{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,28]],"date-time":"2026-10-28T02:50:08Z","timestamp":1793155808964,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":11,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,1]],"date-time":"2020-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1583020800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,1]],"date-time":"2020-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1583020800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["31571370"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["31571370"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["91631106"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["91631106"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["91731302"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["91731302"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2018YFC1406902"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2018YFC1406902"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Quant. Biol."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID\u201019) is rapidly spreading in China and more than 30 countries over last two months. COVID\u201019 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily observed number of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of implemented quarantine and control measures.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We develop a Susceptible, Un\u2010quanrantined infected, Quarantined infected, Confirmed infected (SUQC) model to characterize the dynamics of COVID\u201019 and explicitly parameterize the intervention effects of control measures, which is more suitable for analysis than other existing epidemic models.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      The SUQC model is applied to the daily released data of the confirmed infections to analyze the outbreak of COVID\u201019\u00a0in Wuhan, Hubei (excluding Wuhan), China (excluding Hubei) and four first\u2010tier cities of China. We found that, before January 30, 2020, all these regions except Beijing had a reproductive number\n                      <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                      &gt; 1, and after January 30, all regions had a reproductive number\n                      <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                      &lt; 1, indicating that the quarantine and control measures are effective in preventing the spread of COVID\u201019. The confirmation rate of Wuhan estimated by our model is 0.0643, substantially lower than that of Hubei excluding Wuhan (0.1914), and that of China excluding Hubei (0.2189), but it jumps to 0.3229 after February 12 when clinical evidence was adopted in new diagnosis guidelines. The number of un\u2010quarantined infected cases in Wuhan on February 12, 2020 is estimated to be 3,509 and declines to 334 on February 21, 2020. After fitting the model with data as of February 21, 2020, we predict that the end time of COVID\u201019\u00a0in Wuhan and Hubei is around late March, around mid March for China excluding Hubei, and before early March 2020 for the four tier\u2010one cities. A total of 80,511\u00a0individuals are estimated to be infected in China, among which 49,510 are from Wuhan, 17,679 from Hubei (excluding Wuhan), and the rest 13,322 from other regions of China (excluding Hubei). Note that the estimates are from a deterministic ODE model and should be interpreted with some uncertainty.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We suggest that rigorous quarantine and control measures should be kept before early March in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and before late March in Hubei. The model can also be useful to predict the trend of epidemic and provide quantitative guide for other countries at high risk of outbreak, such as South Korea, Japan, Italy and Iran.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,3,11]],"date-time":"2020-03-11T03:02:40Z","timestamp":1583895760000},"page":"11-19","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":222,"title":["Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID\u201019 outbreak in China"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Shilei","family":"Zhao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> CAS Key Laboratory of Genomic and Precision Medicine Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--2--> China National Center for Bioinformation Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Future Technology University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hua","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> CAS Key Laboratory of Genomic and Precision Medicine Beijing Institute of Genomics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--2--> China National Center for Bioinformation Beijing 100101 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Future Technology University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049 China"},{"name":"<!--4--> CAS Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics Chinese Academy of Sciences Kunming 650223 China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.Wuhan Municipal Health Commission briefing on the pneumonia epidemic situation (31 Dec 2019 in Chinese).","DOI":"10.21147\/j.issn.1000-9604.2019.04.02"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(20)30185\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140\u20106736(20)30154\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_2","volume-title":"Prevention and control of novel coronavirus pneumonia (The Fifth Edition)","author":"National Health Commission of the People\u2019s Republic of China"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2605.200146"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2001316"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1741-7015-9-87"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.89c0d3783f36958d96ebbae97348d571"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_2","unstructured":"Imai N. Cori A. Dorigatti I. Imai N. Cori A. Dorigatti I. Baguelin M. .Donnelly C. Riley S. Ferguson N.(2020)Report 3: Transmissibility of 2019\u2010n\u2010CoV."},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu T. Hu J. Xiao J. He G. Kang M. Rong Z. Lin L. Zhong H. Huang Q. Deng A. et al. (2020)Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019\u2010nCoV). bioRxiv doi:10.1101\/2020.01.25.919787","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3526307"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Majumder M.andMandl K. D.(2020)Early Transmissibility Assessment of a Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan China.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3524675"}],"container-title":["Quantitative Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,3]],"date-time":"2025-01-03T04:57:45Z","timestamp":1735880265000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]},"references-count":11,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s40484-020-0199-0","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2020.02.27.20028639","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["2095-4689","2095-4697"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2095-4689","type":"print"},{"value":"2095-4697","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]},"assertion":[{"value":"29 February 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"4 March 2020","order":2,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"4 March 2020","order":3,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"11 March 2020","order":4,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The authors Shilei Zhao and Hua Chen declare that they have no conflict of interests.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Compliance with Ethics Guidelines"}},{"value":"All procedures performed in studies were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institution or practice at which the studies were conducted, and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Compliance with Ethics Guidelines"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}]}}