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Heterogeneity in the population density directly impacts the local relative risk: the chances that a specific area is reached by the contagion depend on its local density and connectedness to the rest of the region. We consider an SIR epidemic spreading in an urban territory subdivided into tiles (i.e., census blocks) of given population and demographic profile. We use the relative attack rate and the first infection time of a tile to quantify local severity and timing: how much and how fast the outbreak will impact any given area. Assuming that the contact rate of any two individuals depends on their household distance, we identify a suitably defined geographical centrality that measures the average connectedness of an area as an efficient indicator for local riskiness. We simulate the epidemic under different assumptions regarding the socio-demographic factors that influence interaction patterns, providing empirical evidence of the effectiveness and soundness of the proposed centrality measure.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s41109-022-00480-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,14]],"date-time":"2022-06-14T09:02:43Z","timestamp":1655197363000},"update-policy":"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Epidemic risk assessment from geographic population density"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"7","author":[{"given":"Alessandro","family":"Celestini","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Francesca","family":"Colaiori","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Stefano","family":"Guarino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Enrico","family":"Mastrostefano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lena Rebecca","family":"Zastrow","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,14]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"480_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(02)00125-6","volume":"180","author":"F Ball","year":"2002","unstructured":"Ball F, Neal P (2002) A general model for stochastic sir epidemics with two levels of mixing. 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