{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,31]],"date-time":"2025-10-31T13:38:25Z","timestamp":1761917905087,"version":"3.32.0"},"reference-count":16,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,1]],"date-time":"2020-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1598918400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,1]],"date-time":"2020-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1598918400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,1]],"date-time":"2020-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1598918400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100012166","name":"National Key Research and Development Program of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2018YFC0910400","2017YFC0907500","2018ZX10302205"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2018YFC0910400","2017YFC0907500","2018ZX10302205"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100012166","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["61702406","3161372","31701739","8191101420"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["61702406","3161372","31701739","8191101420"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Quant. Biol."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Various models have been applied to predict the trend of the epidemic since the outbreak of COVID\u201019.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>In this study, we designed a dynamic graph model, not for precisely predicting the number of infected cases, but for a glance of the dynamics under a public epidemic emergency situation and of different contributing factors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>We demonstrated the impact of asymptomatic transmission in this outbreak and showed the effectiveness of city lockdown to halt virus spread within a city. We further illustrated that sudden emergence of a large number of cases could overwhelm the city medical system, and external medical aids are critical to not only containing the further spread of the virus but also reducing fatality.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>Our model simulation showed that highly populated modern cities are particularly vulnerable and lessons learned in China could facilitate other countries to plan the proactive and decisive actions. We shall pay close attention to the asymptomatic transmission being suggested by rapidly accumulating evidence as dramatic changes in quarantine protocol are required to contain SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 from spreading globally.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s40484-020-0215-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,9,10]],"date-time":"2020-09-10T12:02:16Z","timestamp":1599739336000},"page":"238-244","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Transportation, germs, culture: a dynamic graph model of COVID\u201019 outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"8","author":[{"given":"Xiaofei","family":"Yang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--1--> School of Computer Science and Technology Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--2--> MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks &amp; Networks Security Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tun","family":"Xu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--2--> MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks &amp; Networks Security Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Automation Science and Engineering Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Peng","family":"Jia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--2--> MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks &amp; Networks Security Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Automation Science and Engineering Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Han","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--3--> School of Automation Science and Engineering Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--4--> Hugobiotech Co., Ltd. Beijing 102600 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Li","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--2--> MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks &amp; Networks Security Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Automation Science and Engineering Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--5--> The School of Life Science and Technology Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lei","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--6--> China\u2010Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases School of Public Health Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Health Science Center Xi\u2019an 710061 China"},{"name":"<!--7--> Melbourne Sexual Health Centre Alfred Health Melbourne VIC 3004 Australia"},{"name":"<!--8--> Central Clinical School Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences Monash University Melbourne VIC 3004 Australia"},{"name":"<!--9--> Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics College of Public Health Zhengzhou University Zhengzhou 450001 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kai","family":"Ye","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"<!--2--> MOE Key Lab for Intelligent Networks &amp; Networks Security Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--3--> School of Automation Science and Engineering Faculty of Electronic and Information Engineering Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--5--> The School of Life Science and Technology Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710049 China"},{"name":"<!--10--> Genome Institute the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi\u2019an Jiaotong University Xi\u2019an 710061 China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_2","unstructured":"Coronavirus disease.2019(COVID\u201019) Situation Report \u2013 29. 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