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Newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes cases in adults (\u226520 years) coded as E11 (Diabetes mellitus, Type 2) or E14 (Unspecified diabetes mellitus) under ICD-10, German modification (ICD-10-GM) for the study period 2012 to 2021 were included. Annual and quarterly age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR) stratified by sex, age and region were calculated using the European standard population. Sex-specific crude incidence rates (CIR) were calculated using 10-year age groups. Regression analyses adjusted for time trends, seasonal effects, and pandemic effects were used to analyse the incidence trend and to assess the effect of the pandemic.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>Overall, 745,861 new cases of type 2 diabetes were diagnosed between 2012 and 2021: 50.4% (376,193 cases) in women. The male\/female ratio remained stable over the observation period, while the median age at diagnosis decreased from 62 to 59 years in men and from 66 years to 61 years in women. ASIR were consistently higher for men compared with women, with the yearly difference remaining stable over time (2012: 18%; 2021: 20%). An overall decreasing trend in ASIR was observed during the study period, with a strong decrease from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021 for both sexes. For men, ASIR decreased from 1514 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 995 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.6% average annual reduction), and for women from 1238 per 100,000 person-years in 2012 to 796 per 100,000 person-years in 2021 (4.8% average annual reduction). This downward trend was also observed for age groups above 50 years. Regression analyses showed no significant change in incidence rates during the pandemic period (2020 and 2021) compared with the pre-pandemic period.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Conclusions\/interpretation<\/jats:title>\n            <jats:p>For the first time, a 10-year incidence trend of type 2 diabetes is reported for Germany, showing a strong decline from 2012 to 2017, followed by a less pronounced decline from 2018 to 2021. The incidence trend of type 2 diabetes appears not to have been affected by the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite an overall increasing prevalence, the incidence is decreasing, potentially resulting from robust screening by family physicians, reducing the median age at diagnosis by 3 to 5 years. However, further investigation is needed to fully identify the reasons for the declining incidence trend. Continued incidence monitoring is necessary to identify the long-term trend and the potential effect of the pandemic on diagnoses of type 2 diabetes.<\/jats:p>\n          <\/jats:sec>\n          <jats:sec>\n            <jats:title>Graphical Abstract<\/jats:title>\n          <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00125-024-06113-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,26]],"date-time":"2024-02-26T19:02:22Z","timestamp":1708974142000},"page":"1040-1050","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Incidence trend of type 2 diabetes from 2012 to 2021 in Germany: an analysis of health claims data of 11 million statutorily insured people"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"67","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0004-5628-6631","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carolin T.","family":"Lehner","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6584-3197","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marian","family":"Eberl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0668-0049","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ewan","family":"Donnachie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2086-7491","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luana F.","family":"Tanaka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0392-1580","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gunther","family":"Schauberger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5222-2348","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Florian","family":"Schederecker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6565-5353","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sebastian","family":"Himmler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6057-8363","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Leonie","family":"Sundmacher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3523-1362","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stefanie J.","family":"Klug","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"6113_CR1","volume-title":"IDF Diabetes Atlas","author":"International Diabetes Federation","year":"2021","unstructured":"International Diabetes Federation (2021) IDF Diabetes Atlas, 10th edn. 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We acknowledge the Bavarian Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians for providing anonymised health claims data. Some of the data were presented as an abstract at the 59th Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) and the 18th Annual Meeting of the German Society of Epidemiology (DGEpi) in 2023. The study protocol was presented at the TUM Graduate Center of Medicine and Health (TUM FGZ) in 2022.The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the KVB.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Acknowledgements"}},{"value":"The data on which these analyses were conducted are available from the KVB, but restrictions apply to the availability of these data. Data are, however, available from the authors upon reasonable request and with permission of the KVB.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Data availability"}},{"value":"The ChroVID study is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under the project number 458556631. The study funder was not involved in the design of the study; the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; writing the report; and did not impose any restrictions regarding the publication of the report.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Funding"}},{"value":"The authors declare that there are no relationships or activities that might bias, or be perceived to bias, their work.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Authors\u2019 relationships and activities"}},{"value":"SJK, LS and ME conceived and designed the study; SJK acquired the funding; ED prepared the data; and CTL performed the data analysis in consultation with ED, GS, FS and SJK. CTL, ED, ME, LFT FS, SH and SJK interpreted the data. CTL drafted the manuscript. ME, ED, LFT, GS, FS, SH, LS and SJK critically reviewed the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final version of the manuscript to be published. SJK is the guarantor of this work.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Contribution statement"}}]}}