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The XGBoost algorithm was used to develop two models: a comprehensive model and a simplified model for predicting hypoglycaemia during exercise.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The comprehensive model (406 variables) achieved a mean ROC AUC of 0.89. The simplified model, using only starting glucose, exercise duration and glucose trend arrows, achieved a comparable ROC AUC of 0.87. The simplified model performed consistently across exercise types and insulin delivery methods. In collaboration with individuals with type 1 diabetes, this model was translated into GlucoseGo, a user-friendly traffic-light heatmap displaying hypoglycaemia risk based on the three variables.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions\/interpretation<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The GlucoseGo heatmap provides a practical, accessible tool for predicting hypoglycaemia risk immediately before exercise. It may empower individuals with type 1 diabetes to exercise more safely, reduce hypoglycaemic episodes, and increase engagement in physical activity.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Graphical Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00125-026-06692-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T18:59:51Z","timestamp":1772045991000},"page":"1468-1481","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["GlucoseGo: a simple tool to predict hypoglycaemia during exercise in type 1 diabetes"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"69","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6785-6477","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Catherine L.","family":"Russon","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8746-9957","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michael J.","family":"Allen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3798-9492","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emma","family":"Cockcroft","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0730-7879","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John S.","family":"Pemberton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7159-2283","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anne-Marie","family":"Frohock","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5038-6560","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Neil","family":"Vaughan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6880-7597","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Richard M.","family":"Pulsford","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4939-1738","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robert C.","family":"Andrews","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]]},"reference":[{"issue":"7","key":"6692_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"615","DOI":"10.1007\/s00592-017-0978-x","volume":"54","author":"R Codella","year":"2017","unstructured":"Codella R, Terruzzi I, Luzi L (2017) Why should people with type 1 diabetes exercise regularly? 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Without your contribution, this research would not have been possible. We also wish to thank A. Jones for critical evaluation of our findings. This study was conducted with the support of the NIHR Exeter Biomedical Research Centre (BRC).This publication is based on research using data from the Type 1 Diabetes EXercise Initiative (T1DEXI) and Type 1 Diabetes EXercise Initiative Pediatric (T1DEXIP) studies that have been made available through Vivli Inc. Vivli has not contributed to or approved, and is not in any way responsible for, the contents of this publication.During the course of preparing this work, the authors used ChatGPT and Copilot for the purpose of summarising research papers, text editing and providing code snippets. Following the use of this tool\/service, the authors formally reviewed the content for its accuracy and edited it as necessary. The authors take full responsibility for all the content of this publication.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Acknowledgements"}},{"value":"The T1DEXI and T1DEXIP datasets are available through application to Vivli Inc. (\n                      \n                      ). The EXTOD-101 and EXTOD-Education datasets are available from the study investigators upon reasonable request.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Data availability"}},{"value":"All code for this project is openly available in a GitHub repository (\n                      \n                      ).","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Code availability"}},{"value":"This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Funding"}},{"value":"JSP has served on advisory boards for Abbott and Roche and has received speaker fees from Abbott, Dexcom and Insulet within the last three years. He is also a faculty member of the EXercise in Type One Diabetes group. RCA has received research funding from Novo Nordisk Healthcare Organisation within the last three years and has received honoraria from Novo Nordisk, AstraZeneca and Eli Lilly for educational talks on diet and exercise to healthcare professionals. He is a co-founder of the EXercise in Type One Diabetes group. The remaining authors declare that there are no relationships or activities that might bias, or be perceived to bias, their work.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Authors\u2019 relationships and activities"}},{"value":"All authors were involved in the conception, design and conduct of the study, as well as the analysis and interpretation of the results. CLR wrote the code and the first draft of the manuscript. MJA served as the technical advisor for code and data analysis, RCA acted as the clinical advisor, and RMP provided expertise as the sports science advisor. All authors edited, reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript. CLR is the guarantor of this work, and, as such, had full access to all the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.","order":6,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Contribution statement"}}]}}