{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,17]],"date-time":"2025-05-17T19:21:49Z","timestamp":1747509709485,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]],"date-time":"2021-07-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1625616000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]],"date-time":"2021-07-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1625616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100013093","name":"Science and Technology Planning Project of Shenzhen Municipality","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["JCYJ20190806112210067"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["JCYJ20190806112210067"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100013093","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Appl Intell"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>As the global pandemic of the COVID-19 continues, the statistical modeling and analysis of the spreading process of COVID-19 have attracted widespread attention. Various propagation simulation models have been proposed to predict the spread of the epidemic and the effectiveness of related control measures. These models play an indispensable role in understanding the complex dynamic situation of the epidemic. Most existing work studies the spread of epidemic at two levels including population and agent. However, there is no comprehensive statistical analysis of community lockdown measures and corresponding control effects. This paper performs a statistical analysis of the effectiveness of community lockdown based on the Agent-Level Pandemic Simulation (ALPS) model. We propose a statistical model to analyze multiple variables affecting the COVID-19 pandemic, which include the timings of implementing and lifting lockdown, the crowd mobility, and other factors. Specifically, a motion model followed by ALPS and related basic assumptions is discussed first. Then the model has been evaluated using the real data of COVID-19. The simulation study and comparison with real data have validated the effectiveness of our model.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10489-021-02615-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]],"date-time":"2021-07-07T08:02:41Z","timestamp":1625644961000},"page":"3465-3482","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Statistical analysis of the community lockdown for COVID-19 pandemic"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"52","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7655-7636","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shaocong","family":"Wu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9003-4252","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiaolong","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3216-7027","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jingyong","family":"Su","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"2615_CR1","unstructured":"Alzu\u2019bi AA, Alasal SIA, Watzlaf VJ (2021) A simulation study of coronavirus as an epidemic disease using agent-based modeling. Perspectives in Health Information Management 18(Winter)"},{"key":"2615_CR2","unstructured":"Bao L, Deng W, Gao H, Xiao C, Liu J, Xue J, Lv Q, Liu J, Yu P, Xu Y et al (2020) Reinfection could not occur in sars-cov-2 infected rhesus macaques. BioRxiv"},{"key":"2615_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bobashev GV, Goedecke DM, Yu F, Epstein JM (2007) A hybrid epidemic model: combining the advantages of agent-based and equation-based approaches. In: 2007 winter simulation conference. IEEE, pp 1532\u20131537","DOI":"10.1109\/WSC.2007.4419767"},{"issue":"2","key":"2615_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"252","DOI":"10.1109\/TSMCA.2005.851291","volume":"36","author":"KM Carley","year":"2006","unstructured":"Carley KM, Fridsma DB, Casman E, Yahja A, Altman N, Chen LC, Kaminsky B, Nave D (2006) Biowar: scalable agent-based model of bioattacks. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A: Systems and Humans 36(2):252\u2013265","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A: Systems and Humans"},{"key":"2615_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106779","DOI":"10.1016\/j.asoc.2020.106779","volume":"97","author":"R Catelli","year":"2020","unstructured":"Catelli R, Gargiulo F, Casola V, De Pietro G, Fujita H, Esposito M (2020) Crosslingual named entity recognition for clinical de-identification applied to a covid-19 italian data set. Appl Soft Comput 97:106779","journal-title":"Appl Soft Comput"},{"issue":"10223","key":"2615_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"514","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30154-9","volume":"395","author":"JFW Chan","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chan JFW, Yuan S, Kok KH, To KKW, Chu H, Yang J, Xing F, Liu J, Yip CCY, Poon RWS et al (2020) A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster. The Lancet 395(10223):514\u2013523","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"2615_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chan WKV, Son YJ, Macal CM (2010) Agent-based simulation tutorial-simulation of emergent behavior and differences between agent-based simulation and discrete-event simulation. In: Proceedings of the 2010 winter simulation conference. IEEE, pp 135\u2013 150","DOI":"10.1109\/WSC.2010.5679168"},{"key":"2615_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chumachenko D, Meniailov I, Bazilevych K, Kuznetsova Y, Chumachenko T (2019) Development of an intelligent agent-based model of the epidemic process of syphilis. In: 2019 IEEE 14th international conference on computer sciences and information technologies (CSIT), vol 1. IEEE, pp 42\u201345","DOI":"10.1109\/STC-CSIT.2019.8929749"},{"key":"2615_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103827","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compbiomed.2020.103827","volume":"121","author":"E Cuevas","year":"2020","unstructured":"Cuevas E (2020) An agent-based model to evaluate the covid-19 transmission risks in facilities. Computers in Biology and Medicine 121:103827","journal-title":"Computers in Biology and Medicine"},{"key":"2615_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Frias-Martinez E, Williamson G, Frias-Martinez V (2011) An agent-based model of epidemic spread using human mobility and social network information. In: 2011 IEEE third international conference on privacy, security, risk and trust and 2011 IEEE third international conference on social computing. IEEE, pp 57\u201364","DOI":"10.1109\/PASSAT\/SocialCom.2011.142"},{"key":"2615_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Harweg T, Bachmann D, Weichert F (2021) Agent-based simulation of pedestrian dynamics for exposure time estimation in epidemic risk assessment. Journal of Public Health, pp 1\u20138, https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10389-021-01489-yhttps:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10389-021-01489-y","DOI":"10.1007\/s10389-021-01489-y"},{"key":"2615_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106610","DOI":"10.1016\/j.asoc.2020.106610","volume":"96","author":"A Hernandez-Matamoros","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hernandez-Matamoros A, Fujita H, Hayashi T, Perez-Meana H (2020) Forecasting of covid19 per regions using arima models and polynomial functions. Appl Soft Comput 96:106610","journal-title":"Appl Soft Comput"},{"issue":"9","key":"2615_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1417","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-020-1001-6","volume":"26","author":"N Hoertel","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hoertel N, Blachier M, Blanco C, Olfson M, Massetti M, Rico MS, Limosin F, Leleu H (2020) A stochastic agent-based model of the sars-cov-2 epidemic in france. Nature Medicine 26(9):1417\u20131421","journal-title":"Nature Medicine"},{"issue":"10223","key":"2615_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"497","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30183-5","volume":"395","author":"C Huang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Y, Zhang L, Fan G, Xu J, Gu X et al (2020) Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet 395(10223):497\u2013506","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"key":"2615_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hunter E, Mac Namee B, Kelleher JD (2017) A taxonomy for agent-based models in human infectious disease epidemiology. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 20(3), http:\/\/jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk\/20\/3\/2.htmlhttp:\/\/jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk\/20\/3\/2.html","DOI":"10.18564\/jasss.3414"},{"issue":"1","key":"2615_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0211245","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0211245","volume":"14","author":"E Hunter","year":"2019","unstructured":"Hunter E, Mac Namee B, Kelleher J (2019) Correction: an open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks. PloS One 14(1):e0211245","journal-title":"PloS One"},{"issue":"2245","key":"2615_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20200604","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.2020.0604","volume":"477","author":"T Kano","year":"2021","unstructured":"Kano T, Yasui K, Mikami T, Asally M, Ishiguro A (2021) An agent-based model of the interrelation between the covid-19 outbreak and economic activities. Proceedings of the Royal Society A 477(2245):20200604","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society A"},{"key":"2615_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kasaie P, Dowdy DW, Kelton WD (2013) An agent-based simulation of a tuberculosis epidemic: understanding the timing of transmission. In: 2013 Winter simulations conference (WSC). IEEE, pp 2227\u20132238","DOI":"10.1109\/WSC.2013.6721599"},{"issue":"772","key":"2615_CR19","first-page":"700","volume":"115","author":"WO Kermack","year":"1927","unstructured":"Kermack WO, McKendrick AG (1927) A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character 115(772):700\u2013721","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical and Physical Character"},{"issue":"1","key":"2615_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-016-0028-x","volume":"7","author":"H Lei","year":"2017","unstructured":"Lei H, Li Y, Xiao S, Yang X, Lin C, Norris SL, Wei D, Hu Z, Ji S (2017) Logistic growth of a surface contamination network and its role in disease spread. Scientific Reports 7(1):1\u201310","journal-title":"Scientific Reports"},{"issue":"1","key":"2615_CR21","first-page":"88","volume":"2","author":"M Liang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Liang M, Mei Y, Chuan A, Zhengqiu Z, Hailiang C, Mengna Z, Wei D, Xiaogang Q, Xin L, Bin C (2020) The evaluation of the control measures for covid-19 based on acp approach. Chinese Journal of Intelligent Science and Technologie 2(1):88","journal-title":"Chinese Journal of Intelligent Science and Technologie"},{"issue":"6492","key":"2615_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"742","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abb4557","volume":"368","author":"BF Maier","year":"2020","unstructured":"Maier BF, Brockmann D (2020) Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed covid-19 cases in China. Science 368(6492):742\u2013746","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"2615_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shamil MS, Farheen F, Ibtehaz N, Khan IM, Rahman MS (2021) An agent-based modeling of covid-19: validation, analysis, and recommendations. Cognitive Computation, pp 1\u201312, https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s12559-020-09801-whttps:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s12559-020-09801-w","DOI":"10.1007\/s12559-020-09801-w"},{"issue":"4","key":"2615_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"295","DOI":"10.4161\/viru.24041","volume":"4","author":"CI Siettos","year":"2013","unstructured":"Siettos CI, Russo L (2013) Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics. Virulence 4(4):295\u2013306","journal-title":"Virulence"},{"key":"2615_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110088","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2020.110088","volume":"139","author":"PC Silva","year":"2020","unstructured":"Silva PC, Batista PV, Lima HS, Alves MA, Guimar\u00e3es FG, Silva RC (2020) Covid-abs: an agent-based model of covid-19 epidemic to simulate health and economic effects of social distancing interventions. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 139:110088","journal-title":"Chaos, Solitons & Fractals"},{"key":"2615_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Srivastava A (2020) Agent-level pandemic simulation (alps) for analyzing effects of lockdown measures. arXiv:200412250","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.04.29.20084699"},{"key":"2615_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Teweldemedhin E, Marwala T, Mueller C (2004) Agent-based modelling: a case study in hiv epidemic. In: Fourth international conference on hybrid intelligent systems (HIS\u201904). IEEE, pp 154\u2013159","DOI":"10.1109\/ICHIS.2004.16"},{"key":"2615_CR28","unstructured":"Tisue S, Wilensky U (2004) Netlogo: a simple environment for modeling complexity. In: International conference on complex systems, Boston, MA, vol 21, pp 16\u201321"},{"issue":"10223","key":"2615_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"470","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30185-9","volume":"395","author":"C Wang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Wang C, Horby PW, Hayden FG, Gao GF (2020) A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern. The Lancet 395(10223):470\u2013473","journal-title":"The Lancet"},{"issue":"11","key":"2615_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1009","DOI":"10.1360\/TB-2020-0159","volume":"65","author":"G Wang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Wang G, Qiao F et al (2020) Quantitative evaluation on control measures for an epidemic: a case study of covid-19. Chin Sci Bull 65(11):1009\u20131015","journal-title":"Chin Sci Bull"}],"container-title":["Applied Intelligence"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10489-021-02615-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10489-021-02615-9\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10489-021-02615-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,22]],"date-time":"2022-02-22T06:33:04Z","timestamp":1645511584000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s10489-021-02615-9"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,3]]}},"alternative-id":["2615"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10489-021-02615-9","relation":{},"ISSN":["0924-669X","1573-7497"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0924-669X"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1573-7497"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,7]]},"assertion":[{"value":"14 June 2021","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"7 July 2021","order":2,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"<!--Emphasis Type='Bold' removed-->Competing interests"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"<!--Emphasis Type='Bold' removed-->Conflict of Interests"}}]}}