{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,30]],"date-time":"2026-01-30T01:48:52Z","timestamp":1769737732976,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,4]],"date-time":"2014-10-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1412380800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Scientometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,1]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-014-1451-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,3]],"date-time":"2014-10-03T03:47:09Z","timestamp":1412308029000},"page":"113-134","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Early stage identification of breakthroughs at the interface of science and technology: lessons drawn from a landmark publication"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"102","author":[{"given":"J. J.","family":"Winnink","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Robert J. W.","family":"Tijssen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"1451_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"567","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-005-0228-9","volume":"63","author":"J Adams","year":"2005","unstructured":"Adams, J. (2005). Early citation counts correlate with accumulated impact. Scientometrics, 63, 567\u2013581. doi: 10.1007\/s11192-005-0228-9 .","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"8","key":"1451_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"917","DOI":"10.1080\/09537320903262280","volume":"21","author":"PD Andersen","year":"2009","unstructured":"Andersen, P. D., & Borup, M. (2009). Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 21(8), 917\u2013932.","journal-title":"Technology Analysis & Strategic Management"},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1016\/j.technovation.2007.05.006","volume":"28","author":"VA Ba\u00f1uls","year":"2008","unstructured":"Ba\u00f1uls, V. A., & Salmeron, J. L. (2008). Foresighting key areas in the information technology industry. Technovation, 28(3), 103\u2013111.","journal-title":"Technovation"},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"495","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-007-1888-4","volume":"75","author":"LM Bettencourt","year":"2008","unstructured":"Bettencourt, L. M., Kaiser, D., Kaur, J., Castillo-Ch\u00e1vez, C., & Wojick, D. (2008). Population modeling of the emergence and development of scientific fields. Scientometrics, 75(3), 495\u2013518.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR5","first-page":"150","volume":"17","author":"H Boehm","year":"1962","unstructured":"Boehm, H., Clauss, A., Hofmann, U., & Fischer, G. (1962). Dunnste kohlenstofffolien. Zeitschrift fur Naturforschung Part B-Chemie Biochemie Biophysik Biologie und Verwandten Gebiete, B, 17(3), 150\u2013153.","journal-title":"Zeitschrift fur Naturforschung Part B-Chemie Biochemie Biophysik Biologie und Verwandten Gebiete, B"},{"issue":"2","key":"1451_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"141","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9310.1994.tb00866.x","volume":"24","author":"S Breiner","year":"1994","unstructured":"Breiner, S., Cuhls, K., & Grupp, H. (1994). Technology foresight using a Delphi approach\u2014A Japanese\u2013German cooperation. R&D Management, 24(2), 141\u2013153.","journal-title":"R&D Management"},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2009.03.004","volume":"3","author":"C Chen","year":"2009","unstructured":"Chen, C., Chen, Y., Horowitz, M., Hou, H., Liu, Z., & Pellegrino, D. (2009). Towards an explanatory and computational theory of scientific discovery. Journal of Informetrics, 3(3), 191\u2013209.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"1451_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0040-1625(00)00122-0","volume":"67","author":"V Coates","year":"2001","unstructured":"Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H. A., Pistorius, C., et al. (2001). On the future of technological forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 67(1), 1\u201317.","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"issue":"1","key":"1451_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-1625(94)90037-X","volume":"47","author":"JF Coates","year":"1994","unstructured":"Coates, J. F., Mahaffie, J. B., & Hines, A. (1994). Technological forecasting: 1970\u20131993. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 47(1), 23\u201333.","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"key":"1451_CR10","unstructured":"Daim, T. U., Rueda, G., Martin, H., & Gerdsri, P. (2006). Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73(8):981\u20131012. Tech Mining: Exploiting Science and Technology Information Resources."},{"key":"1451_CR11","unstructured":"Frenken, J. W. M. (2013). Personal communication (unpublished)."},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.1038\/nmat1849","volume":"6","author":"AK Geim","year":"2007","unstructured":"Geim, A. K., & Novoselov, K. S. (2007). The rise of graphene. Nature Materials, 6(3), 183\u2013191.","journal-title":"Nature Materials"},{"key":"1451_CR13","unstructured":"Grupp, H., & Schmoch, U. (1992). Dynamics of science-based innovation, chapter 9\u2014At the crossroads in laser medicine and polyimide chemistry: Patent assessment of the expansion of knowledge, (pp. 269\u2013301). Berlin: Springer."},{"key":"1451_CR14","unstructured":"Hand, D. J. (2009). Mining the past to determine the future: Problems and possibilities. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(3):441\u2013451. Special Section: Time Series Monitoring."},{"key":"1451_CR15","unstructured":"Hollingsworth, J. R. (2008). Scientific discoveries: An institutionalist and path dependent perspective. In Hannaway, C. (Ed.), Biomedicine in the twentieth century: Practices, policies, and politics (pp. 317\u2013353). Amsterdam: IOS Press."},{"key":"1451_CR16","unstructured":"Isenson, R. S. (Ed.). (1969). Project hindsight (final report). Technical report, US Dept. of Defense."},{"key":"1451_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Jewkes, J., Sawers, D., & Stillerman, R. (1958, 1969). The sources of invention. London: MacMillan.","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-00015-9"},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"170","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.4630280305","volume":"28","author":"M Julius","year":"1977","unstructured":"Julius, M., Berkoff, C. E., Strack, A. E., Krasovec, F., & Bender, A. D. (1977). A very early warning system for the rapid identification and transfer of new technology. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 28(3), 170\u2013174.","journal-title":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science"},{"key":"1451_CR39","unstructured":"Koshland, D. E. (2007). The Cha-Cha-Cha theory of scientific discovery. Science, 317(5839), 761\u2013762."},{"key":"1451_CR19","volume-title":"The structure of scientific revolutions","author":"TS Kuhn","year":"1962","unstructured":"Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The structure of scientific revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press."},{"issue":"5","key":"1451_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"846","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.21509","volume":"62","author":"L Leydesdorff","year":"2011","unstructured":"Leydesdorff, L., & Rafols, I. (2011). Local emergence and global diffusion of research technologies: An exploration of patterns of network formation. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 62(5), 846\u2013860.","journal-title":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology"},{"issue":"2","key":"1451_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1080\/09537329508524202","volume":"7","author":"BR Martin","year":"1995","unstructured":"Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 7(2), 139\u2013168.","journal-title":"Technology Analysis and Strategic Management"},{"issue":"8","key":"1451_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1115","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.44.8.1115","volume":"44","author":"N Meade","year":"1998","unstructured":"Meade, N., & Islam, T. (1998). Technological forecasting\u2014Model selection, model stability, and combining models. Management Science, 44(8), 1115\u20131130.","journal-title":"Management Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"1451_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0040-1625(01)00123-8","volume":"69","author":"S Mishra","year":"2002","unstructured":"Mishra, S., Deshmukh, S. G., & Vrat, P. (2002). Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 69(1), 1\u201327.","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"key":"1451_CR24","unstructured":"Nobel Prize Physics. (2010). Scientific background on the Nobel Prize in physics 2010\u2014GRAPHENE, compiled by the class for physics of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. http:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/nobel_prizes\/physics\/laureates\/2010\/advanced-physicsprize2010.pdf ."},{"issue":"5696","key":"1451_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"666","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1102896","volume":"306","author":"K Novoselov","year":"2004","unstructured":"Novoselov, K., Geim, A., Morozov, S., Jiang, D., Zhang, Y., Dubonos, S., et al. (2004). Electric field effect in atomically thin carbon films. Science, 306(5696), 666\u2013669.","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"1451_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2012.09.017","volume":"81","author":"IV Ponomarev","year":"2014","unstructured":"Ponomarev, I. V., Williams, D. E., Hackett, C. J., Schnell, J. D., & Haak, L. L. (2014). Predicting highly cited papers: A method for early detection of candidate breakthroughs. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 81, 49\u201355.","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"key":"1451_CR27","unstructured":"Ponomarev, I., Williams, D., Lawton, B., Cross, D. H., Seger, Y., Schnell, J., et al. (2012). Breakthrough paper indicator: Early detection and measurement of ground-breaking research. In Jeffery, K. G., & Dvo\u0159\u00e1k, J. (Eds.), E-Infrastructures for research and innovation: Linking information systems to improve scientific knowledge production: Proceedings of the 11th international conference on current research information systems (pp. 295\u2013304)."},{"issue":"1","key":"1451_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1016\/j.techfore.2009.05.001","volume":"77","author":"YC Shen","year":"2010","unstructured":"Shen, Y. C., Chang, S. H., Lin, G. T., Yu, H. C., et al. (2010). A hybridselection model for emerging technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(1), 151\u2013166.","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"},{"issue":"2","key":"1451_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1177\/030631277700700202","volume":"7","author":"H Small","year":"1977","unstructured":"Small, H. (1977). Co-citation model of a scientific specialty\u2014Longitudinal-study of collagen research. Social Studies of Science, 7(2), 139\u2013166.","journal-title":"Social Studies of Science"},{"issue":"9","key":"1451_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1842","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.21366","volume":"61","author":"RJW Tijssen","year":"2010","unstructured":"Tijssen, R. J. W. (2010). Discarding the \u2018basic science\/applied science\u2019 dichotomy: A knowledge utilization triangle classification system of research journals. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, 61(9), 1842\u20131852.","journal-title":"Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology"},{"issue":"2","key":"1451_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ipm.2011.07.006","volume":"48","author":"Y-N Tu","year":"2012","unstructured":"Tu, Y.-N., & Seng, J.-L. (2012). Indices of novelty for emerging topic detection. Information Processing and Management, 48(2), 303\u2013325.","journal-title":"Information Processing and Management"},{"issue":"2","key":"1451_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"631","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/45.2.631","volume":"45","author":"P Andel Van","year":"1994","unstructured":"Van Andel, P. (1994). Anatomy of the unsought finding. Serendipity: Origin, history, domains, traditions, appearances, patterns and programmability. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 45(2), 631\u2013648.","journal-title":"The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science"},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"467","DOI":"10.1023\/B:SCIE.0000018543.82441.f1","volume":"59","author":"AF Raan Van","year":"2004","unstructured":"Van Raan, A. F. (2004). Sleeping beauties in science. Scientometrics, 59(3), 467\u2013472.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"key":"1451_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"460","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRev.71.622","volume":"71","author":"PR Wallace","year":"1947","unstructured":"Wallace, P. R. (1947). 1946 Annual meeting at New York, January 30, 31 and February 1, 1947. Physical Review, 71, 460\u2013489.","journal-title":"Physical Review"},{"key":"1451_CR35","unstructured":"Winnink, J. J. (2012). Searching for structural shifts in science: Graphene R&D before and after Novoselov et al. (2004). In Archambault, E., Gingras, Y., & Larivi\u00e8re, V., (Eds.), Proceedings of the 17th international conference on science and technology indicators (STI 2012) (Vol. 2, pp. 837\u2013846)."},{"key":"1451_CR36","unstructured":"Winnink, J., & Tijssen, R. (2014). Early stage identification of \u2018charge\u2019 breakthroughs at the interface of science and technology: Lessons drawn from a landmark publication. Supplementary material."},{"issue":"3","key":"1451_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"588","DOI":"10.1109\/TEM.2007.900796","volume":"54","author":"B Yoon","year":"2007","unstructured":"Yoon, B., & Park, Y. (2007). Development of new technology forecasting algorithm: Hybrid approach for morphology analysis and conjoint analysis of patent information. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 54(3), 588\u2013599.","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management"},{"issue":"4","key":"1451_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.1016\/0040-1625(93)90042-6","volume":"44","author":"P Young","year":"1993","unstructured":"Young, P. (1993). Technological growth curves: A competition of forecasting models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 44(4), 375\u2013389.","journal-title":"Technological Forecasting and Social Change"}],"container-title":["Scientometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11192-014-1451-z.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11192-014-1451-z\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11192-014-1451-z","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,15]],"date-time":"2019-08-15T19:59:23Z","timestamp":1565899163000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11192-014-1451-z"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,4]]},"references-count":39,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,1]]}},"alternative-id":["1451"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11192-014-1451-z","relation":{},"ISSN":["0138-9130","1588-2861"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0138-9130","type":"print"},{"value":"1588-2861","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2014,10,4]]}}}