{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,19]],"date-time":"2026-03-19T04:59:12Z","timestamp":1773896352784,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":85,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,22]],"date-time":"2011-10-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1319241600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Synthese"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,7]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-011-0024-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,21]],"date-time":"2011-10-21T08:12:46Z","timestamp":1319184766000},"page":"269-292","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":52,"title":["The psychology and rationality of decisions from experience"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"187","author":[{"given":"Ralph","family":"Hertwig","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"24_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"503","DOI":"10.2307\/1907921","volume":"21","author":"M. Allais","year":"1953","unstructured":"Allais M. (1953) Le comportement de l\u2019homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l\u2019ecole americaine. Econometrica 21: 503\u2013546","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"24_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-7629-1","volume-title":"Expected utility hypotheses and the Allais paradox","author":"M. Allais","year":"1979","unstructured":"Allais M. (1979) The foundations of a positive theory of choice involving risk and a criticism of the postulates and axioms of the American school. In: Allais M., Hagen O. (eds) Expected utility hypotheses and the Allais paradox. Reidel, Dordrecht"},{"key":"24_CR3","unstructured":"Arl\u00f3-Costa H., Helzner J. (2009) Iterated random selection as intermediate between risk and uncertainty. In: Augustin T., Coolen F. P. A., Moral S., Troffaes M. C. M. (eds) Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. Retrieved August 25, 2009, from http:\/\/repository.cmu.edu\/philosophy\/17 , Dordrecht"},{"key":"24_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.443","volume":"16","author":"G. Barron","year":"2003","unstructured":"Barron G., Erev I. (2003) Small feedback-based decisions and their limited correspondence to description-based decisions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 16: 215\u2013233","journal-title":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making"},{"key":"24_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1287\/opre.33.1.1","volume":"33","author":"D. E. Bell","year":"1985","unstructured":"Bell D. E. (1985) Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty. Operations Research 33: 1\u201327","journal-title":"Operations Research"},{"key":"24_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-3711-7","volume-title":"Bandit problem: sequenrial allocation of experiments","author":"D.A. Berry","year":"1985","unstructured":"Berry D.A., Fristedt B. (1985) Bandit problem: sequenrial allocation of experiments. Chapman and Hall, London"},{"key":"24_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.113.2.409","volume":"113","author":"E. Brandst\u00e4tter","year":"2006","unstructured":"Brandst\u00e4tter E., Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R. (2006) The priority heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review 113: 409\u2013432","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"281","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.115.1.281","volume":"115","author":"E. Brandst\u00e4tter","year":"2008","unstructured":"Brandst\u00e4tter E., Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R. (2008) Risky choice with heuristics: Reply to Birnbaum (2008), Johnson, Schulte-Mecklenbeck & Willemsen (2008) and Rieger and Wang. Psychological Review 115: 281\u2013290","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR9","unstructured":"Bruni, F. (2003, Aug 26). San Giuseppe Vesuviano Journal: Who\u2019s afraid of Vesuvius? (Pompeii is history). New York Times. Retrieved August 25, 2009, from http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2003\/08\/26\/world\/san-giuseppe-vesuviano-journal-who-s-afraid-of-vesuvius-pompeii-is-history.html ."},{"key":"24_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"538","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.11.3.538","volume":"11","author":"J. R. Busemeyer","year":"1985","unstructured":"Busemeyer J. R. (1985) Decision making under uncertainty: A comparison of simple scalability, fixed-sample, and sequential-sampling models. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 11: 538\u2013564","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition"},{"key":"24_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-3445.121.2.177","volume":"121","author":"J. R. Busemeyer","year":"1992","unstructured":"Busemeyer J. R., Myung I. J. (1992) An adaptive approach to human decision making: Learning theory, decision theory, and human performance. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 121: 177\u2013194","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: General"},{"key":"24_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1037\/14496-000","volume-title":"Stochastic models for learning","author":"R. R. Bush","year":"1955","unstructured":"Bush R. R., Mosteller F. (1955) Stochastic models for learning. Wiley, New York"},{"key":"24_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"876","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04766","volume":"441","author":"N. D. Daw","year":"2006","unstructured":"Daw N. D., O\u2019Doherty J. P., Dayan P., Seymour B., Dolan R. J. (2006) Cortical substrates for exploratory decisions in humans. Nature 441: 876\u2013879","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"24_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"177","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.114.1.177","volume":"114","author":"J. Denrell","year":"2007","unstructured":"Denrell J. (2007) Adaptive learning and risk taking. Psychological Review 114: 177\u2013187","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"380","DOI":"10.1037\/h0053870","volume":"51","author":"W. Edwards","year":"1954","unstructured":"Edwards W. (1954) The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin 51: 380\u2013417","journal-title":"Psychological Bulletin"},{"key":"24_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"109","DOI":"10.1037\/h0038674","volume":"69","author":"W. Edwards","year":"1962","unstructured":"Edwards W. (1962) Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions. Psychological Review 69: 109\u2013135","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR17","first-page":"17","volume-title":"Formal representation of human judgment","author":"W. Edwards","year":"1968","unstructured":"Edwards W. (1968) Conservatism in human information processing. In: Kleinmuntz B. (eds) Formal representation of human judgment. Wiley, New York, pp 17\u201352"},{"key":"24_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"643","DOI":"10.2307\/1884324","volume":"75","author":"D. Ellsberg","year":"1961","unstructured":"Ellsberg D. (1961) Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics 75: 643\u2013669","journal-title":"Quarterly Journal of Economics"},{"key":"24_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"283","DOI":"10.2307\/2951614","volume":"62","author":"L. G. Epstein","year":"1994","unstructured":"Epstein L. G., Wang T. (1994) Intertemporal asset pricing under Knightian uncertainty. Econometrica 62: 283\u2013322","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"24_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"912","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.112.4.912","volume":"112","author":"I. Erev","year":"2005","unstructured":"Erev I., Barron G. (2005) On adaptation, maximization, and reinforcement learning among cognitive strategies. Psychological Review 112: 912\u2013931","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR21","first-page":"3","volume-title":"Information sampling and adaptive cognition","author":"K. Fiedler","year":"2006","unstructured":"Fiedler K., Juslin P. (2006) Taking the interface between mind and environment seriously. In: Fiedler K., Juslin P. (eds) Information sampling and adaptive cognition. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 3\u201329"},{"key":"24_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.1017\/S1930297500002370","volume":"1","author":"C. R. Fox","year":"2006","unstructured":"Fox C. R., Hadar L. (2006) \u201cDecisions from experience\u201d =\u00a0 sampling error +\u00a0 prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004). Judgment and Decision Making 1: 159\u2013161","journal-title":"Judgment and Decision Making"},{"key":"24_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1086\/256692","volume":"56","author":"M. Friedman","year":"1948","unstructured":"Friedman M., Savage L. J. (1948) The utility analysis of choices involving risks. Journal of Political Economy 56: 279\u2013304","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"24_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00486156","volume":"53","author":"P. G\u00e4rdenfors","year":"1982","unstructured":"G\u00e4rdenfors P., Sahlin N.-E. (1982) Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making. Synthese 53: 361\u2013386","journal-title":"Synthese"},{"key":"24_CR25","volume-title":"Calculated risks: How to know when numbers deceive you","author":"G. Gigerenzer","year":"2002","unstructured":"Gigerenzer G. (2002) Calculated risks: How to know when numbers deceive you. Simon and Schuster, New York"},{"key":"24_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"623","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2005.00608.x","volume":"25","author":"G. Gigerenzer","year":"2005","unstructured":"Gigerenzer G., Hertwig R., van den Broek E., Fasolo B., Katsikopoulos K. V. (2005) \u201cA 30% chance of rain tomorrow\u201d: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?. \u00a0\u00a0Risk Analysis 25: 623\u2013629","journal-title":"\u00a0\u00a0Risk Analysis"},{"key":"24_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"684","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.4.684","volume":"102","author":"G. Gigerenzer","year":"1995","unstructured":"Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. (1995) How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review 102: 684\u2013704","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"240","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.2007.01883.x","volume":"18","author":"D. A. Gottlieb","year":"2007","unstructured":"Gottlieb D. A., Weiss T., Chapman G. B. (2007) The format in which uncertainty information is presented affects decision biases. Psychological Science 18: 240\u2013246","journal-title":"Psychological Science"},{"key":"24_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.665","volume":"23","author":"R. Hau","year":"2010","unstructured":"Hau R., Pleskac T. J, Hertwig R. (2010) Decisions from experience and statistical probabilities: Why they trigger different choices than a priori probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 23: 48\u201368","journal-title":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making"},{"key":"24_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.1002\/bdm.598","volume":"21","author":"R. Hau","year":"2008","unstructured":"Hau R., Pleskac T. J., Kiefer J., Hertwig R. (2008) The description\u2013experience gap in risky choice: The role of sample size and experienced probabilities. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 21: 493\u2013518","journal-title":"Journal of Behavioral Decision Making"},{"key":"24_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"111","DOI":"10.2307\/252685","volume":"47","author":"J. C. Hershey","year":"1980","unstructured":"Hershey J. C., Schoemaker P. J. H. (1980) Risk taking and problem context in the domain of losses: An expected utility analysis. Journal of Risk and Insurance 47: 111\u2013132","journal-title":"Journal of Risk and Insurance"},{"key":"24_CR32","unstructured":"Herszenhorn, D. M. (2008, Oct. 7). Bailout plan wins approval; Democrats vow tighter rules. New York Times. Retrieved August 25, 2009, from http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/10\/04\/business\/economy\/04bailout.html ."},{"key":"24_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"534","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0956-7976.2004.00715.x","volume":"15","author":"R. Hertwig","year":"2004","unstructured":"Hertwig R., Barron G., Weber E. U., Erev I. (2004) Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice. Psychological Science 15: 534\u2013539","journal-title":"Psychological Science"},{"key":"24_CR34","first-page":"72","volume-title":"Information sampling and adaptive cognition","author":"R. Hertwig","year":"2006","unstructured":"Hertwig R., Barron G., Weber E. U., Erev I. (2006) Decisions from experience: Sampling and updating of information. In: Fiedler K., Juslin P. (eds) Information sampling and adaptive cognition. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 72\u201391"},{"key":"24_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"517","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tics.2009.09.004","volume":"13","author":"R. Hertwig","year":"2009","unstructured":"Hertwig R., Erev I. (2009) The description\u2013experience gap in risky choice. Trends in Cognitive Sciences 13: 517\u2013523","journal-title":"Trends in Cognitive Sciences"},{"key":"24_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"621","DOI":"10.1037\/0278-7393.31.4.621","volume":"35","author":"R. Hertwig","year":"2005","unstructured":"Hertwig R., Pachur T., Kurzenh\u00e4user S. (2005) Judgments of risk frequencies: Tests of possible cognitive mechanisms. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition 35: 621\u2013642","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition"},{"key":"24_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199216093.003.0010","volume-title":"The probabilistic mind: Prospects for rational models of cognition","author":"R. Hertwig","year":"2008","unstructured":"Hertwig R., Pleskac T. J. (2008) The game of life: How small samples render choice simpler. In: Chater N., Oaksford M. (eds) The probabilistic mind: Prospects for rational models of cognition. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, pp 209\u2013235"},{"key":"24_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"225","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cognition.2009.12.009","volume":"115","author":"R. Hertwig","year":"2010","unstructured":"Hertwig R., Pleskac T. J. (2010) Decisions from experience: Why small samples?. \u00a0\u00a0Cognition 115: 225\u2013237","journal-title":"\u00a0\u00a0Cognition"},{"key":"24_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1002\/047001332X.ch11","volume-title":"Thinking. Psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment, and decision making","author":"R. Hertwig","year":"2003","unstructured":"Hertwig R., Todd P. M. (2003) More is not always better: The benefits of cognitive limits. In: Hardman D., Macchi L. (eds) Thinking. Psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment, and decision making. Wiley, Chichester, UK, pp 213\u2013231"},{"key":"24_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"116","DOI":"10.1037\/h0047807","volume":"57","author":"P. J. Hoffman","year":"1960","unstructured":"Hoffman P. J. (1960) The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment. Psychological Bulletin 57: 116\u2013131","journal-title":"Psychological Bulletin"},{"key":"24_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0285(92)90002-J","volume":"24","author":"R. M. Hogarth","year":"1992","unstructured":"Hogarth R. M., Einhorn H. J. (1992) Order effects in belief updating: The belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychology 24: 1\u201355","journal-title":"Cognitive Psychology"},{"key":"24_CR42","first-page":"92","volume-title":"Information sampling and adaptive cognition","author":"P. Juslin","year":"2006","unstructured":"Juslin P., Fiedler K., Chater N. (2006) Less is more in covariation detection\u2014or is it?. In: Fiedler K., Juslin P. (eds) Information sampling and adaptive cognition. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 92\u2013123"},{"key":"24_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.2307\/1914185","volume":"47","author":"D. Kahneman","year":"1979","unstructured":"Kahneman D., Tversky A. (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47: 263\u2013291","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"24_CR44","volume-title":"Choices, values, and frames","year":"2000","unstructured":"Kahneman, D., Tversky, A. (eds) (2000) Choices, values, and frames. Cambridge University Press, New York"},{"key":"24_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1016\/0010-0277(95)92814-G","volume":"56","author":"Y. Kareev","year":"1995","unstructured":"Kareev Y. (1995) Through a narrow window: Working memory capacity and the detection of covariation. Cognition 56: 263\u2013269","journal-title":"Cognition"},{"key":"24_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"397","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.107.2.397","volume":"107","author":"Y. Kareev","year":"2000","unstructured":"Kareev Y. (2000) Seven (indeed, plus or minus two) and the detection of correlations. Psychological Review 107: 397\u2013402","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1037\/h0047013","volume":"64","author":"L. Katz","year":"1962","unstructured":"Katz L. (1962) Monetary incentive and range of payoffs as determiners of risk taking. Journal of Experimental Psychology 64: 541\u2013544","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology"},{"key":"24_CR48","volume-title":"Risk, uncertainty and profit","author":"F. H. Knight","year":"1921","unstructured":"Knight F. H. (1921) Risk, uncertainty and profit. Hart, Schaffner & Marx; Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston"},{"key":"24_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"206","DOI":"10.1057\/gpp.1984.12","volume":"9","author":"H. Kunreuther","year":"1984","unstructured":"Kunreuther H. (1984) Causes of underinsurance against natural disasters. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 9: 206\u2013220","journal-title":"Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance"},{"key":"24_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.2307\/2025161","volume":"71","author":"I. Levi","year":"1974","unstructured":"Levi I. (1974) On indeterminate probabilities. Journal of Philosophy 71: 391\u2013418","journal-title":"Journal of Philosophy"},{"key":"24_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.2307\/2297651","volume":"53","author":"G. Loomes","year":"1986","unstructured":"Loomes G., Sugden R. (1986) Disappointment and dynamic consistency in choice under uncertainty. Review of Economic Studies 53: 271\u2013282","journal-title":"Review of Economic Studies"},{"key":"24_CR52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.9.1.137","volume":"9","author":"L. L. Lopes","year":"1983","unstructured":"Lopes L. L. (1983) Some thoughts on the psychological concept of risk. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 9: 137\u2013144","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"},{"key":"24_CR53","volume-title":"Games and decisions","author":"R. D. Luce","year":"1957","unstructured":"Luce R. D., Raiffa H. (1957) Games and decisions. Dover Publications Inc, New York"},{"key":"24_CR54","first-page":"249","volume-title":"Handbook of mathematical psychology","author":"R. D. Luce","year":"1965","unstructured":"Luce R. D., Suppes P. (1965) Preference, utility, and subjective probability. In: Luce R. D., Bush R. R., Galanter E. (eds) Handbook of mathematical psychology. Wiley, New York, pp 249\u2013410"},{"key":"24_CR55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-15248-3_1","volume-title":"Risk and uncertainty","author":"K. R. MacCrimmon","year":"1968","unstructured":"MacCrimmon K. R. (1968) Descriptive and normative implications of the decision-theory postulates. In: Borch K. H., Mossin J. (eds) Risk and uncertainty. St. Martin\u2019s Press, New York, pp 3\u201323"},{"key":"24_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.103.2.309","volume":"103","author":"J. G. March","year":"1996","unstructured":"March J. G. (1996) Learning to be risk averse. Psychological Review 103: 309\u2013319","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1086\/257177","volume":"60","author":"H. Markowitz","year":"1952","unstructured":"Markowitz H. (1952) The utility of wealth. Journal of Political Economy 60: 151\u2013158","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"24_CR58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4366","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0508697103","volume":"103","author":"G. Mastrolorenzo","year":"2006","unstructured":"Mastrolorenzo G., Petrone P., Pappalardo L., Sheridan M. F. (2006) The Avellino 3780-yr-B.P. catastrophe as a worst-case scenario for a future eruption at Vesuvius. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103: 4366\u20134370","journal-title":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"},{"key":"24_CR59","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"910","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-2909.126.6.910","volume":"126","author":"B. A. Mellers","year":"2000","unstructured":"Mellers B. A. (2000) Choice and the relative pleasure of consequences. Psychological Bulletin 126: 910\u2013924","journal-title":"Psychological Bulletin"},{"key":"24_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"347","DOI":"10.1037\/0096-1523.18.2.347","volume":"18","author":"B. A. Mellers","year":"1992","unstructured":"Mellers B. A., Chang S.-J., Birnbaum M. H., Ordonez L. D. (1992) Preferences, prices, and ratings in risky decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 18: 347\u2013361","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"},{"key":"24_CR61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1037\/h0043158","volume":"63","author":"G. A. Miller","year":"1956","unstructured":"Miller G. A. (1956) The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review 63: 81\u201397","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR62","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1086\/257106","volume":"59","author":"F. Mosteller","year":"1951","unstructured":"Mosteller F., Nogee P. (1951) An experimental measurement of utility. Journal of Political Economy 59: 371\u2013404","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"24_CR63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"483","DOI":"10.2466\/pr0.1962.10.2.483","volume":"10","author":"J. Myers","year":"1962","unstructured":"Myers J., Katz L. (1962) Range of payoffs and feedback in risk taking. Psychological Reports 10: 483\u2013486","journal-title":"Psychological Reports"},{"key":"24_CR64","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"306","DOI":"10.1037\/h0042499","volume":"60","author":"J. L. Myers","year":"1960","unstructured":"Myers J. L., Sadler E. (1960) Effects of range of payoffs as a variable in risk taking. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 60: 306\u2013309","journal-title":"Journal of Experimental Psychology: General"},{"key":"24_CR65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.2307\/1416964","volume":"61","author":"M. G. Preston","year":"1948","unstructured":"Preston M. G., Baratta P. (1948) An experimental study of the auction value of an uncertain outcome. American Journal of Psychology 61: 183\u2013193","journal-title":"American Journal of Psychology"},{"key":"24_CR66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"168","DOI":"10.1016\/j.obhdp.2008.02.001","volume":"106","author":"T. Rakow","year":"2008","unstructured":"Rakow T., Demes K. A., Newell B. R. (2008) Biased samples not mode of presentation: Re-examining the apparent underweighting of rare events in experience-based choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 106: 168\u2013179","journal-title":"Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes"},{"key":"24_CR67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"980","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1887231","volume":"253","author":"L. A. Real","year":"1991","unstructured":"Real L. A. (1991) Animal choice behavior and the evolution of cognitive architecture. Science 253: 980\u2013986","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"24_CR68","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S108","DOI":"10.1086\/285399","volume":"140","author":"L. A. Real","year":"1992","unstructured":"Real L. A. (1992) Information processing and the evolutionary ecology of cognitive architecture. American Naturalist 140: S108\u2013S145","journal-title":"American Naturalist"},{"key":"24_CR69","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"539","DOI":"10.1093\/cje\/22.5.539","volume":"22","author":"J. Runde","year":"1998","unstructured":"Runde J. (1998) Clarifying Frank Knight\u2019s discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty. Cambridge Journal of Economics 22: 539\u2013546","journal-title":"Cambridge Journal of Economics"},{"key":"24_CR70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198288640.001.0001","volume-title":"Bounded rationality in macroeconomics","author":"T. J. Sargent","year":"1993","unstructured":"Sargent T. J. (1993) Bounded rationality in macroeconomics. Oxford University Press, New York"},{"key":"24_CR71","unstructured":"Savage, L. J. (1954\/1972). The foundations of statistics (2nd ed.). New York: Dover Publications."},{"key":"24_CR72","volume-title":"Models of bounded rationality","author":"H. A. Simon","year":"1982","unstructured":"Simon H. A. (1982) Models of bounded rationality. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA"},{"key":"24_CR73","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1086\/258464","volume":"69","author":"G. J. Stigler","year":"1961","unstructured":"Stigler G. J. (1961) The economics of information. Journal of Political Economy 69: 213\u2013225","journal-title":"Journal of Political Economy"},{"key":"24_CR74","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1109\/TNN.1998.712192","volume-title":"Reinforcement learning: An introduction","author":"R. S. Sutton","year":"1998","unstructured":"Sutton R. S., Barto A. G. (1998) Reinforcement learning: An introduction. The MIT Press, Cambridge; MA"},{"key":"24_CR75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"269","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.102.2.269","volume":"102","author":"A. Tversky","year":"1995","unstructured":"Tversky A., Fox C. R. (1995) Weighing risk and uncertainty. Psychological Review 102: 269\u2013283","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR76","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00122574","volume":"5","author":"A. Tversky","year":"1992","unstructured":"Tversky A., Kahneman D. (1992) Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5: 297\u2013323","journal-title":"Journal of Risk and Uncertainty"},{"key":"24_CR77","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9280.2009.02319.x","volume":"20","author":"C. Ungemach","year":"2009","unstructured":"Ungemach C., Chater N., Stewart N. (2009) Are probabilities overweighted or underweighted, when rare outcomes are experienced (rarely)?. \u00a0\u00a0Psychological Science 20: 473\u2013479","journal-title":"\u00a0\u00a0Psychological Science"},{"key":"24_CR78","volume-title":"Theory of games and economic behavior","author":"J. Von Neumann","year":"1947","unstructured":"Von Neumann J., Morgenstern O. (1947) Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ"},{"key":"24_CR79","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"263","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-2681(95)00063-1","volume":"29","author":"N. J. Vriend","year":"1996","unstructured":"Vriend N. J. (1996) Rational behavior and economic theory. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 29: 263\u2013285","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization"},{"key":"24_CR80","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3472-7","volume-title":"Statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities","author":"P. Walley","year":"1991","unstructured":"Walley P. (1991) Statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities. Chapman and Hall, London"},{"key":"24_CR81","unstructured":"Weber, E. U. (in press). Doing the right thing willingly: Using the insights of behavioral decision research for better environmental decisions. In E. Shafir (Ed.), The behavioral foundations of policy. Princeton: Princeton University Press."},{"key":"24_CR82","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"430","DOI":"10.1037\/0033-295X.111.2.430","volume":"111","author":"E. U. Weber","year":"2004","unstructured":"Weber E. U., Shafir S., Blais A.-R. (2004) Predicting risk sensitivity in humans and lower animals: Behavioral decision theory and environmental policy. Psychological Review 111: 430\u2013445","journal-title":"Psychological Review"},{"key":"24_CR83","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"115","DOI":"10.1007\/BF02283517","volume":"19","author":"D. A. Wehrung","year":"1989","unstructured":"Wehrung D. A. (1989) Risk taking over gains and losses: A study of oil executives. Annals of Operations Research 19: 115\u2013139","journal-title":"Annals of Operations Research"},{"key":"24_CR84","unstructured":"Wilford, J. N. (2006, Mar 7). Long before burying Pompeii, Vesuvius vented its wrath. New York Times. Retrieved August 25, 2009, from http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2006\/03\/07\/science\/07volc.html ."},{"key":"24_CR85","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780198508632.003.0002","volume-title":"etc.: Frequency processing and cognition","author":"R. T. Zacks","year":"2002","unstructured":"Zacks R. T., Hasher L. (2002) Frequency processing: A twenty-five year perspective. In: Sedlmeier P., Betsch T. (eds) etc.: Frequency processing and cognition. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 21\u201336"}],"container-title":["Synthese"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11229-011-0024-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11229-011-0024-4\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11229-011-0024-4","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,13]],"date-time":"2024-04-13T23:51:17Z","timestamp":1713052277000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11229-011-0024-4"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,22]]},"references-count":85,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2012,7]]}},"alternative-id":["24"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11229-011-0024-4","relation":{},"ISSN":["0039-7857","1573-0964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0039-7857","type":"print"},{"value":"1573-0964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2011,10,22]]}}}