{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,14]],"date-time":"2026-01-14T20:31:09Z","timestamp":1768422669267,"version":"3.49.0"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,23]],"date-time":"2025-10-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761177600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,23]],"date-time":"2025-10-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1761177600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Oper. Res. Forum"],"DOI":"10.1007\/s43069-025-00558-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,23]],"date-time":"2025-10-23T12:48:55Z","timestamp":1761223735000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Modeling and Predicting Livestock Export in Somaliland: A Comparative Hybrid Model Approach"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"6","author":[{"given":"Abdisalam Amin","family":"Esse","sequence":"first","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Abdisalan Ahmed","family":"Osman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]},{"given":"Abdisalam Hassan","family":"Muse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,23]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1554","key":"558_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2853","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.2010.0134","volume":"365","author":"PK Thornton","year":"2010","unstructured":"Thornton PK (2010) Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 365(1554):2853\u20132867","journal-title":"Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci"},{"key":"558_CR2","unstructured":"Salvatore D (2019) International economics. John Wiley & Sons\u00a0"},{"key":"558_CR3","unstructured":"Muhumed MM, Yonis AM (2018) The future of somaliland livestock exports: examining the sustainability of livestock trade. Int J Manag Account Econ 5(8)"},{"issue":"8","key":"558_CR4","first-page":"138","volume":"6","author":"MM Muhumed","year":"2016","unstructured":"Muhumed MM (2016) Somaliland trade, exports and imports: an overview. Dev Ctry Stud 6(8):138\u2013143","journal-title":"Dev Ctry Stud"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1186\/s13570-019-0155-7","volume":"10","author":"AM Musa","year":"2020","unstructured":"Musa AM, Wasonga OV, Mtimet N (2020) Factors influencing livestock export in Somaliland\u2019s terminal markets. Pastoralism 10(1):1","journal-title":"Pastoralism"},{"key":"558_CR6","unstructured":"Godiah LM, Baker D, Elmi II, Costagli R, Gulaid I, Wanyoike F (2014) Enhancing the provision of livestock marketing information in Somaliland. ILRI research report 35. ILRI Nairobi"},{"issue":"7","key":"558_CR7","first-page":"44","volume":"6","author":"A Bereda","year":"2016","unstructured":"Bereda A, Yilma Z, Asefa Z, Kassa F (2016) Livestock and livestock products and by-product trade in Ethiopia: a review. Dev Ctry Stud 6(7):44\u201351","journal-title":"Dev Ctry Stud"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.56430\/japro.1197299","volume":"4","author":"D Waiswa","year":"2023","unstructured":"Waiswa D (2023) Modeling and forecasting Uganda\u2019s beef and cattle milk production using the Box-Jenkins methodology. Journal of Agricultural Production 4(1):16\u201329","journal-title":"Journal of Agricultural Production"},{"key":"558_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15666\/aeer\/2106_57855806","author":"MA Palabicak","year":"2023","unstructured":"Palabicak MA, Binici T (2023) Investigating the effects of dynamics and crises on livestock production in developing countries by using time series and future forecasting with ARIMA; a case study of sheep production in T\u00fcrkiye. Appl Ecol Environ Res. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15666\/aeer\/2106_57855806","journal-title":"Appl Ecol Environ Res"},{"issue":"3","key":"558_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1773","DOI":"10.30598\/barekengvol17iss3pp1773-1784","volume":"17","author":"LH Hasibuan","year":"2023","unstructured":"Hasibuan LH, Musthofa S, Putri DM, Jannah M (2023) Comparison of seasonal time series forecasting using Sarima and Holt Winter\u2019s exponential smoothing (case study: West Sumatra export data). BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan 17(3):1773\u20131784","journal-title":"BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan"},{"key":"558_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15312\/EurasianJVetSci.2021.352","author":"AMG Al Khatib","year":"2021","unstructured":"Al Khatib AMG, Yonar H, Abotaleb M, Mishra P, Yonar A, Karakaya K et al (2021) Modeling and forecasting of egg production in India using time series models. Eurasian J Vet Sci. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15312\/EurasianJVetSci.2021.352","journal-title":"Eurasian J Vet Sci"},{"key":"558_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fvets.2021.775114","volume":"8","author":"V Punyapornwithaya","year":"2021","unstructured":"Punyapornwithaya V, Jampachaisri K, Klaharn K, Sansamur C (2021) Forecasting of milk production in northern Thailand using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, error trend seasonality, and hybrid models. Front Vet Sci 8:775114","journal-title":"Front Vet Sci"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/23311932.2024.2378173","volume":"10","author":"K Klaharn","year":"2024","unstructured":"Klaharn K, Ngampak R, Chudam Y, Salvador R, Jainonthee C, Punyapornwithaya V (2024) Analyzing and forecasting poultry meat production and export volumes in Thailand: a time series approach. Cogent Food Agric 10(1):2378173","journal-title":"Cogent Food Agric"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR14","first-page":"1","volume":"26","author":"SK Safi","year":"2022","unstructured":"Safi SK, Sanusi OI, Tabash MI (2022) Forecasting the impact of COVID-19 epidemic on China exports using different time series models. Adv Decis Sci 26(1):1\u201325","journal-title":"Adv Decis Sci"},{"key":"558_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Perone G (2021) Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy. Eur J Heal Econ 1\u201324","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3716343"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2023\/5934552","volume":"2023","author":"BK Yadav","year":"2023","unstructured":"Yadav BK, Srivastava SK, Arasu PT, Singh P (2023) Time series modeling of tuberculosis cases in India from 2017 to 2022 based on the SARIMA-NNAR hybrid model. Can J Infect Dis Med Microbiol 2023(1):5934552","journal-title":"Can J Infect Dis Med Microbiol"},{"issue":"9","key":"558_CR17","first-page":"319","volume":"8","author":"M Khairalla","year":"2017","unstructured":"Khairalla M, AL-Jallad NT (2017) Hybrid forecasting scheme for financial time-series data using neural network and statistical methods. Int J Adv Comput Sci Appl 8(9):319\u201327","journal-title":"Int J Adv Comput Sci Appl"},{"issue":"6","key":"558_CR18","first-page":"87","volume":"5","author":"D Aydin","year":"2015","unstructured":"Aydin D, G\u00fcneri \u00d6\u0130 (2015) Time series prediction using hybridization of AR, SETAR and ARM models. Int J Appl 5(6):87\u201396","journal-title":"Int J Appl"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR19","first-page":"65","volume":"54","author":"S Anusha","year":"2020","unstructured":"Anusha S, Kumar BS, Kumar DS (2020) Time series analysis of Indian spices export and prices. Indian J Agric Res 54(1):65\u201370","journal-title":"Indian J Agric Res"},{"key":"558_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Kumar S, Basavaraj MS, Pachava V (2025) Machine learning-driven export forecasting: a comparative analysis for MSME growth. J Econ Innov Manag Entrep 3(1)","DOI":"10.59652\/jeime.v3i1.401"},{"key":"558_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Saini KP, Sharma A (2024) A comparison between long short-term memory and prophet for time series analysis and forecasting technique. kuey 30(4):8760\u20135","DOI":"10.53555\/kuey.v30i4.2816"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR22","first-page":"59","volume":"7","author":"A Ecevit","year":"2024","unstructured":"Ecevit A, \u00d6zt\u00fcrk \u0130, Da\u011f M, \u00d6zcan T (2024) Short-term sales forecasting using LSTM and prophet based models in e-commerce. Acta Infologica 7(1):59\u201370","journal-title":"Acta Infologica"},{"issue":"3","key":"558_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"644","DOI":"10.3390\/forecast3030040","volume":"3","author":"L Menculini","year":"2021","unstructured":"Menculini L, Marini A, Proietti M, Garinei A, Bozza A, Moretti C et al (2021) Comparing prophet and deep learning to ARIMA in forecasting wholesale food prices. Forecast 3(3):644\u2013662","journal-title":"Forecast"},{"key":"558_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Hossain S, Kaur G (2024) Stock market prediction: XGBoost and LSTM comparative analysis. In: 2024 3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence For Internet of Things (AIIoT). IEEE p. 1\u20136.","DOI":"10.1109\/AIIoT58432.2024.10574794"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s43926-024-00075-4","volume":"4","author":"BK Mishra","year":"2024","unstructured":"Mishra BK, Preniqi V, Thakker D, Feigl E (2024) Machine learning and deep learning prediction models for time-series: a comparative analytical study for the use case of the UK short-term electricity price prediction. Discov Internet Things 4(1):1\u201322","journal-title":"Discov Internet Things"},{"key":"558_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.22214\/ijraset.2022.48411","author":"P Kodicherla","year":"2022","unstructured":"Kodicherla P, Velagandula N (2022) Univariate time series analysis of cryptocurrency data using prophet, LSTM and XGBoost. International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.22214\/ijraset.2022.48411","journal-title":"International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology"},{"issue":"2","key":"558_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/en18020278","volume":"18","author":"S Albahli","year":"2025","unstructured":"Albahli S (2025) LSTM vs. prophet: achieving superior accuracy in dynamic electricity demand forecasting. Energies 18(2):278","journal-title":"Energies"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11381","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-62182-0","volume":"14","author":"A Frifra","year":"2024","unstructured":"Frifra A, Maanan M, Maanan M, Rhinane H (2024) Harnessing LSTM and XGBoost algorithms for storm prediction. Sci Rep 14(1):11381","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"issue":"9","key":"558_CR29","first-page":"195","volume":"4","author":"F Yusof","year":"2012","unstructured":"Yusof F, Kane IL (2012) Modelling monthly rainfall time series using ETS state space and SARIMA models. Int J Curr Res 4(9):195\u2013200","journal-title":"Int J Curr Res"},{"key":"558_CR30","unstructured":"Umar A, Tanner R (2007) Risk taking for a living. Trade and marketing in the Somali region of Ethiopia\u00a0"},{"key":"558_CR31","unstructured":"Box GEP, Jenkins GM, Bacon DW (1967) Models for forecasting seasonal and non-seasonal time series. University of Wisconsin--Madison, Department of Statistics"},{"key":"558_CR32","unstructured":"Hipel KW, McLeod AI (1994) Time series modelling of water resources and environmental systems. Vol. 45. Elsevier\u00a0"},{"key":"558_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Brockwell PJ, Davis RA (1991) Time series: theory and methods. Springer science & business media\u00a0","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4419-0320-4"},{"issue":"4","key":"558_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"715","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-2070(03)00003-7","volume":"19","author":"JW Taylor","year":"2003","unstructured":"Taylor JW (2003) Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend. Int J Forecast 19(4):715\u2013725","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2003.09.015","volume":"20","author":"CC Holt","year":"2004","unstructured":"Holt CC (2004) Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted moving averages. Int J Forecast 20(1):5\u201310","journal-title":"Int J Forecast"},{"issue":"3","key":"558_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"324","DOI":"10.1287\/mnsc.6.3.324","volume":"6","author":"PR Winters","year":"1960","unstructured":"Winters PR (1960) Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages. Manage Sci 6(3):324\u2013342","journal-title":"Manage Sci"},{"key":"558_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chatfield C, Xing H (2019) The analysis of time series: an introduction with R. Chapman and hall\/CRC\u00a0","DOI":"10.1201\/9781351259446"},{"issue":"5","key":"558_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"928","DOI":"10.3390\/en12050928","volume":"12","author":"OA Karabiber","year":"2019","unstructured":"Karabiber OA, Xydis G (2019) Electricity price forecasting in the Danish day-ahead market using the TBATS, ANN and ARIMA methods. Energies 12(5):928","journal-title":"Energies"},{"key":"558_CR39","unstructured":"Shaub D, Ellis P, Shaub MD (2020) Package \u2018forecastHybrid.\u2019 URL https\/\/cran r-project org\/web\/packages\/forecastHybrid\/forecastHybrid pdf (\u0434a\u0442a \u0437\u0432ep\u043de\u043d\u043d\u044f 2501 2019)\u00a0"},{"key":"558_CR40","unstructured":"Hyndman RJ, Athanasopoulos G (2018) Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts\u00a0"},{"key":"558_CR41","unstructured":"Kp B (1998) Model selection and multimodel inference. A Pract information-theoretic approach"},{"key":"558_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shaub D, Ellis P (2017) Convenient functions for ensemble time series forecasts. R Packag version. 1(9)","DOI":"10.32614\/CRAN.package.forecastHybrid"},{"key":"558_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4038\/wjas.v13i0.29","author":"GLI Anuththara","year":"2021","unstructured":"Anuththara GLI, Weerathilake W (2021) Trend analysis and short-term forecasting of goat and sheep populations and their meat production in Sri Lanka using single and double exponential smoothing models. Wayamba J Anim Sci. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4038\/wjas.v13i0.29","journal-title":"Wayamba J Anim Sci"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.5958\/0973-9718.2021.00021.0","volume":"27","author":"AS Nair","year":"2021","unstructured":"Nair AS, Thirunavukkarasu M, Pandian A, Senthilkumar G, Balan C (2021) Small ruminant population in India-a forecast for the future. Indian Journal of Small Ruminants (The) 27(1):24\u201330","journal-title":"Indian Journal of Small Ruminants (The)"},{"key":"558_CR45","unstructured":"Soare E (2016) Study on sheep and goat meat market in Romania"},{"issue":"2","key":"558_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.30910\/turkjans.1523432","volume":"12","author":"F\u015e \u00d6zbek","year":"2025","unstructured":"\u00d6zbek F\u015e, Ergi\u015fi S, Demir \u0130 (2025) Forecasting cattle population: a case study of T\u00fcrkiye. T\u00fcrk Tar\u0131m ve Do\u011fa Bilimleri Dergisi 12(2):259\u2013268","journal-title":"T\u00fcrk Tar\u0131m ve Do\u011fa Bilimleri Dergisi"},{"issue":"7","key":"558_CR47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1367","DOI":"10.3390\/v14071367","volume":"14","author":"V Punyapornwithaya","year":"2022","unstructured":"Punyapornwithaya V, Mishra P, Sansamur C, Pfeiffer D, Arjkumpa O, Prakotcheo R et al (2022) Time-series analysis for the number of foot and mouth disease outbreak episodes in cattle farms in Thailand using data from 2010\u20132020. Viruses 14(7):1367","journal-title":"Viruses"},{"key":"558_CR48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2023.105964","volume":"217","author":"V Punyapornwithaya","year":"2023","unstructured":"Punyapornwithaya V, Arjkumpa O, Buamithup N, Kuatako N, Klaharn K, Sansamur C et al (2023) Forecasting of daily new lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand at different stages of the epidemic using fuzzy logic time series, NNAR, and ARIMA methods. Prev Vet Med 217:105964","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"issue":"12","key":"558_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2763","DOI":"10.14202\/vetworld.2024.2763-2773","volume":"17","author":"M Kandeel","year":"2024","unstructured":"Kandeel M (2024) Trends in camel research in South Asia: a bibliometric approach. Vet World 17(12):2763","journal-title":"Vet World"},{"issue":"1","key":"558_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1186\/s13570-022-00248-2","volume":"12","author":"D Kena","year":"2022","unstructured":"Kena D (2022) Review on camel production and marketing status in Ethiopia. Pastoralism 12(1):38","journal-title":"Pastoralism"},{"key":"558_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Massimo C, Sergio I, Kinyanjui W, Muchina MSJ, George M (2012) Sustainable livelihood: potential role and quality assurance of camel export trade in Somalia. 1: 227. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.4172\/scientificreports. 227. Live Livest Export have been through two major ports, namely.\u00a0","DOI":"10.4172\/scientificreports"}],"container-title":["Operations Research Forum"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s43069-025-00558-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s43069-025-00558-2","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s43069-025-00558-2.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,14]],"date-time":"2026-01-14T11:28:54Z","timestamp":1768390134000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s43069-025-00558-2"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,23]]},"references-count":51,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["558"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s43069-025-00558-2","relation":{},"ISSN":["2662-2556"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2662-2556","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,23]]},"assertion":[{"value":"30 April 2025","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"21 September 2025","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"23 October 2025","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"This study does not involve human or animal subjects. Instead, it relies exclusively on secondary data related to poultry production and export volumes, which were obtained from the Ministry of Livestock and Rural Development, Somaliland.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethical Approval"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent for Publication"}},{"value":"The authors declare no competing interests.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing Interests"}}],"article-number":"161"}}