{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T07:35:25Z","timestamp":1740123325362,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,2]],"date-time":"2020-09-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1599004800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,2]],"date-time":"2020-09-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1599004800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004281","name":"Narodowe Centrum Nauki","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2015\/17\/B\/HS1\/02279"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2015\/17\/B\/HS1\/02279"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004281","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000781","name":"European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["805498"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["805498"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000781","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Synthese"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>I claim that objective consequentialism (OC) faces a problem stemming from the existence in some situations of a plurality of chances relevant to the outcomes of an agent\u2019s acts. I suggest that this phenomenon bears structural resemblance to the well-known Reference Class problem. I outline a few ways in which one could attempt to deal with the issue, suggesting that it is the higher-level chance that should be employed by OC.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-020-02851-5","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,2]],"date-time":"2020-09-02T05:02:22Z","timestamp":1599022942000},"page":"12089-12105","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Objective consequentialism and the plurality of chances"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"198","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7152-4544","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Leszek","family":"Wro\u0144ski","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,2]]},"reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"2851_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"988","DOI":"10.1086\/687932","volume":"83","author":"G Bana","year":"2016","unstructured":"Bana, G. (2016). On the formal consistency of the principal principle. Philosophy of Science, 83(5), 988\u20131001.","journal-title":"Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"2851_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-015-8553-8","volume-title":"Consequentialism reconsidered","author":"E Carlson","year":"1995","unstructured":"Carlson, E. (1995). Consequentialism reconsidered. Berlin: Springer."},{"key":"2851_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139167093","volume-title":"The dappled world: A study of the boundaries of science","author":"N Cartwright","year":"1999","unstructured":"Cartwright, N. (1999). The dappled world: A study of the boundaries of science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press."},{"key":"2851_CR4","first-page":"2081","volume":"109","author":"EK Cheng","year":"2009","unstructured":"Cheng, E. K. (2009). A practical solution to the reference class problem. Columbia Law Review, 109, 2081\u20132105.","journal-title":"Columbia Law Review"},{"issue":"1","key":"2851_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/axt041","volume":"66","author":"N Emery","year":"2015","unstructured":"Emery, N. (2015). Chance, possibility, and explanation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 66(1), 95\u2013120.","journal-title":"British Journal for the Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"2851_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-010-9098-8_14","volume-title":"Analysis and metaphysics. Essays in honor of R.M. Chisholm","author":"F Feldman","year":"1975","unstructured":"Feldman, F. (1975). World utilitarianism. In K. Lehrer (Ed.), Analysis and metaphysics. Essays in honor of R.M. Chisholm (pp. 255\u2013272). Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel Publishing Company."},{"key":"2851_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-94-009-4570-8","volume-title":"Doing the best we can. An essay in informal deontic logic","author":"F Feldman","year":"1986","unstructured":"Feldman, F. (1986). Doing the best we can. An essay in informal deontic logic. Dordrecht, Holland: D. Reidel Publishing Company."},{"issue":"1","key":"2851_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1007\/s11098-005-3021-y","volume":"129","author":"F Feldman","year":"2006","unstructured":"Feldman, F. (2006). Actual utility, the objection from impracticality, and the move to expected utility. Philosophical Studies, 129(1), 49\u201379.","journal-title":"Philosophical Studies"},{"issue":"30","key":"2851_CR9","first-page":"845","volume":"4","author":"L Fenton-Glynn","year":"2017","unstructured":"Fenton-Glynn, L. (2017). Is there high-level causation? Ergo, 4(30), 845\u2013898.","journal-title":"Ergo"},{"issue":"3","key":"2851_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"551","DOI":"10.1007\/s10670-013-9541-5","volume":"80","author":"R Frigg","year":"2015","unstructured":"Frigg, R., & Hoefer, C. (2015). The best humean system for statistical mechanics. Erkenntnis, 80(3), 551\u2013574.","journal-title":"Erkenntnis"},{"key":"2851_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"51","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/axp020","volume":"61","author":"L Glynn","year":"2010","unstructured":"Glynn, L. (2010). Deterministic chance. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 61, 51\u201380.","journal-title":"British Journal for the Philosophy of Science"},{"key":"2851_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"563","DOI":"10.1007\/s11229-006-9138-5","volume":"156","author":"A H\u00e1jek","year":"2007","unstructured":"H\u00e1jek, A. (2007). The reference class problem is your problem too. Synthese, 156, 563\u2013585.","journal-title":"Synthese"},{"issue":"1","key":"2851_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"190","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0068.2010.00806.x","volume":"45","author":"C Hare","year":"2011","unstructured":"Hare, C. (2011). Obligation and regret when there is no fact of the matter about what would have happened if you had not done what you did. No\u00fbs, 45(1), 190\u2013206.","journal-title":"No\u00fbs"},{"issue":"3","key":"2851_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"461","DOI":"10.1086\/293312","volume":"101","author":"F Jackson","year":"1991","unstructured":"Jackson, F. (1991). Decision-theoretic consequentialism and the nearest and dearest objection. Ethics, 101(3), 461\u2013482.","journal-title":"Ethics"},{"issue":"302","key":"2851_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"238","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/LXXVI.302.238","volume":"76","author":"L Kenner","year":"1967","unstructured":"Kenner, L. (1967). On blaming. Mind, 76(302), 238\u2013249.","journal-title":"Mind"},{"issue":"4","key":"2851_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"342","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1088-4963.2000.00342.x","volume":"29","author":"J Lenman","year":"2000","unstructured":"Lenman, J. (2000). Consequentialism and cluelessness. Philosophy and Public Affairs, 29(4), 342\u2013370.","journal-title":"Philosophy and Public Affairs"},{"key":"2851_CR17","volume-title":"Guide to financial markets","author":"M Levinson","year":"2006","unstructured":"Levinson, M. (2006). Guide to financial markets (4th ed.). London: The Economist in Association with Profile Books Ltd.","edition":"4"},{"key":"2851_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lewis, D. (1986). A subjectivist\u2019s guide to objective chance (with postscripts). In Philosophical papers, volume II (pp. 83\u2013132).","DOI":"10.1093\/0195036468.003.0004"},{"issue":"412","key":"2851_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1093\/mind\/103.412.473","volume":"103","author":"D Lewis","year":"1994","unstructured":"Lewis, D. (1994). Humean supervenience debugged. Mind, 103(412), 473\u2013490.","journal-title":"Mind"},{"issue":"9","key":"2851_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"475","DOI":"10.5840\/jphil2009106936","volume":"106","author":"C List","year":"2009","unstructured":"List, C., & Menzies, P. (2009). Nonreductive physicalism and the limits of the exclusion principle. Journal of Philosophy, 106(9), 475\u2013502.","journal-title":"Journal of Philosophy"},{"issue":"1","key":"2851_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"156","DOI":"10.1111\/nous.12019","volume":"48","author":"C List","year":"2014","unstructured":"List, C. (2014). Free will, determinism, and the possibility of doing otherwise. No\u00fbs, 48(1), 156\u2013178.","journal-title":"No\u00fbs"},{"issue":"1","key":"2851_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1215\/00318108-2812670","volume":"124","author":"C List","year":"2015","unstructured":"List, C., & Pivato, M. (2015). Emergent chance. Philosophical Review, 124(1), 119\u2013152.","journal-title":"Philosophical Review"},{"key":"2851_CR23","volume-title":"Logic, truth and the modalities from a phenomenological Perspective. Synthese Library Volume 278","author":"J Mohanty","year":"1999","unstructured":"Mohanty, J. (1999). Logic, truth and the modalities from a phenomenological Perspective. Synthese Library Volume 278. Berlin: Springer."},{"key":"2851_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/0199272018.001.0001","volume-title":"Ethics","author":"G Moore","year":"2005","unstructured":"Moore, G. (2005). Ethics. Oxford: Oxford University Press."},{"issue":"3","key":"2851_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"512","DOI":"10.1086\/293422","volume":"102","author":"G Oddie","year":"1992","unstructured":"Oddie, G., & Menzies, P. (1992). An objectivist\u2019s guide to subjective value. Ethics, 102(3), 512\u2013533.","journal-title":"Ethics"},{"key":"2851_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/019824908X.001.0001","volume-title":"Reasons and persons","author":"D Parfit","year":"1986","unstructured":"Parfit, D. (1986). Reasons and persons. Oxford: Oxford University Press."},{"key":"2851_CR27","volume-title":"The stanford encyclopedia of philosophy","author":"G Priest","year":"2018","unstructured":"Priest, G., Berto, F., & Weber, Z. (2018). Dialetheism. In E. N. Zalta (Ed.), The stanford encyclopedia of philosophy. Stanford: Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University."},{"key":"2851_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1093\/bjps\/axm002","volume":"58","author":"J Schaffer","year":"2007","unstructured":"Schaffer, J. (2007). Deterministic chance? British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 58, 113\u2013140.","journal-title":"British Journal for the Philosophy of Science"},{"issue":"4","key":"2851_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"478","DOI":"10.1111\/0029-4624.00057","volume":"31","author":"CA Stark","year":"1997","unstructured":"Stark, C. A. (1997). Decision procedures, standards of rightness and impartiality. No\u00fbs, 31(4), 478\u2013495.","journal-title":"No\u00fbs"},{"key":"2851_CR30","first-page":"340","volume-title":"Ethical theory: An anthology","author":"P Strawson","year":"2013","unstructured":"Strawson, P. (2013). Freedom and resentment. In R. Shafer-Landau (Ed.), Ethical theory: An anthology (2nd ed., pp. 340\u2013352). Hoboken: Wiley.","edition":"2"},{"issue":"1","key":"2851_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"120","DOI":"10.1086\/293781","volume":"106","author":"T T\u00e4nnsj\u00f6","year":"1995","unstructured":"T\u00e4nnsj\u00f6, T. (1995). Blameless wrongdoing. Ethics, 106(1), 120\u2013127.","journal-title":"Ethics"},{"issue":"1","key":"2851_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"46","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1755-2567.2007.tb01187.x","volume":"73","author":"J-P Vessel","year":"2007","unstructured":"Vessel, J.-P. (2007). The probabilistic nature of objective consequentialism. Theoria: A Swedish Journal of Philosophy, 73(1), 46\u201367.","journal-title":"Theoria: A Swedish Journal of Philosophy"},{"key":"2851_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"61","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-55486-0_4","volume-title":"Making it formally explicit","author":"C Wallmann","year":"2017","unstructured":"Wallmann, C., & Williamson, J. (2017). Four approaches to the reference class problem. In G. Hofer-Szab\u00f3 & L. Wro\u0144ski (Eds.), Making it formally explicit (pp. 61\u201381). Berlin: Springer."},{"issue":"3","key":"2851_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"645","DOI":"10.1086\/690071","volume":"127","author":"JRG Williams","year":"2017","unstructured":"Williams, J. R. G. (2017). Indeterminate oughts. Ethics, 127(3), 645\u2013673.","journal-title":"Ethics"}],"container-title":["Synthese"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11229-020-02851-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11229-020-02851-5\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11229-020-02851-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,9,24]],"date-time":"2021-09-24T15:59:56Z","timestamp":1632499196000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11229-020-02851-5"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,2]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]}},"alternative-id":["2851"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11229-020-02851-5","relation":{},"ISSN":["0039-7857","1573-0964"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0039-7857"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1573-0964"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,2]]},"assertion":[{"value":"21 February 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"25 August 2020","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"2 September 2020","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Compliance with ethical standards"}},{"value":"The author declares that he has no conflict of interest.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflicts of interest"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Code availability"}}]}}