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Previous modelling has outlined how policy interventions could shift dietary patterns to align with meat reduction targets, but the resulting health impacts remain unexplored.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We quantified the projected health impacts of the UK Climate Change Committee's (CCC) dietary targets\u2014a 35% or 50% reduction in meat consumption\u2014focusing on red and processed meat and substitution with vegetables and legumes, on incidence and mortality of key diet-related chronic diseases over 30\u00a0years. Dietary inputs were derived from an agent-based opinion dynamics model parameterised using the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey data, and health impacts were estimated using the IOMLIFET life-table model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Achieving the red and processed meat reduction components of the CCC's targets was associated with a projected increase in life expectancy of 7.2 (1.1\u201312.9) and 9.4 (1.3\u201315.4) months and years of life gained of 8.4 (1.3\u201314.9) and 10.9 (1.5\u201317.9) million, in the 35% and 50% scenarios, respectively. An estimated 3.4 (0.5\u20136.6) and 4.5 (0.6\u20138.1) million chronic disease cases could be averted. Up to 95% of health gains were attributable to cardiovascular outcomes, with three quarters linked to increased vegetable and legume consumption.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>These exploratory estimates suggest policy-driven reductions in red and processed meat aligned with climate goals could deliver substantial public health benefits. While conditional on modelled behavioural trajectories, findings offer relevant insights for European strategies to reduce cardiovascular disease burden and promote sustainable dietary transitions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00394-026-04093-6","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T10:37:08Z","timestamp":1789641428000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Health co-benefits of sustainable dietary transitions to reduced red and processed meat intake in the United Kingdom: a modelling study"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"65","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8505-116X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Patricia","family":"Eustachio Colombo","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olivia","family":"Auclair","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Milner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Angela","family":"Fontan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Silvia","family":"Pastorino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sara Monteiro","family":"Pires","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andr\u00e9","family":"Hesselink","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marie","family":"L\u00f6f","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rosemary","family":"Green","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]]},"reference":[{"issue":"10170","key":"4093_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"447","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)31788-4","volume":"393","author":"W Willett","year":"2019","unstructured":"Willett W, Rockstr\u00f6m J, Loken B, Springmann M, Lang T, Vermeulen S et al (2019) Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT\u2013Lancet commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems. 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PEC had financial support from the Swedish Research Council (VR, grant nr. 2022\u201300344) for the submitted work. The Swedish Research Council had no role in the study design; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; or in the decision to submit the paper for publication.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","label":"Conflict of interest","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"This study utilised publicly available national dietary data and population statistics, including mortality and morbidity statistics. Since the data used in this research was obtained from secondary sources and was anonymised, there was no direct interaction with human subjects. Thus, specific ethical approvals for human subject research were not required.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","label":"Ethical approval","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}}],"article-number":"254"}}