{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T08:09:40Z","timestamp":1787904580103,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,20]],"date-time":"2025-06-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1750377600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,20]],"date-time":"2025-06-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1750377600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001774","name":"University of Sydney","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001774","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Electron Commer Res"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The collapse of major cryptocurrency exchanges such as FTX has underscored the urgent need for effective systemic risk monitoring in blockchain-based financial markets. This study proposes a comprehensive Value-at-Risk (VaR)-based framework for assessing the risk of crypto assets and introduces a real-time early warning system that incorporates clustering algorithms to detect volatility shifts and concept drift. Using historical price data from seven major cryptocurrencies, we apply GARCH-family models with skewed-t distributions to estimate downside risk and validate the effectiveness of VaR under extreme market conditions. We then integrate unsupervised machine learning techniques, including K-means, hierarchical clustering, and DBSCAN, to classify evolving risk patterns and generate timely alerts. Experimental results confirm the robustness of the proposed framework in capturing tail risks and identifying systemic vulnerabilities. The findings offer practical implications for investors, trading platforms, and regulators seeking to manage emerging risks in decentralized financial ecosystems.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10660-025-09999-7","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,19]],"date-time":"2025-06-19T21:23:29Z","timestamp":1750368209000},"page":"2531-2551","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Risk monitor system for blockchain-based security issuing system"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"26","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6120-1282","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ji","family":"Liu","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zao","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zheng","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yanli","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dong","family":"Yuan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shiping","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"9999_CR1","unstructured":"SIFMA Research, (2022). Capital Markets Fact Book, 2022. https:\/\/www.sifma.org\/resources\/research\/fact-book\/."},{"key":"9999_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Codagnone, C., & Martens, B. (2016). Scoping the sharing economy: Origins, definitions, impact and regulatory issues.\u00a0Cristiano Codagnone and Bertin Martens (2016). Scoping the Sharing Economy: Origins, Definitions, Impact and Regulatory Issues. Institute for Prospective Technological Studies Digital Economy Working Paper,\u00a01.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.2783662"},{"key":"9999_CR3","unstructured":"Informa, (2022). Debt Summary. https:\/\/www.informa.com\/investors\/debt-summary\/"},{"key":"9999_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fung, B. S., & Halaburda, H. (2016). Central bank digital currencies: a framework for assessing why and how.\u00a0Available at SSRN 2994052.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.2994052"},{"issue":"2\u20134","key":"9999_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1049\/blc2.12009","volume":"1","author":"J Liu","year":"2021","unstructured":"Liu, J., Xu, Z., Li, R., Zhao, H., Jiang, H., Yao, J., & Chen, S. (2021). Applying blockchain for primary financial market: A survey. IET Blockchain, 1(2\u20134), 65\u201381.","journal-title":"IET Blockchain"},{"key":"9999_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu, J., Xu, Z., Dai, W., Wu, H., & Chen, S. (2022). Digging into Primary Financial Market: The Issues of Primary Financial Market Issuance and Investigations from the Perspective of Blockchain.\u00a0Frontiers in Blockchain, 19.","DOI":"10.3389\/fbloc.2022.908912"},{"key":"9999_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu, J., Xu, Z., Sai, Y., Zhang, Y., Yuan, D., & Chen, S. (2022). i-Bond: A Next Generation Bond\u2019s Issuing Service System. In\u00a0International Conference on Blockchain\u00a0(pp. 29\u201347). Springer, Cham.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-031-23495-8_3"},{"key":"9999_CR8","unstructured":"Prakash, A. (2008). Evolution of the Basel framework on bank capital regulation."},{"issue":"5","key":"9999_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"423","DOI":"10.1002\/jsc.2142","volume":"26","author":"B Scott","year":"2017","unstructured":"Scott, B., Loonam, J., & Kumar, V. (2017). Exploring the rise of blockchain technology: Towards distributed collaborative organizations. Strategic Change, 26(5), 423\u2013428.","journal-title":"Strategic Change"},{"issue":"2","key":"9999_CR10","first-page":"1","volume":"2","author":"Y Sovbetov","year":"2018","unstructured":"Sovbetov, Y. (2018). Factors influencing cryptocurrency prices: Evidence from bitcoin, ethereum, dash, litcoin, and monero. Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, 2(2), 1\u201327.","journal-title":"Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis"},{"key":"9999_CR11","unstructured":"Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system.\u00a0Decentralized Business Review, 21260."},{"key":"9999_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101830","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tele.2022.101830","volume":"71","author":"J Rice","year":"2022","unstructured":"Rice, J. (2022). Cryptocurrency: A panacea for economic growth and sustainability? Telematics and Informatics, 71, 101830.","journal-title":"Telematics and Informatics"},{"key":"9999_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jempfin.2018.11.002","volume":"50","author":"N Borri","year":"2019","unstructured":"Borri, N. (2019). Conditional tail-risk in cryptocurrency markets. Journal of Empirical Finance, 50, 1\u201319.","journal-title":"Journal of Empirical Finance"},{"key":"9999_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Baeck, C., & Elbeck, M. (2015). Bitcoins as an investment or speculative vehicle.\u00a0A first look,\u00a022(1).","DOI":"10.1080\/13504851.2014.916379"},{"issue":"1","key":"9999_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"91","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfineco.2019.03.004","volume":"134","author":"D Easley","year":"2019","unstructured":"Easley, D., O\u2019Hara, M., & Basu, S. (2019). From mining to markets: The evolution of bitcoin transaction fees. Journal of Financial Economics, 134(1), 91\u2013109.","journal-title":"Journal of Financial Economics"},{"key":"9999_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2018.01.020","volume":"164","author":"K Gkillas","year":"2018","unstructured":"Gkillas, K., & Katsiampa, P. (2018). An application of extreme value theory to cryptocurrencies. Economics Letters, 164, 109\u2013111.","journal-title":"Economics Letters"},{"key":"9999_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1016\/j.frl.2018.04.003","volume":"28","author":"A Phillip","year":"2019","unstructured":"Phillip, A., Chan, J., & Peiris, S. (2019). On long memory effects in the volatility measure of cryptocurrencies. Finance Research Letters, 28, 95\u2013100.","journal-title":"Finance Research Letters"},{"key":"9999_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5541","DOI":"10.2147\/IJN.S200490","volume":"14","author":"S Tiwari","year":"2019","unstructured":"Tiwari, S., Atluri, V., Kaushik, A., Yndart, A., & Nair, M. (2019). Alzheimer\u2019s disease: Pathogenesis, diagnostics, and therapeutics. International journal of nanomedicine, 14, 5541.","journal-title":"International journal of nanomedicine"},{"issue":"24","key":"9999_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2795","DOI":"10.1080\/00036846.2021.1998335","volume":"54","author":"KH Choi","year":"2022","unstructured":"Choi, K. H., Kang, S. H., & Yoon, S. M. (2022). Herding behaviour in Korea\u2019s cryptocurrency market. Applied Economics, 54(24), 2795\u20132809.","journal-title":"Applied Economics"},{"key":"9999_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"787","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2018.07.007","volume":"74","author":"R Selmi","year":"2018","unstructured":"Selmi, R., Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., & Bouoiyour, J. (2018). Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold. Energy Economics, 74, 787\u2013801.","journal-title":"Energy Economics"},{"issue":"1\/2","key":"9999_CR21","first-page":"122","volume":"90","author":"N Stylos","year":"2022","unstructured":"Stylos, N., Asim, M., Park, Y., & Williams, R. B. (2022). How does the blockchain find its way in the UAE? The blockchain as a sociotechnical system. International Journal of Technology Management, 90(1\/2), 122\u2013140.","journal-title":"International Journal of Technology Management"},{"issue":"3","key":"9999_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1108\/DPRG-11-2019-0095","volume":"22","author":"M Ibarahim","year":"2020","unstructured":"Ibarahim, M. (2020). The socio-technical assemblages of blockchain system: How blockchains are framed and how the framing reflects societal contexts. Digital Policy, Regulation and Governance, 22(3), 245\u2013263.","journal-title":"Digital Policy, Regulation and Governance"},{"issue":"7","key":"9999_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2522","DOI":"10.1111\/ssqu.12917","volume":"101","author":"W Bianco","year":"2020","unstructured":"Bianco, W. (2020). In blockchain we trust: Does blockchain itself generate trust? Social Science Quarterly, 101(7), 2522\u20132538.","journal-title":"Social Science Quarterly"},{"issue":"4","key":"9999_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"913","DOI":"10.1108\/OIR-01-2019-0013","volume":"44","author":"Y Hwang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hwang, Y. (2020). The role of affordance in the experience of blockchain: The effects of security, privacy and traceability on affective affordance. Online Information Review, 44(4), 913\u2013932.","journal-title":"Online Information Review"},{"key":"9999_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tele.2019.101278","volume":"45","author":"D Shin","year":"2019","unstructured":"Shin, D. (2019). Blockchain: The emerging technology of digital trust. Telematics and Informatics, 45, 101\u2013111.","journal-title":"Telematics and Informatics"},{"issue":"5","key":"9999_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.2469\/faj.v51.n5.1932","volume":"51","author":"TS Beder","year":"1995","unstructured":"Beder, T. S. (1995). VaR: Seductive but dangerous. Financial Analysts Journal, 51(5), 12\u201324.","journal-title":"Financial Analysts Journal"},{"issue":"9","key":"9999_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1789","DOI":"10.1016\/S0378-4266(00)00160-6","volume":"25","author":"R Campbell","year":"2001","unstructured":"Campbell, R., Huisman, R., & Koedijk, K. (2001). Optimal portfolio selection in a Value-at-Risk framework. Journal of Banking & Finance, 25(9), 1789\u20131804.","journal-title":"Journal of Banking & Finance"},{"key":"9999_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., & Tiwari, A. (2014). Is Bitcoin business income or speculative bubble? Unconditional vs. conditional frequency domain analysis.","DOI":"10.1142\/S2010495215500025"},{"key":"9999_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"122","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2018.10.004","volume":"173","author":"D Koutmos","year":"2018","unstructured":"Koutmos, D. (2018). Return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies. Economics Letters, 173, 122\u2013127.","journal-title":"Economics Letters"},{"key":"9999_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1016\/j.frl.2018.01.005","volume":"26","author":"E Demir","year":"2018","unstructured":"Demir, E., Gozgor, G., Lau, C. K. M., & Vigne, S. A. (2018). Does economic policy uncertainty predict the Bitcoin returns? An empirical investigation. Finance Research Letters, 26, 145\u2013149.","journal-title":"Finance Research Letters"},{"issue":"23","key":"9999_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3666","DOI":"10.3390\/math12233666","volume":"12","author":"M Qureshi","year":"2024","unstructured":"Qureshi, M., Iftikhar, H., Rodrigues, P. C., Rehman, M. Z., & Salar, S. A. (2024). Statistical modeling to improve time series forecasting using machine learning, time series, and hybrid models: A case study of bitcoin price forecasting. Mathematics, 12(23), 3666.","journal-title":"Mathematics"},{"key":"9999_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econlet.2017.06.023","volume":"158","author":"P Katsiampa","year":"2017","unstructured":"Katsiampa, P. (2017). Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models. Economics letters, 158, 3\u20136.","journal-title":"Economics letters"},{"key":"9999_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Li, X., & Zhou, P. (2021). Research on risk management of digital currency based on blockchain technology in mobile commerce. In\u00a0International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction\u00a0(pp. 45\u201367). Springer, Cham.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-77025-9_6"},{"key":"9999_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"41815","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2024.3376509","volume":"12","author":"VT Truong","year":"2024","unstructured":"Truong, V. T., Le, H. D., & Le, L. B. (2024). Trust-free blockchain framework for AI-generated content trading and management in metaverse. IEEE Access, 12, 41815\u201341828.","journal-title":"IEEE Access"},{"issue":"5","key":"9999_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"778","DOI":"10.1016\/j.qref.2006.08.010","volume":"46","author":"D El-Hawary","year":"2007","unstructured":"El-Hawary, D., Grais, W., & Iqbal, Z. (2007). Diversity in the regulation of Islamic financial institutions. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46(5), 778\u2013800.","journal-title":"The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance"},{"issue":"1","key":"9999_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1109\/JIOT.2020.2993601","volume":"8","author":"MB Mollah","year":"2020","unstructured":"Mollah, M. B., Zhao, J., Niyato, D., Lam, K. Y., Zhang, X., Ghias, A. M., & Yang, L. (2020). Blockchain for future smart grid: A comprehensive survey. IEEE Internet of Things Journal, 8(1), 18\u201343.","journal-title":"IEEE Internet of Things Journal"},{"key":"9999_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1016\/j.intfin.2015.12.008","volume":"41","author":"PK Narayan","year":"2016","unstructured":"Narayan, P. K., Liu, R., & Westerlund, J. (2016). A GARCH model for testing market efficiency. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 41, 121\u2013138.","journal-title":"Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money"},{"issue":"4","key":"9999_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1511","DOI":"10.1007\/s10614-023-10373-8","volume":"63","author":"A Garc\u00eda-Medina","year":"2024","unstructured":"Garc\u00eda-Medina, A., & Aguayo-Moreno, E. (2024). LSTM\u2013GARCH hybrid model for the prediction of volatility in cryptocurrency portfolios. Computational Economics, 63(4), 1511\u20131542.","journal-title":"Computational Economics"}],"container-title":["Electronic Commerce Research"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10660-025-09999-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10660-025-09999-7","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10660-025-09999-7.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T02:22:35Z","timestamp":1782786155000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s10660-025-09999-7"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,20]]},"references-count":38,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]}},"alternative-id":["9999"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10660-025-09999-7","relation":{},"ISSN":["1389-5753","1572-9362"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1389-5753","type":"print"},{"value":"1572-9362","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,20]]},"assertion":[{"value":"30 May 2025","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"20 June 2025","order":2,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}}]}}