{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,1]],"date-time":"2026-07-01T06:47:05Z","timestamp":1782888425270,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,8]],"date-time":"2016-07-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1467936000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000267","name":"Arts and Humanities Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["AH\/L011646\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["AH\/L011646\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000267","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Synthese"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,2]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-016-1150-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,8]],"date-time":"2016-07-08T20:02:25Z","timestamp":1468008145000},"page":"571-585","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":21,"title":["Towards a realistic success-to-truth inference for scientific realism"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"196","author":[{"given":"Peter","family":"Vickers","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"1150_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.2307\/2216179","volume":"7","author":"R Boyd","year":"1973","unstructured":"Boyd, R. (1973). Realism, underdetermination, and a causal theory of evidence. Nous, 7, 1\u201312.","journal-title":"Nous"},{"key":"1150_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-662-08129-7_6","volume-title":"Knowledge and the world: Challenges beyond the science wars","author":"M Carrier","year":"2004","unstructured":"Carrier, M. (2004). Experimental success and the revelation of reality: The miracle argument for scientific realism. In M. Carrier, et al. (Eds.), Knowledge and the world: Challenges beyond the science wars (pp. 137\u2013161). Heidelberg: Springer."},{"key":"1150_CR3","volume-title":"Realism and truth","author":"M Devitt","year":"1997","unstructured":"Devitt, M. (1997). Realism and truth (2nd ed.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.","edition":"2"},{"key":"1150_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1016\/j.shpsa.2015.04.002","volume":"52","author":"JA D\u00edez","year":"2015","unstructured":"D\u00edez, J. A., & Carman, C. (2015). Did Ptolemy make novel predictions? Launching Ptolemaic astronomy into the scientific realism debate. Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science, 52, 20\u201334.","journal-title":"Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science"},{"issue":"5","key":"1150_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1283","DOI":"10.1086\/662280","volume":"78","author":"L Fahrbach","year":"2011","unstructured":"Fahrbach, L. (2011). Theory change and degrees of success. Philosophy of Science, 78(5), 1283\u20131292.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR6","first-page":"115","volume-title":"The Routledge companion to the philosophy of science","author":"A H\u00e1jek","year":"2008","unstructured":"H\u00e1jek, A., & Joyce, J. M. (2008). Confirmation. In S. Psillos & M. Curd (Eds.), The Routledge companion to the philosophy of science (pp. 115\u2013128). London: Routledge."},{"key":"1150_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0198250371.001.0001","volume-title":"Hume\u2019s problem: Induction and the justification of belief","author":"C Howson","year":"2000","unstructured":"Howson, C. (2000). Hume\u2019s problem: Induction and the justification of belief. Oxford: Clarendon Press."},{"issue":"2","key":"1150_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1093\/analys\/ant012","volume":"73","author":"C Howson","year":"2013","unstructured":"Howson, C. (2013). Exhuming the no miracles argument. Analysis, 73(2), 205\u20132011.","journal-title":"Analysis"},{"key":"1150_CR9","volume-title":"The advancement of science: Science without legend, objectivity without illusions","author":"P Kitcher","year":"1993","unstructured":"Kitcher, P. (1993). The advancement of science: Science without legend, objectivity without illusions. Oxford: Oxford University Press."},{"issue":"2","key":"1150_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-009-9607-8","volume":"180","author":"J Ladyman","year":"2011","unstructured":"Ladyman, J. (2011). Structural realism versus standard scientific realism: The case of phlogiston and dephlogisticated air. Synthese, 180(2), 87\u2013101.","journal-title":"Synthese"},{"key":"1150_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"19","DOI":"10.1086\/288975","volume":"48","author":"L Laudan","year":"1981","unstructured":"Laudan, L. (1981). A confutation of convergent realism. Philosophy of Science, 48, 19\u201348.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"63","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-017-2862-1_4","volume-title":"Recent themes in the philosophy of science: Scientific realism and commonsense","author":"TD Lyons","year":"2002","unstructured":"Lyons, T. D. (2002). Scientific realism and the pessimistic meta-modus tollens. In S. Clarke & T. D. Lyons (Eds.), Recent themes in the philosophy of science: Scientific realism and commonsense (pp. 63\u201390). Dordrecht: Kluwer."},{"key":"1150_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Lyons, T. D. (2016). Structural realism versus deployment realism: A comparative evaluation. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science. doi: 10.1016\/j.shpsa.2016.06.006 .","DOI":"10.1016\/j.shpsa.2016.06.006"},{"issue":"3","key":"1150_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"320","DOI":"10.1086\/421536","volume":"71","author":"PD Magnus","year":"2004","unstructured":"Magnus, P. D., & Callender, C. (2004). Realist Ennui and the Base Rate Fallacy. Philosophy of Science, 71(3), 320\u2013338.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"1150_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"803","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/axq004","volume":"61","author":"PD Magnus","year":"2010","unstructured":"Magnus, P. D. (2010). Inductions, red herrings, and the best explanation for the mixed record of science. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 61(4), 803\u2013819.","journal-title":"British Journal for the Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR16","first-page":"197","volume-title":"Images of Science","author":"A Musgrave","year":"1985","unstructured":"Musgrave, A. (1985). Realism versus constructive empiricism. In P. M. Churchland & C. A. Hooker (Eds.), Images of Science (pp. 197\u2013221). Chicago, IL: Chicago University Press."},{"key":"1150_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198520498.001.0001","volume-title":"Niels Bohr\u2019s times","author":"A Pais","year":"1991","unstructured":"Pais, A. (1991). Niels Bohr\u2019s times. Oxford: Oxford University Press."},{"issue":"4","key":"1150_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"440","DOI":"10.1162\/POSC_a_00081","volume":"20","author":"T Pashby","year":"2012","unstructured":"Pashby, T. (2012). Dirac\u2019s prediction of the positron: A case study for the current scientific realism debate. Perspectives on Science, 20(4), 440\u2013475.","journal-title":"Perspectives on Science"},{"key":"1150_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"377","DOI":"10.1086\/676537","volume":"81","author":"D Peters","year":"2014","unstructured":"Peters, D. (2014). What elements of successful scientific theories are the correct targets for selective scientific realism? Philosophy of Science, 81, 377\u2013397.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR20","volume-title":"Scientific realism: How Science tracks truth","author":"S Psillos","year":"1999","unstructured":"Psillos, S. (1999). Scientific realism: How Science tracks truth. London: Routledge."},{"key":"1150_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/9780230234666","volume-title":"Knowing the structure of nature","author":"S Psillos","year":"2009","unstructured":"Psillos, S. (2009). Knowing the structure of nature. New York: Palgrave Macmillan."},{"key":"1150_CR22","first-page":"60","volume-title":"Mathematics, matter and method","author":"H Putnam","year":"1975","unstructured":"Putnam, H. (1975). What is mathematical truth? In H. Putnam (Ed.), Mathematics, matter and method (pp. 60\u201378). Cambridge: CUP."},{"key":"1150_CR23","volume-title":"Meaning and the moral sciences","author":"H Putnam","year":"1978","unstructured":"Putnam, H. (1978). Meaning and the moral sciences. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul."},{"key":"1150_CR24","volume-title":"Realism and the aim of science","author":"KR Popper","year":"1983","unstructured":"Popper, K. R. (1983). Realism and the aim of science. London: Routledge."},{"key":"1150_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/axs029","volume":"64","author":"DP Rowbottom","year":"2013","unstructured":"Rowbottom, D. P. (2013). Popper\u2019s measure of corroboration and $$P(h|b)$$ P ( h | b ) . British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 64, 739\u2013745.","journal-title":"British Journal for the Philosophy of Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"1150_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1080\/02698595.2013.868185","volume":"27","author":"S Ruhmkorff","year":"2013","unstructured":"Ruhmkorff, S. (2013). Global and local pessimistic meta-inductions. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science, 27(4), 409\u2013428.","journal-title":"International Studies in the Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"509","DOI":"10.1016\/j.shpsa.2005.07.007","volume":"36","author":"J Saatsi","year":"2005","unstructured":"Saatsi, J. (2005). Reconsidering the Fresnel\u2013Maxwell case study. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 36, 509\u2013538.","journal-title":"Studies in History and Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Saatsi, J. (2015) Historical inductions, old and new. Synthese. doi: 10.1007\/s11229-015-0855-5 .","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-015-0855-5"},{"issue":"1","key":"1150_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/axq008","volume":"62","author":"J Saatsi","year":"2011","unstructured":"Saatsi, J., & Vickers, P. (2011). Miraculous Success? Inconsistency and untruth in Kirchhoff\u2019s diffraction theory. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 62(1), 29\u201346.","journal-title":"British Journal for the Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR30","volume-title":"Broca\u2019s Brain: Reflections on the romance of science","author":"C Sagan","year":"1979","unstructured":"Sagan, C. (1979). Broca\u2019s Brain: Reflections on the romance of science. Manhattan: Random House."},{"issue":"2","key":"1150_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"103","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-009-9608-7","volume":"180","author":"G Schurz","year":"2011","unstructured":"Schurz, G. (2011). Structural correspondence, indirect reference, and partial truth: Phlogiston theory and Newtonian mechanics. Synthese, 180(2), 103\u2013120.","journal-title":"Synthese"},{"key":"1150_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Stanford, P. K. (2003). No Refuge for Realism: Selective Confirmation and the History of Science. Philosophy of Science, 70(5), 913\u2013925. PSA Proceedings.","DOI":"10.1086\/377377"},{"key":"1150_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0195174089.001.0001","volume-title":"Exceeding our grasp","author":"PK Stanford","year":"2006","unstructured":"Stanford, P. K. (2006). Exceeding our grasp. Oxford: OUP."},{"key":"1150_CR34","first-page":"379","volume":"18","author":"PK Stanford","year":"2009","unstructured":"Stanford, P. K. (2009). Author\u2019s response, in grasping at realist straws, a review symposium of Stanford (2006). Metascience, 18, 379\u2013390.","journal-title":"Metascience"},{"key":"1150_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1086\/426851","volume":"72","author":"D Turner","year":"2004","unstructured":"Turner, D. (2004). Local underdetermination in historical science. Philosophy of Science, 72, 209\u2013230.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0198244274.001.0001","volume-title":"The scientific image","author":"BC Fraassen Van","year":"1980","unstructured":"Van Fraassen, B. C. (1980). The scientific image. Oxford: Clarendon Press."},{"key":"1150_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1063\/1.3066934","volume-title":"Worlds in collision","author":"I Velikovsky","year":"1950","unstructured":"Velikovsky, I. (1950). Worlds in collision. Garden City, NY: Doubleday & Co."},{"issue":"1","key":"1150_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s13194-010-0010-6","volume":"2","author":"P Vickers","year":"2012","unstructured":"Vickers, P. (2012). Historical magic in old quantum theory? European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 2(1), 1\u201319.","journal-title":"European Journal for Philosophy of Science"},{"issue":"2","key":"1150_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"189","DOI":"10.1086\/670297","volume":"80","author":"P Vickers","year":"2013","unstructured":"Vickers, P. (2013a). A confrontation of convergent realism. Philosophy of Science, 80(2), 189\u2013211.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199692026.001.0001","volume-title":"Understanding inconsistent science","author":"P Vickers","year":"2013","unstructured":"Vickers, P. (2013b). Understanding inconsistent science. Oxford: OUP."},{"issue":"5","key":"1150_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1361","DOI":"10.1086\/508974","volume":"72","author":"I Votsis","year":"2005","unstructured":"Votsis, I. (2005). The upward path to structural realism. Philosophy of Science, 72(5), 1361\u20131372.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"issue":"5","key":"1150_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1223","DOI":"10.1086\/662535","volume":"78","author":"I Votsis","year":"2011","unstructured":"Votsis, I. (2011a). The prospective stance in realism. Philosophy of Science, 78(5), 1223\u20131234.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"1150_CR43","volume-title":"Structure, objects and causality (Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science), chap. 3","author":"I Votsis","year":"2011","unstructured":"Votsis, I. (2011b). How not to be a realist or why we ought to make it safe for closet structural realists to come out. In D. Rickles (Ed.), Structure, objects and causality (Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science), chap. 3. Dordrecht: Kluwer."},{"key":"1150_CR44","first-page":"105","volume-title":"Scientific Structuralism (Boston Studies in the Philosophy and History of Science)","author":"I Votsis","year":"2011","unstructured":"Votsis, I. (2011c). Structural realism: Continuity and its limits. In A. Bokulich & P. Bokulich (Eds.), Scientific Structuralism (Boston Studies in the Philosophy and History of Science) (pp. 105\u2013117). New York: Springer."},{"key":"1150_CR45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"99","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1746-8361.1989.tb00933.x","volume":"43","author":"J Worrall","year":"1989","unstructured":"Worrall, J. (1989). Structural realism: The best of both worlds? Dialectica, 43, 99\u2013124.","journal-title":"Dialectica"},{"key":"1150_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Worrall, J. (1994). How to remain (reasonably) optimistic: scientific realism and the luminiferous ether. In PSA: Proceedings of the biennial meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 1994, Volume One: Contributed Papers (1994), pp. 334\u2013342.","DOI":"10.1086\/psaprocbienmeetp.1994.1.193038"}],"container-title":["Synthese"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11229-016-1150-9\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11229-016-1150-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11229-016-1150-9","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11229-016-1150-9.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,18]],"date-time":"2024-06-18T04:55:57Z","timestamp":1718686557000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11229-016-1150-9"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,8]]},"references-count":46,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,2]]}},"alternative-id":["1150"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11229-016-1150-9","relation":{},"ISSN":["0039-7857","1573-0964"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0039-7857","type":"print"},{"value":"1573-0964","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"25 September 2015","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"24 June 2016","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"8 July 2016","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}}]}}