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Like the statistical mechanics underpinning these latter theories, the framework we propose uses state probabilities as its fundamental objects; but, contrary to the Gibbsian paradigm, our theory directly models the transition probabilities between the initial and final states of a trajectory, foregoing the need to assume ergodicity. We leverage these probabilities in the context of molecular self-assembly to compute the overall likelihood that a specified experimental condition leads to a desired structural outcome. We demonstrate the application of this framework to a toy model in which<jats:italic>N<\/jats:italic>identical molecules can assemble into oligomers of different lengths and conclude with a discussion of how the high computational cost of such a fine-grained model can be overcome through approximation when extending it to larger, more complex systems.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s11036-022-02057-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,15]],"date-time":"2022-12-15T11:04:03Z","timestamp":1671102243000},"page":"491-498","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predicting Supramolecular Structure from the Statistics of Individual Molecular Events"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"28","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3278-2268","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kevin R.","family":"Pilkiewicz","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Pratip","family":"Rana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Michael L.","family":"Mayo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Preetam","family":"Ghosh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,12,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"2057_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"384","DOI":"10.1038\/nrm3810","volume":"15","author":"TPJ Knowles","year":"2014","unstructured":"Knowles TPJ, Vendruscolo M, Dobson CM (2014) The amyloid state and its association with protein misfolding diseases. 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