{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,5]],"date-time":"2026-02-05T00:48:14Z","timestamp":1770252494706,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767830400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]],"date-time":"2026-02-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1770163200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":27,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"EPSRC CASE","award":["EP\/XXXXXXX"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EP\/XXXXXXX"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010665","name":"H2020 Marie Sk\u0142odowska-Curie Actions","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["777826"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["777826"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010665","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001665","name":"Agence Nationale de la Recherche","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ANR-23-CE40-0009"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ANR-23-CE40-0009"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001665","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"TSE-HEC ACPR Chair"},{"name":"Chair Stress Test, RISK Management and Financial Steering of the Foundation Ecole Polytechnique"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Appl Netw Sci"],"DOI":"10.1007\/s41109-025-00748-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T12:44:31Z","timestamp":1767876271000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Enhancing financial crisis prediction: integrating change point detection for exogenous event identification"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Malvina","family":"Bozhidarova","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Frank","family":"Ball","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Yves","family":"van Gennip","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Reuben","family":"D O\u2019Dea","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Gilles","family":"Stupfler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"748_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20130456","volume":"105","author":"D Acemoglu","year":"2015","unstructured":"Acemoglu D, Ozdaglar A, Tahbaz-Salehi A (2015) Systemic risk and stability in financial networks. Am Econ Rev 105(2):564\u2013608","journal-title":"Am Econ Rev"},{"key":"748_CR2","unstructured":"Adams RP, MacKay DJ (2007) Bayesian online changepoint detection. arXiv preprint arXiv:0710.3742"},{"key":"748_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"127017","DOI":"10.1016\/j.physa.2022.127017","volume":"594","author":"DF Ahelegbey","year":"2022","unstructured":"Ahelegbey DF, Giudici P (2022) Netvix-a network volatility index of financial markets. Physica A 594:127017","journal-title":"Physica A"},{"key":"748_CR4","volume-title":"Market Risk Analysis, Pricing","author":"C Alexander","year":"2008","unstructured":"Alexander C (2008) Market Risk Analysis, Pricing. Hedging and Trading Financial Instruments. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, England"},{"issue":"2","key":"748_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1007\/s10115-016-0987-z","volume":"51","author":"S Aminikhanghahi","year":"2017","unstructured":"Aminikhanghahi S, Cook DJ (2017) A survey of methods for time series change point detection. Knowl Inf Syst 51(2):339\u2013367","journal-title":"Knowl Inf Syst"},{"issue":"4","key":"748_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"340","DOI":"10.1108\/17576381211279307","volume":"4","author":"SA Asongu","year":"2012","unstructured":"Asongu SA (2012) The 2011 Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis: evidence of contagion from international financial markets. J Financ Econ Policy 4(4):340\u2013353","journal-title":"J Financ Econ Policy"},{"key":"748_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"36","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jfs.2019.05.014","volume":"42","author":"S Avdjiev","year":"2019","unstructured":"Avdjiev S, Giudici P, Spelta A (2019) Measuring contagion risk in international banking. J Financ Stab 42:36\u201351","journal-title":"J Financ Stab"},{"issue":"6275","key":"748_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"818","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aad0299","volume":"351","author":"S Battiston","year":"2016","unstructured":"Battiston S, Farmer JD, Flache A, Garlaschelli D, Haldane AG, Heesterbeek H, Hommes C, Jaeger C, May R, Scheffer M (2016) Complexity theory and financial regulation. Science 351(6275):818\u2013819","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"748_CR9","volume-title":"Analysis of Infectious Disease Data","author":"NG Becker","year":"1989","unstructured":"Becker NG (1989) Analysis of Infectious Disease Data. Chapman and Hall\/CRC, Boca Raton, Florida"},{"issue":"34\u201335","key":"748_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3752","DOI":"10.1080\/00036846.2018.1436152","volume":"50","author":"A Belke","year":"2018","unstructured":"Belke A, Dubova I, Osowski T (2018) Policy uncertainty and international financial markets: the case of Brexit. Appl Econ 50(34\u201335):3752\u20133770","journal-title":"Appl Econ"},{"issue":"6","key":"748_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1140","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466604206041","volume":"20","author":"I Berkes","year":"2004","unstructured":"Berkes I, Gombay E, Horv\u00e1th L, Kokoszka P (2004) Sequential change-point detection in GARCH($$p, q$$) models. Economet Theor 20(6):1140\u20131167","journal-title":"Economet Theor"},{"issue":"2287","key":"748_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20230787","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.2023.0787","volume":"480","author":"M Bozhidarova","year":"2024","unstructured":"Bozhidarova M, Ball F, Van Gennip Y, O\u2019Dea RD, Stupfler G (2024) Describing financial crisis propagation through epidemic modelling on multiplex networks. Proc Royal Soc A 480(2287):20230787","journal-title":"Proc Royal Soc A"},{"key":"748_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/b97391","volume-title":"Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting","author":"PJ Brockwell","year":"2002","unstructured":"Brockwell PJ, Davis RA (2002) Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting. Springer, New York"},{"key":"748_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/0-387-28982-8","volume-title":"Inference in Hidden Markov Models","author":"O Capp\u00e9","year":"2005","unstructured":"Capp\u00e9 O, Moulines E, Ryd\u00e9n T (2005) Inference in Hidden Markov Models. Springer, New York"},{"issue":"25","key":"748_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"885","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2007.1292","volume":"5","author":"S Cauchemez","year":"2008","unstructured":"Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM (2008) Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: application to measles transmission in London. J R Soc Interface 5(25):885\u2013897","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"748_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ribaf.2014.03.003","volume":"32","author":"T Chevapatrakul","year":"2014","unstructured":"Chevapatrakul T, Tee K-H (2014) The effects of news events on market contagion: evidence from the 2007\u20132009 financial crisis. Res Int Bus Financ 32:83\u2013105","journal-title":"Res Int Bus Financ"},{"key":"748_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"339","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1009963131610","volume":"2","author":"S Coles","year":"1999","unstructured":"Coles S, Heffernan J, Tawn J (1999) Dependence measures for extreme value analyses. Extremes 2:339\u2013365","journal-title":"Extremes"},{"issue":"4","key":"748_CR18","first-page":"1673","volume":"26","author":"RA Davis","year":"2016","unstructured":"Davis RA, Liu H (2016) Theory and inference for a class of nonlinear models with application to time series of counts. Stat Sin 26(4):1673\u20131707","journal-title":"Stat Sin"},{"key":"748_CR19","volume-title":"The Concise Encyclopedia of Statistics","author":"Y Dodge","year":"2008","unstructured":"Dodge Y (2008) The Concise Encyclopedia of Statistics. Springer, New York"},{"issue":"5","key":"748_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"052801","DOI":"10.1103\/PhysRevE.89.052801","volume":"89","author":"P Fiedor","year":"2014","unstructured":"Fiedor P (2014) Networks in financial markets based on the mutual information rate. Phys Rev E 89(5):052801","journal-title":"Phys Rev E"},{"key":"748_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guidolin M (2011) Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance. In: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, UK","DOI":"10.1108\/S0731-9053(2011)000027B004"},{"key":"748_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/9781315222912","volume-title":"Handbook of Infectious Disease Data Analysis","author":"L Held","year":"2019","unstructured":"Held L, Hens N, O\u2019Neill PD, Wallinga J (2019) Handbook of Infectious Disease Data Analysis. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida"},{"issue":"3","key":"748_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.3390\/ijfs6030065","volume":"6","author":"M Hohlmeier","year":"2018","unstructured":"Hohlmeier M, Fahrholz C (2018) The impact of Brexit on financial markets-Taking stock. Int J Financial Stud 6(3):65","journal-title":"Int J Financial Stud"},{"key":"748_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Iwata T, Nakamura K, Tokusashi Y, Matsutani H (2019) Accelerating online change-point detection algorithm using 10 GbE FPGA NIC. In: Euro-Par 2018: Parallel Processing Workshops: Euro-Par 2018 International Workshops, Turin, Italy, August 27-28, 2018, Revised Selected Papers 24, pp. 506\u2013517. Springer","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-030-10549-5_40"},{"issue":"6","key":"748_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2029","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eneco.2012.08.005","volume":"34","author":"S Kawashima","year":"2012","unstructured":"Kawashima S, Takeda F (2012) The effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on stock prices of electric power utilities in Japan. Energy Economics 34(6):2029\u20132038","journal-title":"Energy Economics"},{"key":"748_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101800","DOI":"10.1016\/j.frl.2020.101800","volume":"38","author":"TH Le","year":"2021","unstructured":"Le TH, Do HX, Nguyen DK, Sensoy A (2021) Covid-19 pandemic and tail-dependency networks of financial assets. Financ Res Lett 38:101800","journal-title":"Financ Res Lett"},{"key":"748_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"101545","DOI":"10.1016\/j.irfa.2020.101545","volume":"71","author":"A Maghyereh","year":"2020","unstructured":"Maghyereh A, Abdoh H (2020) Tail dependence between Bitcoin and financial assets: evidence from a quantile cross-spectral approach. Int Rev Financ Anal 71:101545","journal-title":"Int Rev Financ Anal"},{"key":"748_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"340","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eap.2020.12.016","volume":"69","author":"AJ Makin","year":"2021","unstructured":"Makin AJ, Layton A (2021) The global fiscal response to COVID-19: risks and repercussions. Econ Anal Policy 69:340\u2013349","journal-title":"Econ Anal Policy"},{"issue":"2","key":"748_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"573","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.99.2.573","volume":"99","author":"FS Mishkin","year":"2009","unstructured":"Mishkin FS (2009) Is monetary policy effective during financial crises? American Econom Rev 99(2):573\u2013577","journal-title":"American Econom Rev"},{"issue":"1","key":"748_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.3390\/stats6010007","volume":"6","author":"M Monteiro","year":"2023","unstructured":"Monteiro M, Costa M (2023) Change point detection by state space modeling of long-term air temperature series in Europe. Stats 6(1):113\u2013130","journal-title":"Stats"},{"issue":"3","key":"748_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"0116201","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0116201","volume":"10","author":"N Musmeci","year":"2015","unstructured":"Musmeci N, Aste T, Di Matteo T (2015) Relation between financial market structure and the real economy: comparison between clustering methods. PLoS ONE 10(3):0116201","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"748_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1009393","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2022.1009393","volume":"10","author":"S Naseer","year":"2023","unstructured":"Naseer S, Khalid S, Parveen S, Abbass K, Song H, Achim MV (2023) COVID-19 outbreak: impact on global economy. Front Public Health 10:1009393","journal-title":"Front Public Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"748_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"27","DOI":"10.1016\/j.irfa.2006.12.002","volume":"17","author":"J Nikkinen","year":"2008","unstructured":"Nikkinen J, Omran MM, Sahlstr\u00f6m P, \u00c4ij\u00f6 J (2008) Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: evidence from 53 equity markets. Int Rev Financ Anal 17(1):27\u201346","journal-title":"Int Rev Financ Anal"},{"issue":"1","key":"748_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1665","DOI":"10.1038\/srep01665","volume":"3","author":"F Pozzi","year":"2013","unstructured":"Pozzi F, Di Matteo T, Aste T (2013) Spread of risk across financial markets: better to invest in the peripheries. Sci Rep 3(1):1665","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"748_CR35","unstructured":"Saaid F, Nur D, King R (2012) Change points detection of vector autoregressive model using SDVAR algorithm. Applied Statistics Education and Research Collaboration (ASEARC) - Conference Papers"},{"issue":"9","key":"748_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1779","DOI":"10.14778\/3538598.3538602","volume":"15","author":"S Schmidl","year":"2022","unstructured":"Schmidl S, Wenig P, Papenbrock T (2022) Anomaly detection in time series: a comprehensive evaluation. Proc VLDB Endowment 15(9):1779\u20131797","journal-title":"Proc VLDB Endowment"},{"issue":"45","key":"748_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4588","DOI":"10.1080\/00036846.2017.1287858","volume":"49","author":"AK Singh","year":"2017","unstructured":"Singh AK, Allen DE, Powell RJ (2017) Tail dependence analysis of stock markets using extreme value theory. Appl Econ 49(45):4588\u20134599","journal-title":"Appl Econ"},{"issue":"3","key":"748_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"31929","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0031929","volume":"7","author":"W-M Song","year":"2012","unstructured":"Song W-M, Di Matteo T, Aste T (2012) Hierarchical information clustering by means of topologically embedded graphs. PLoS ONE 7(3):31929","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"4","key":"748_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"482","DOI":"10.1109\/TKDE.2006.1599387","volume":"18","author":"J Takeuchi","year":"2006","unstructured":"Takeuchi J, Yamanishi K (2006) A unifying framework for detecting outliers and change points from time series. IEEE Trans Knowl Data Eng 18(4):482\u2013492","journal-title":"IEEE Trans Knowl Data Eng"},{"issue":"30","key":"748_CR40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10421","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0500298102","volume":"102","author":"M Tumminello","year":"2005","unstructured":"Tumminello M, Aste T, Di Matteo T, Mantegna RN (2005) A tool for filtering information in complex systems. Proc Natl Acad Sci 102(30):10421\u201310426","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"748_CR41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Wang L, Xue Z (2017) An automatic seismic event identification method by sequentially discounting autoregressive (SDAR). In: 2017 Workshop: Microseismic Technologies and Applications, Hefei, China, 4-6 June 2017, pp. 55\u201358. Society of Exploration Geophysicists","DOI":"10.1190\/Microseismic2017-014"}],"container-title":["Applied Network Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s41109-025-00748-1","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41109-025-00748-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s41109-025-00748-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,4]],"date-time":"2026-02-04T11:42:47Z","timestamp":1770205367000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s41109-025-00748-1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,12]]}},"alternative-id":["748"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s41109-025-00748-1","relation":{},"ISSN":["2364-8228"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2364-8228","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"16 April 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"12 October 2025","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"8 January 2026","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare no Conflict of interest.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"Not applicable","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethical aproval"}},{"value":"All authors gave final approval for publication and agreed to be held accountable for the work performed therein.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for publication"}}],"article-number":"15"}}