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Among the candidate predictors, we selected the six most significant predictors a priori. The main outcome was SWL failure after three sessions. Model calibration was evaluated by the calibration slope and the Hosmer\u2013Lemeshow test. Discrimination was evaluated by the receiver-operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC). A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed; based on the estimated <jats:italic>\u03b2<\/jats:italic> coefficients, predictive scores were generated.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>Of 2695 patients, 2271 were included. Patients were divided into the development cohort (1666 patients) and validation cohort (605 patients) according to geographical factors. We developed a clinical prediction model with scores ranging from 0 to 49 points. We named the prediction model the S<jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub>HoCKwave score based on the initials of the predictors (sex, skin-to-stone distance, size, Hounsfield units, colic, and kidney or ureter). As a result of internal validation, the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.72. In the validation cohort, the Hosmer\u2013Lemeshow test did not show statistical significance (<jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.33), and the AUC was 0.71 (95% confidence interval 0.65\u20130.76).<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n<jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n<jats:p>The S<jats:sub>3<\/jats:sub>HoCKwave score is easy to understand, has a relatively high predictive value, and allows clinicians to make appropriate treatment selections.<\/jats:p>\n<\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00345-020-03125-y","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,22]],"date-time":"2020-02-22T12:02:43Z","timestamp":1582372963000},"page":"3267-3273","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Development and validation of a prediction model for failed shockwave lithotripsy of upper urinary tract calculi using computed tomography information: the S3HoCKwave score"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"38","author":[{"name":"the Okayama-Ehime S.W.L. 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Yoshioka received a clinical research grant from the Japanese Society of Urolithiasis Research to conduct this study.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of all institutes and hospitals. The approval number of the Kyoto University IRB is R1046. All data were anonymised before performing the statistical analysis. Our study complies with the statement for transparent reporting of multivariate predictive models on individual prognosis and diagnosis (TRIPOD statement) [].","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethical considerations"}}]}}