{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,18]],"date-time":"2026-03-18T22:11:16Z","timestamp":1773871876717,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]],"date-time":"2021-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622851200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]],"date-time":"2021-06-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622851200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["61773020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["61773020"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"National Education Science Foundation of China","award":["DIA180383"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DIA180383"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Scientometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-021-04027-5","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]],"date-time":"2021-06-05T20:02:43Z","timestamp":1622923363000},"page":"5855-5879","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Predicting publication productivity for authors: Shallow or deep architecture?"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"126","author":[{"given":"Wumei","family":"Du","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0391-8725","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zheng","family":"Xie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yiqin","family":"Lv","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"32","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2018.11.003","volume":"13","author":"G Abramo","year":"2019","unstructured":"Abramo, G., D\u2019Angelo, C. A., & Felici, G. (2019). Predicting publication long-term impact through a combination of early citations and journal impact factor. Journal of Informetrics, 13(1), 32\u201349.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"4027_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"485","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2019.02.011","volume":"13","author":"A Abrishami","year":"2019","unstructured":"Abrishami, A., & Aliakbary, S. (2019). Predicting citation counts based on deep neural network learning techniques. Journal of Informetrics, 13(2), 485\u2013499.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"7415","key":"4027_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"201","DOI":"10.1038\/489201a","volume":"489","author":"DE Acuna","year":"2012","unstructured":"Acuna, D. E., Allesina, S., & Kording, K. P. (2012). Future impact: Predicting scientific success. Nature,489(7415), 201.","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"4027_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"407","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2019.01.010","volume":"13","author":"XM Bai","year":"2019","unstructured":"Bai, X. M., Zhang, L. I., & Lee, I. (2019). Predicting the citations of scholarly paper. Journal of Informetrics, 13, 407\u2013418.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2013.11.005","volume":"8","author":"L Bornmann","year":"2014","unstructured":"Bornmann, L., Leydesdorff, L., & Wang, J. (2014). How to improve the prediction based on citation impact percentiles for years shortly after the publication date? Journal of Informetrics, 8(1), 175\u2013180.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"4027_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"471","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2016.02.006","volume":"10","author":"X Cao","year":"2016","unstructured":"Cao, X., Chen, Y., & Liu, K. R. (2016). A data analytic approach to quantifying scientific impact. Journal of Informetrics, 10(2), 471\u2013484.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"6324","key":"4027_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"477","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aal4217","volume":"355","author":"A Clauset","year":"2017","unstructured":"Clauset, A., Larremore, D. B., & Sinatra, R. (2017). Data-driven predictions in the science of science. Science,355(6324), 477\u2013480.","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"4027_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"791","DOI":"10.1080\/00401706.1973.10489112","volume":"15","author":"PC Consul","year":"1973","unstructured":"Consul, P. C., & Jain, G. C. (1973). A generalization of the Poisson distribution. Technometrics,15(4), 791\u2013799.","journal-title":"Technometrics"},{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"18","DOI":"10.1109\/TBDATA.2016.2521657","volume":"2","author":"Y Dong","year":"2016","unstructured":"Dong, Y., Johnson, R. A., & Chawla, N. V. (2016). Can scientific impact be predicted? IEEE Transactions on Big Data,2(1), 18\u201330.","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Big Data"},{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-006-0143-8","volume":"69","author":"L Egghe","year":"2006","unstructured":"Egghe, L., & Rousseau, R. (2006). An informetric model for the hirsch-index. Scientometrics,69(1), 121\u2013129.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"3","key":"4027_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"603","DOI":"10.1111\/obes.12346","volume":"82","author":"O Ejermo","year":"2019","unstructured":"Ejermo, O., Fassio, C., & K\u00e4llstr\u00f6m, J. (2019). Does mobility across universities raise scientific productivity? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(3), 603\u2013624.","journal-title":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics"},{"key":"4027_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"429","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-019-03277-8","volume":"122","author":"A Garc\u00eda-Suaza","year":"2019","unstructured":"Garc\u00eda-Suaza, A., Otero, J., & Winkelmann, R. (2019). Predicting early career productivity of PhD economists: Does advisor-match matter? Scientometrics,122, 429\u2013449.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"3159","key":"4027_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"108","DOI":"10.1126\/science.122.3159.108","volume":"122","author":"E Garfield","year":"1955","unstructured":"Garfield, E. (1955). Citation indexes for science: A new dimension in documentation through association of ideas. Science,122(3159), 108\u2013111.","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-009-0409-z","volume":"79","author":"S Harnad","year":"2009","unstructured":"Harnad, S. (2009). Open access scientometrics and the UK research assessment exercise. Scientometrics,79(1), 147\u2013156.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"key":"4027_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16569","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0507655102","volume":"102","author":"JE Hirsch","year":"2005","unstructured":"Hirsch, J. E. (2005). An index to quantify an individual\u2019s scientific research output. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 16569\u201316572.","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"issue":"8","key":"4027_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1735","DOI":"10.1162\/neco.1997.9.8.1735","volume":"9","author":"S Hochreiter","year":"1997","unstructured":"Hochreiter, S., & Schmidhuber, J. (1997). Long short-term memory. Neural Computation, 9(8), 1735\u20131780.","journal-title":"Neural Computation"},{"key":"4027_CR17","volume-title":"Nonparametric statistical methods","author":"M Hollander","year":"1973","unstructured":"Hollander, M., & Wolfe, D. A. (1973). Nonparametric statistical methods. Hoboken: Wiley."},{"key":"4027_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101004","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2019.101004","volume":"14","author":"YH Hu","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hu, Y. H., Tai, C. T., Liu, K. E., & Cai, C. F. (2020). Identification of highly-cited papers using topic-model-based and bibliometric features: The consideration of keyword popularity. Journal of Informetrics, 14, 101004.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"3","key":"4027_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1265","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-016-1926-1","volume":"107","author":"P Klimek","year":"2016","unstructured":"Klimek, P., Jovanovic, A. S., Egloff, R., & Schneider, R. (2016). Successful fish go with the flow: Citation impact prediction based on centrality measures for term-document networks. Scientometrics,107(3), 1265\u20131282.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"3","key":"4027_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1395","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-018-2703-0","volume":"115","author":"VD Kosteas","year":"2018","unstructured":"Kosteas, V. D. (2018). Predicting long-run citation counts for articles in top economics journals. Scientometrics,115(3), 1395\u20131412.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"10","key":"4027_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"817","DOI":"10.1525\/bio.2013.63.10.9","volume":"63","author":"WF Laurance","year":"2013","unstructured":"Laurance, W. F., Useche, D. C., Laurance, S. G., & Bradshaw, C. J. (2013). Predicting publication success for biologists. BioScience,63(10), 817\u2013823.","journal-title":"BioScience"},{"key":"4027_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400886753","volume-title":"Age and achieve","author":"HC Lehman","year":"2017","unstructured":"Lehman, H. C. (2017). Age and achieve. Princeton: Princeton University Press."},{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-019-03262-1","volume":"122","author":"J Lindahl","year":"2020","unstructured":"Lindahl, J., Colliander, C., & Danell, R. (2020). Early career performance and its correlation with gender and publication output during doctoral education. Scientometrics,122(1), 309\u2013330.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"11","key":"4027_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0049246","volume":"7","author":"A Mazloumian","year":"2012","unstructured":"Mazloumian, A. (2012). Predicting researchers\u2019 scientific impact. Plos One, 7(11), 1\u20135.","journal-title":"Plos One"},{"key":"4027_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-019-03110-2","volume":"120","author":"T Mistele","year":"2019","unstructured":"Mistele, T., Price, T., & Hossenfelder, S. (2019). Predicting authors\u2019 citation counts and $$h$$-indices with a neural network. Scientometrics,120, 87\u2013104.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"key":"4027_CR26","unstructured":"Nair, V., & Hinton, G. E. (2010). Rectified linear units improve restricted Boltzmann machines Vinod Nair. ICML (pp. 807\u2013814)."},{"issue":"3","key":"4027_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"370","DOI":"10.2307\/2344614","volume":"135","author":"JA Nelder","year":"1972","unstructured":"Nelder, J. A., & Wedderburn, R. W. (1972). Generalized linear models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A-G, 135(3), 370\u2013384.","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A-G"},{"issue":"2","key":"4027_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"28002","DOI":"10.1209\/0295-5075\/105\/28002","volume":"105","author":"MEJ Newman","year":"2014","unstructured":"Newman, M. E. J. (2014). Prediction of highly cited papers. Europhysics Letters, 105(2), 28002.","journal-title":"Europhysics Letters"},{"issue":"2","key":"4027_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"252","DOI":"10.1007\/s10489-015-0657-y","volume":"44","author":"N Pobiedina","year":"2016","unstructured":"Pobiedina, N., & Ichise, R. (2016). Citation count prediction as a link prediction problem. Applied Intelligence, 44(2), 252\u2013268.","journal-title":"Applied Intelligence"},{"issue":"3683","key":"4027_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"510","DOI":"10.1126\/science.149.3683.510","volume":"149","author":"DJS Price","year":"1965","unstructured":"Price, D. J. S. (1965). Networks of scientific papers. Science,149(3683), 510\u2013515.","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"4027_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101039","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2020.101039","volume":"14","author":"XM Ruan","year":"2020","unstructured":"Ruan, X. M., Zhu, Y. Y., Li, J., & Cheng, Y. (2020). Predicting the citation counts of individual papers via a BPneural network. Journal of Informetrics, 14, 101039.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"key":"4027_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"85","DOI":"10.1016\/j.neunet.2014.09.003","volume":"61","author":"J Schmidhuber","year":"2015","unstructured":"Schmidhuber, J. (2015). Deep learning in neural networks: An overview. Neural Networks,61, 85\u2013117.","journal-title":"Neural Networks"},{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"77","DOI":"10.1016\/0273-2297(84)90020-0","volume":"4","author":"DK Simonton","year":"1984","unstructured":"Simonton, D. K. (1984). Creative productivity and age: A mathematical model based on a two-step cognitive process. Developmental Review, 4(1), 77\u2013111.","journal-title":"Developmental Review"},{"key":"4027_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"aaf5239","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aaf5239","volume":"354","author":"R Sinatra","year":"2016","unstructured":"Sinatra, R., Wang, D., Deville, P., Song, C., & Barab\u00e1si, A. L. (2016). Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact. Science, 354, aaf5239.","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"11","key":"4027_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e112520","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0112520","volume":"9","author":"DI Stern","year":"2014","unstructured":"Stern, D. I. (2014). High-ranked social science journal articles can be identified from early citation information. Plos ONE, 9(11), e112520.","journal-title":"Plos ONE"},{"issue":"6154","key":"4027_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1237825","volume":"342","author":"D Wang","year":"2013","unstructured":"Wang, D., Song, C., & Barab\u00e1si, A. L. (2013). Quantifying long-term scientific impact. Science,342(6154), 127\u2013132.","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"4027_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-018-2965-6","volume":"118","author":"FH Wang","year":"2019","unstructured":"Wang, F. H., Fan, Y., Zeng, A., & Di, Z. R. (2019). Can we predict ESI highly cited publications? Scientometrics,118, 109\u2013125.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"44","key":"4027_CR38","first-page":"9216","volume":"114","author":"SF Way","year":"2017","unstructured":"Way, S. F., Morgan, A. C., Clauset, A., & Larremore, D. B. (2017). The misleading narrative of the canonical faculty productivity trajectory. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114(44), 9216\u20139223.","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"issue":"22","key":"4027_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10729","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1817431116","volume":"116","author":"SF Way","year":"2019","unstructured":"Way, S. F., Morgan, A. C., Larremore, D. B., & Clauset, A. (2019). Productivity, prominence, and the effects of academic environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(22), 10729\u201310733.","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"issue":"1","key":"4027_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"503","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-019-03183-z","volume":"121","author":"Z Xie","year":"2019","unstructured":"Xie, Z. (2019). A cooperative game model for the multimodality of coauthorship networks. Scientometrics,121(1), 503\u2013519.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"},{"issue":"3","key":"4027_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101065","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2020.101065","volume":"14","author":"Z Xie","year":"2020","unstructured":"Xie, Z. (2020a). Predicting publication productivity for researchers: A piecewise Poisson model. Journal of Informetrics, 14(3), 101065.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"4027_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101036","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2020.101036","volume":"14","author":"Z Xie","year":"2020","unstructured":"Xie, Z. (2020b). Predicting the number of coauthors for researchers: A learning model. Journal of Informetrics, 14(2), 101036.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"key":"4027_CR46","unstructured":"Xie, Z. (2020c). A prediction method of publication productivity for researchers. IEEE Transactions on Computational Social Systems. (to be accepted)"},{"key":"4027_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1140\/epjds\/s13688-018-0134-z","volume":"7","author":"Z Xie","year":"2018","unstructured":"Xie, Z., Li, M., Li, J. P., Duan, X. J., & Ouyang, Z. Z. (2018). Feature analysis of multidisciplinary scientific collaboration patterns based on PNAS. EPJ Data Science,7, 1\u201317.","journal-title":"EPJ Data Science"},{"key":"4027_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"299","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2016.02.001","volume":"10","author":"Z Xie","year":"2016","unstructured":"Xie, Z., Ouyang, Z. Z., & Li, J. P. (2016). A geometric graph model for coauthorship networks. Journal of Informetrics, 10, 299\u2013311.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"4027_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"305","DOI":"10.1002\/asi.23935","volume":"69","author":"Z Xie","year":"2018","unstructured":"Xie, Z., Ouyang, Z. Z., Li, J. P., Dong, E. M., & Yi, D. Y. (2018). Modelling transition phenomena of scientific coauthorship networks. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 69(2), 305\u2013317.","journal-title":"Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology"},{"key":"4027_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"92248","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2019.2927011","volume":"7","author":"JG Xu","year":"2019","unstructured":"Xu, J. G., Li, M. J., Jiang, J., Ge, B. F., & Cai, M. S. (2019). Early prediction of scientific impact based on multi-bibliographic features and convolutional neural network. IEEE Access,7, 92248\u201392258.","journal-title":"IEEE Access"},{"issue":"4","key":"4027_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"288","DOI":"10.1016\/j.joi.2008.09.002","volume":"2","author":"Y Ye Fred","year":"2008","unstructured":"Ye Fred, Y., & Rousseauc, R. (2008). The power law model and total career $$h$$-index sequences. Journal of Informetrics, 2(4), 288\u2013297.","journal-title":"Journal of Informetrics"},{"issue":"2","key":"4027_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1233","DOI":"10.1007\/s11192-014-1279-6","volume":"101","author":"T Yu","year":"2014","unstructured":"Yu, T., Yu, G., Li, P. Y., & Wang, L. (2014). Citation impact prediction for scientific papers using stepwise regression analysis. Scientometrics,101(2), 1233\u20131252.","journal-title":"Scientometrics"}],"container-title":["Scientometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11192-021-04027-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11192-021-04027-5\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11192-021-04027-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,3]],"date-time":"2023-02-03T15:52:59Z","timestamp":1675439579000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11192-021-04027-5"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"7","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,7]]}},"alternative-id":["4027"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11192-021-04027-5","relation":{},"ISSN":["0138-9130","1588-2861"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0138-9130","type":"print"},{"value":"1588-2861","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,5]]},"assertion":[{"value":"1 November 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"30 April 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"5 June 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}}]}}