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Dispositions are normally analyzed by providing a meaning to disposition ascriptions like \u2018This piece of salt is soluble\u2019. Philosophers like Carnap, Goodman, Quine, Lewis and many others have proposed analyses of such disposition ascriptions. In this paper we will argue with Quine (\u2018Natural Kinds\u2019, 1970) that the proper analysis of ascriptions of the form \u2018<jats:italic>x<\/jats:italic>is disposed to<jats:italic>m<\/jats:italic>(when C)\u2019, where \u2018<jats:italic>x<\/jats:italic>\u2019 denotes an object, \u2018<jats:italic>m<\/jats:italic>\u2019 a manifestation, and \u2018<jats:italic>C<\/jats:italic>\u2019 a condition, goes like this: (i) \u2018<jats:italic>x<\/jats:italic>is of natural kind<jats:italic>k<\/jats:italic>\u2019, and (ii) the generic \u2018<jats:italic>k<\/jats:italic>s are<jats:italic>m<\/jats:italic>(when C)\u2019 is true. For the analysis of the generic, we propose an analysis in terms of causal powers: \u2018<jats:italic>k<\/jats:italic>s (when C) have the causal power to<jats:italic>m<\/jats:italic>\u2019. The latter, in turn, is analyzed in a very precise way, making use of Pearl\u2019s probabilistic graphical causal models. We will show how this natural kind-analysis improves on standard conditional analyses of dispositions by avoiding the standard counterexamples, and that it gives rise to precise observable criteria under which the disposition ascription is true.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-019-02184-y","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,27]],"date-time":"2019-03-27T16:38:33Z","timestamp":1553704713000},"page":"3059-3084","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Natural kinds and dispositions: a causal analysis"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"198","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6819-6685","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robert","family":"van Rooij","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katrin","family":"Schulz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,3,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"2184_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"227","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9213.00098","volume":"48","author":"A Bird","year":"1998","unstructured":"Bird, A. 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