{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,5]],"date-time":"2026-01-05T15:08:29Z","timestamp":1767625709002,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,17]],"date-time":"2020-11-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1605571200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,17]],"date-time":"2020-11-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1605571200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"This work has been supported by the Universiteitsfonds Delft under the program TU Delft Covid-19 Response Fund"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Appl Netw Sci"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the Susceptible\u2013Infectious\u2013Recovered (SIR) epidemic model on contact networks in the Chinese case. In this paper, we investigate the prediction accuracy of the SIR model on networks also for Italy. Specifically, the Italian regions are a metapopulation represented by network nodes and the network links are the interactions between those regions. Then, we modify the network-based SIR model in order to take into account the different lockdown measures adopted by the Italian Government in the various phases of the spreading of the COVID-19. Our results indicate that the network-based model better predicts the daily cumulative infected individuals when time-varying lockdown protocols are incorporated in the classical SIR model.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s41109-020-00333-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,17]],"date-time":"2020-11-17T17:19:42Z","timestamp":1605633582000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Network-based prediction of COVID-19 epidemic spreading in Italy"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"5","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7297-7126","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Clara","family":"Pizzuti","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Annalisa","family":"Socievole","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bastian","family":"Prasse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Piet","family":"Van Mieghem","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,11,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"333_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.21.20040022v1","author":"A Arenas","year":"2020","unstructured":"Arenas A, Cota W, Gomez-Gardenes J, G\u00f3mez S, Granell C, Matamalas JT, Soriano-Panosand D, Steinegger B (2020) A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19. medRxiv. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.03.21.20040022v1","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"333_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.19.20039388","author":"D Caccavo","year":"2020","unstructured":"Caccavo D (2020) Chinese and Italian COVID-19 outbreaks can be correctly described by a modified SIRD model. medRxiv. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.03.19.20039388","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"issue":"6489","key":"333_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"395","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aba9757","volume":"368","author":"M Chinazzi","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chinazzi M, Davis JT, Ajelli M, Gioannini C, Litvinova M, Merler S, Piontti AP, Mu K, Rossi L, Sun K, Viboud C, Xiong X, Yu H, Halloran ME Jr, Vespignani A (2020) The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. 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