{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T03:59:37Z","timestamp":1789617577877,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,5]],"date-time":"2019-12-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1575504000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,5]],"date-time":"2019-12-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1575504000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000361","name":"Diabetes UK","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["10\/0004010"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["10\/0004010"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000361","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008664","name":"Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1-SRA-2016-334-Q-R"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1-SRA-2016-334-Q-R"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008664","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000589","name":"Chief Scientist Office","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Ref. ETM\/47"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Ref. ETM\/47"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000589","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Diabetologia"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Aims\/hypothesis<\/jats:title><jats:p>The aim of this study was to provide data from a contemporary population-representative cohort on rates and predictors of renal decline in type 1 diabetes.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We used data from a cohort of 5777 people with type 1 diabetes aged 16 and older, diagnosed before the age of 50, and representative of the adult population with type 1 diabetes in Scotland (Scottish Diabetes Research Network Type 1 Bioresource; SDRNT1BIO). We measured serum creatinine and urinary albumin\/creatinine ratio (ACR) at recruitment and linked the data to the national electronic healthcare records.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Median age was 44.1\u00a0years and diabetes duration 20.9\u00a0years. The prevalence of CKD stages G1, G2, G3 and G4 and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) was 64.0%, 29.3%, 5.4%, 0.6%, 0.7%, respectively. Micro\/macroalbuminuria prevalence was 8.6% and 3.0%, respectively. The incidence rate of ESRD was 2.5 (95% CI 1.9, 3.2) per 1000 person-years. The majority (59%) of those with chronic kidney disease stages G3\u2013G5 did not have albuminuria on the day of recruitment or previously. Over 11.6\u00a0years of observation, the median annual decline in eGFR was modest at \u22121.3\u00a0ml\u00a0min<jats:sup>\u22121<\/jats:sup>[1.73\u00a0m]<jats:sup>\u22122<\/jats:sup>\u00a0year<jats:sup>\u22121<\/jats:sup>(interquartile range [IQR]: \u22122.2, \u22120.4). However, 14% experienced a more significant loss of at least 3\u00a0ml\u00a0min<jats:sup>\u22121<\/jats:sup>[1.73\u00a0m]<jats:sup>\u22122<\/jats:sup>. These decliners had more cardiovascular disease (OR 1.9,<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20095\u2009\u00d7\u200910<jats:sup>\u22125<\/jats:sup>) and retinopathy (OR 1.3<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.02). Adding HbA<jats:sub>1c<\/jats:sub>, prior cardiovascular disease, recent mean eGFR and prior trajectory of eGFR to a model with age, sex, diabetes duration, current eGFR and ACR maximised the prediction of final eGFR (<jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic><jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>increment from 0.698 to 0.745,<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u200910<jats:sup>\u221216<\/jats:sup>). Attempting to model nonlinearity in eGFR decline or to detect latent classes of decliners did not improve prediction.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>These data show much lower levels of kidney disease than historical estimates. However, early identification of those destined to experience significant decline in eGFR remains challenging.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00125-019-05052-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,5]],"date-time":"2019-12-05T18:02:46Z","timestamp":1575568966000},"page":"636-647","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":29,"title":["Predicting renal disease progression in a large contemporary cohort with type 1 diabetes mellitus"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"63","author":[{"name":"on behalf of the Scottish Diabetes Research Network (SDRN) Type 1 Bioresource Investigators and the Scottish Renal Registry","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marco","family":"Colombo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stuart J.","family":"McGurnaghan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Samira","family":"Bell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Finlay","family":"MacKenzie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alan W.","family":"Patrick","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John R.","family":"Petrie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"John A.","family":"McKnight","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sandra","family":"MacRury","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jamie","family":"Traynor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Wendy","family":"Metcalfe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul M.","family":"McKeigue","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8345-3288","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Helen M.","family":"Colhoun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,12,5]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"5052_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2014.16425","volume":"313","author":"SJ Livingstone","year":"2015","unstructured":"Livingstone SJ, Levin D, Looker HC et al (2015) Estimated life expectancy in a Scottish cohort with type 1 diabetes, 2008-2010. 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All other authors declare that there is no duality of interest associated with their contribution to this manuscript. The study sponsors had no role in the study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publication.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Duality of interest"}}]}}