1997) Estimation and prediction for a class of dynamic nonlinear statistical models. J Am Stat Assoc 92:1621\u20131629","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc"},{"key":"313_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1535","DOI":"10.1109\/59.99410","volume":"5","author":"AD Papalexopoulos","year":"1990","unstructured":"Papalexopoulos AD, Hesterberg TC (1990) A regression-based approach to short-term load forecasting. IEEE Trans Power Syst 5:1535\u20131550","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Power Syst"},{"key":"313_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1016\/S0378-7796(96)01114-5","volume":"39","author":"S Rahman","year":"1996","unstructured":"Rahman S, Hazim O (1996) Load forecasting for multiple sites: development of an expert system-based technique. Electr Power Syst Res 39:161\u2013169","journal-title":"Electr Power Syst Res"},{"key":"313_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"272","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1985.tb01355.x","volume":"47","author":"RD Snyder","year":"1985","unstructured":"Snyder RD (1985) Recursive estimation of dynamic linear models. J R Stat Soc Ser B 47:272\u2013276","journal-title":"J R Stat Soc Ser B"},{"key":"313_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"799","DOI":"10.1057\/palgrave.jors.2601589","volume":"54","author":"JW Taylor","year":"2003","unstructured":"Taylor JW (2003) Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing. J Oper Res Soc 54:799\u2013805","journal-title":"J Oper Res Soc"},{"key":"313_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"253","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.1070.0786","volume":"54","author":"JW Taylor","year":"2008","unstructured":"Taylor JW (2008) A comparison of time series methods for forecasting intraday arrivals at a call center. Manag Sci 54:253\u2013265","journal-title":"Manag Sci"},{"key":"313_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejor.2009.10.003","volume":"204","author":"JW Taylor","year":"2010","unstructured":"Taylor JW (2010a) Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting. Eur J Oper Res 204:139\u2013152","journal-title":"Eur J Oper Res"},{"key":"313_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"627","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2010.02.009","volume":"26","author":"JW Taylor","year":"2010","unstructured":"Taylor JW (2010b) Exponentially weighted methods for forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles. Int J Forecast 26:627\u2013646","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"key":"313_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"748","DOI":"10.1016\/j.omega.2010.03.004","volume":"40","author":"JW Taylor","year":"2012","unstructured":"Taylor JW, Snyder RD (2012) Forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles using parsimonious seasonal exponential smoothing. Omega 40:748\u2013757","journal-title":"Omega"}],"container-title":["Statistical Methods &amp; Applications"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10260-015-0313-z.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10260-015-0313-z\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10260-015-0313-z","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,9]],"date-time":"2024-06-09T08:40:47Z","timestamp":1717922447000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s10260-015-0313-z"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,2]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,11]]}},"alternative-id":["313"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10260-015-0313-z","relation":{},"ISSN":["1618-2510","1613-981X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1618-2510","type":"print"},{"value":"1613-981X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,6,2]]}}}