{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T03:29:20Z","timestamp":1788406160294,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,24]],"date-time":"2025-04-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1745452800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,24]],"date-time":"2025-04-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1745452800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Arch Orthop Trauma Surg"],"DOI":"10.1007\/s00402-025-05877-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,24]],"date-time":"2025-04-24T11:06:20Z","timestamp":1745492780000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Can 3-month models or observed 3- or 6-month patient-reported outcome measures accurately predict 12-month disability and pain after lumbar decompressive surgery?"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"145","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2069-6845","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jonathan H.","family":"Geere","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul R.","family":"Hunter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew J.","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amarjit S.","family":"Rai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"5877_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1097\/brs.0000000000002309","volume":"43","author":"GH St-Pierre","year":"2018","unstructured":"St-Pierre GH, Yang MH, Bourget-Murray J, Thomas KC, Hurlbert RJ, Matthes N (2018) Performance indicators in spine surgery. Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 43:275\u2013280. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/brs.0000000000002309","journal-title":"Spine (Phila Pa 1976)"},{"key":"5877_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S117","DOI":"10.1097\/BRS.0000000000000552","volume":"39","author":"MJ McGirt","year":"2014","unstructured":"McGirt MJ, Parker SL, Asher AL, Norvell D, Sherry N, Devin CJ (2014) Role of prospective registries in defining the value and effectiveness of spine care. Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 39:S117\u2013S128. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/BRS.0000000000000552","journal-title":"Spine (Phila Pa 1976)"},{"key":"5877_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/BRS.0000000000002087","author":"EJ Kim","year":"2017","unstructured":"Kim EJ, Chotai S, Archer KR, Bydon M, Asher AL, Devin CJ (2017) Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 42:1331\u20131338. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/BRS.0000000000002087. Need for Two-Year Patient-Reported Outcomes Score for Lumbar Spine Surgery Is Procedure-Specific: Analysis From a Prospective Longitudinal Spine Registry"},{"key":"5877_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"170","DOI":"10.3171\/2015.11.SPINE15872","volume":"25","author":"AL Asher","year":"2016","unstructured":"Asher AL, Chotai S, Devin CJ, Speroff T, Harrell FE Jr., Nian H, Dittus RS, Mummaneni PV, Knightly JJ, Glassman SD, Bydon M, Archer KR, Foley KT, McGirt MJ (2016) Inadequacy of 3-month Oswestry disability index outcome for assessing individual longer-term patient experience after lumbar spine surgery. J Neurosurg Spine 25:170\u2013180. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3171\/2015.11.SPINE15872","journal-title":"J Neurosurg Spine"},{"key":"5877_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"637","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2018.10.004","volume":"19","author":"VE Staartjes","year":"2019","unstructured":"Staartjes VE, Siccoli A, de Wispelaere MP, Schr\u00f6der ML (2019) Patient-reported outcomes unbiased by length of follow-up after lumbar degenerative spine surgery: do we need 2 years of follow-up? Spine J 19:637\u2013644. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spinee.2018.10.004","journal-title":"Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"700","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-017-5358-2","volume":"27","author":"TF Fekete","year":"2018","unstructured":"Fekete TF, Loibl M, Jeszenszky D, Haschtmann D, Banczerowski P, Kleinstuck FS, Becker HJ, Porchet F, Mannion AF (2018) How does patient-rated outcome change over time following the surgical treatment of degenerative disorders of the thoracolumbar spine? Eur Spine J 27:700\u2013708. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-017-5358-2","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1186\/s12955-023-02155-5","volume":"21","author":"R Ruseckaite","year":"2023","unstructured":"Ruseckaite R, Mudunna C, Caruso M, Ahern S (2023) Response rates in clinical quality registries and databases that collect patient reported outcome measures: a scoping review. Health Qual Life Outcomes 21:71. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1186\/s12955-023-02155-5","journal-title":"Health Qual Life Outcomes"},{"key":"5877_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"459","DOI":"10.3171\/2015.1.SPINE14890","volume":"23","author":"RG Whitmore","year":"2015","unstructured":"Whitmore RG, Curran JN, Ali ZS, Mummaneni PV, Shaffrey CI, Heary RF, Kaiser MG, Asher AL, Malhotra NR, Cheng JS, Hurlbert J, Smith JS, Magge SN, Steinmetz MP, Resnick DK, Ghogawala Z (2015) Predictive value of 3-month lumbar discectomy outcomes in the NeuroPoint-SD registry. J Neurosurg Spine 23:459\u2013466. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3171\/2015.1.SPINE14890","journal-title":"J Neurosurg Spine"},{"key":"5877_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"324","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-016-4668-0","volume":"26","author":"CG Fritsch","year":"2017","unstructured":"Fritsch CG, Ferreira ML, Maher CG, Herbert RD, Pinto RZ, Koes B, Ferreira PH (2017) The clinical course of pain and disability following surgery for spinal stenosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies. Eur Spine J 26:324\u2013335. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-016-4668-0","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1700","DOI":"10.1002\/ejp.893","volume":"20","author":"GC Machado","year":"2016","unstructured":"Machado GC, Witzleb AJ, Fritsch C, Maher CG, Ferreira PH, Ferreira ML (2016) Patients with sciatica still experience pain and disability 5 years after surgery: A systematic review with meta-analysis of cohort studies. Eur J Pain 20:1700\u20131709. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ejp.893","journal-title":"Eur J Pain"},{"key":"5877_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"847","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2020.01.010","volume":"20","author":"AM Asher","year":"2020","unstructured":"Asher AM, Oleisky ER, Pennings JS, Khan I, Sivaganesan A, Devin CJ, Bydon M, Asher AL, Archer KR (2020) Measuring clinically relevant improvement after lumbar spine surgery: is it time for something new? Spine J 20:847\u2013856. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spinee.2020.01.010","journal-title":"Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"E17","DOI":"10.3171\/2015.9.FOCUS15356","volume":"39","author":"SL Parker","year":"2015","unstructured":"Parker SL, Asher AL, Godil SS, Devin CJ, McGirt MJ (2015) Patient-reported outcomes 3 months after spine surgery: is it an accurate predictor of 12-month outcome in real-world registry platforms? Neurosurg Focus 39:E17. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3171\/2015.9.FOCUS15356","journal-title":"Neurosurg Focus"},{"key":"5877_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"600","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2019.12.010","volume":"20","author":"SD Rundell","year":"2020","unstructured":"Rundell SD, Pennings JS, Nian H, Harrell FE, Khan I, Bydon M, Asher AL, Devin CJ, Archer KR (2020) Adding 3-month patient data improves prognostic models of 12-month disability, pain, and satisfaction after specific lumbar spine surgical procedures: development and validation of a prediction model. Spine J 20:600\u2013613. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spinee.2019.12.010","journal-title":"Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"g7594","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.g7594","volume":"350","author":"GS Collins","year":"2015","unstructured":"Collins GS, Reitsma JB, Altman DG, Moons KG (2015) Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement. BMJ 350:g7594. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1136\/bmj.g7594","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"5877_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2940","DOI":"10.1097\/00007632-200011150-00017","volume":"25","author":"JC Fairbank","year":"2000","unstructured":"Fairbank JC, Pynsent PB (2000) The Oswestry disability index. Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 25:2940\u20132953. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/00007632-200011150-00017","journal-title":"Spine (Phila Pa 1976)"},{"key":"5877_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"523","DOI":"10.3109\/17453674.2015.1036696","volume":"86","author":"RC Clement","year":"2015","unstructured":"Clement RC, Welander A, Stowell C, Cha TD, Chen JL, Davies M, Fairbank JC, Foley KT, Gehrchen M, Hagg O, Jacobs WC, Kahler R, Khan SN, Lieberman IH, Morisson B, Ohnmeiss DD, Peul WC, Shonnard NH, Smuck MW, Solberg TK, Stromqvist BH, Hooff MLV, Wasan AD, Willems PC, Yeo W, Fritzell P (2015) A proposed set of metrics for standardized outcome reporting in the management of low back pain. Acta Orthop 86:523\u2013533. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3109\/17453674.2015.1036696","journal-title":"Acta Orthop"},{"key":"5877_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1221","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2016.06.010","volume":"16","author":"ML van Hooff","year":"2016","unstructured":"van Hooff ML, Mannion AF, Staub LP, Ostelo RWJG, Fairbank JCT (2016) Determination of the Oswestry disability index score equivalent to a satisfactory symptom state in patients undergoing surgery for degenerative disorders of the lumbar spine\u2014a spine Tango registry-based study. Spine J 16:1221\u20131230. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spinee.2016.06.010","journal-title":"Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S12","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2016.01.180","volume":"16","author":"TF Fekete","year":"2016","unstructured":"Fekete TF, Haschtmann D, Kleinst\u00fcck FS, Porchet F, Jeszenszky D, Mannion AF (2016) What level of pain are patients happy to live with after surgery for lumbar degenerative disorders? Spine J 16:S12\u2013S18. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spinee.2016.01.180","journal-title":"Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"4210","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-023-07931-x","volume":"32","author":"JH Geere","year":"2023","unstructured":"Geere JH, Hunter PR, Swamy GN, Cook AJ, Rai AS (2023) Development and Temporal validation of clinical prediction models for 1-year disability and pain after lumbar decompressive surgery. The Norwich lumbar surgery predictor (development version). Eur Spine J 32:4210\u20134219. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-023-07931-x","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR20","unstructured":"Portney LG, Watkins MP (2000) Foundations of clinical research: application to practice. Prentice Hall Upper Saddle River"},{"key":"5877_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118548387","volume-title":"Applied logistic regression","author":"DW Hosmer Jr","year":"2013","unstructured":"Hosmer DW Jr., Lemeshow S, Sturdivant RX (2013) Applied logistic regression. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, UNITED STATES"},{"key":"5877_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2187","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-019-05989-0","volume":"28","author":"C Parai","year":"2019","unstructured":"Parai C, H\u00e4gg O, Lind B, Brisby H (2019) Follow-up of degenerative lumbar spine surgery\u2014PROMs stabilize after 1 year: an equivalence study based on swespine data. Eur Spine J 28:2187\u20132197. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-019-05989-0","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"755","DOI":"10.1097\/brs.0000000000001894","volume":"42","author":"P Suri","year":"2017","unstructured":"Suri P, Pearson AM, Zhao W, Lurie JD, Scherer EA, Morgan TS, Weinstein JN (2017) Pain recurrence after discectomy for symptomatic lumbar disc herniation. Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 42:755\u2013763. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/brs.0000000000001894","journal-title":"Spine (Phila Pa 1976)"},{"key":"5877_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1093\/ptj\/82.1.8","volume":"82","author":"M Davidson","year":"2002","unstructured":"Davidson M, Keating JL (2002) A comparison of five low back disability questionnaires: reliability and responsiveness. Phys Ther 82:8\u201324. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ptj\/82.1.8","journal-title":"Phys Ther"},{"key":"5877_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1484","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-010-1353-6","volume":"19","author":"EF Maughan","year":"2010","unstructured":"Maughan EF, Lewis JS (2010) Outcome measures in chronic low back pain. Eur Spine J 19:1484\u20131494. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-010-1353-6","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"921","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2012.05.004","volume":"12","author":"JA Cleland","year":"2012","unstructured":"Cleland JA, Whitman JM, Houser JL, Wainner RS, Childs JD (2012) Psychometric properties of selected tests in patients with lumbar spinal stenosis. Spine J 12:921\u2013931. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spinee.2012.05.004","journal-title":"Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"55","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spinee.2020.07.013","volume":"21","author":"RA Coronado","year":"2021","unstructured":"Coronado RA, Robinette PE, Henry AL, Pennings JS, Haug CM, Skolasky RL, Riley LH, Neuman BJ, Cheng JS, Aaronson OS, Devin CJ, Wegener ST, Archer KR (2021) Bouncing back after lumbar spine surgery: early postoperative resilience is associated with 12-month physical function, pain interference, social participation, and disability. Spine J 21:55\u201363. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.spinee.2020.07.013","journal-title":"Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"E304","DOI":"10.1097\/brs.0000000000004214","volume":"47","author":"JA Canseco","year":"2022","unstructured":"Canseco JA, Chang M, Karamian BA, Nicholson K, Patel PD, Shenoy K, Hartman J, Kurd MF, Rihn JA, Anderson DG, Hilibrand AS, Kepler CK, Vaccaro AR, Schroeder GD (2022) Postoperative glycemic variability as a predictor of adverse outcomes following lumbar fusion. Spine (Phila Pa 1976) 47:E304\u2013e311. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/brs.0000000000004214","journal-title":"Spine (Phila Pa 1976)"},{"key":"5877_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"689","DOI":"10.3171\/2015.8.SPINE15476","volume":"25","author":"O Adogwa","year":"2016","unstructured":"Adogwa O, Elsamadicy AA, Han JL, Cheng J, Karikari I, Bagley CA (2016) Do measures of surgical effectiveness at 1 year after lumbar spine surgery accurately predict 2-year outcomes? J Neurosurg Spine 25:689\u2013696. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3171\/2015.8.SPINE15476","journal-title":"J Neurosurg Spine"},{"key":"5877_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3731","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-023-07874-3","volume":"32","author":"J Marjamaa","year":"2023","unstructured":"Marjamaa J, Huttunen J, Kankare J, Malmivaara A, Pernaa K, Salmenkivi J, Pekkanen L (2023) The Finnish spine register (FinSpine): development, design, validation and utility. Eur Spine J 32:3731\u20133743. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-023-07874-3","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-017-5255-8","volume":"27","author":"J Van Lerbeirghe","year":"2018","unstructured":"Van Lerbeirghe J, Van Schaeybroeck P, Robijn H, Rasschaert R, Sys J, Parlevliet T, Hallaert G, Van Wambeke P, Depreitere B (2018) Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Dutch version of the core outcome measures index for low back pain. Eur Spine J 27:76\u201382. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-017-5255-8","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"},{"key":"5877_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"663","DOI":"10.1007\/s00586-019-06222-8","volume":"29","author":"C Parai","year":"2020","unstructured":"Parai C, H\u00e4gg O, Lind B, Brisby H (2020) ISSLS prize in clinical science 2020: the reliability and interpretability of score change in lumbar spine research. Eur Spine J 29:663\u2013669. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00586-019-06222-8","journal-title":"Eur Spine J"}],"container-title":["Archives of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00402-025-05877-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00402-025-05877-x","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00402-025-05877-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,31]],"date-time":"2025-12-31T08:20:38Z","timestamp":1767169238000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s00402-025-05877-x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,24]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]}},"alternative-id":["5877"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00402-025-05877-x","relation":{"references":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1097\/BRS.0000000000002087","asserted-by":"subject"}]},"ISSN":["1434-3916"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1434-3916","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,24]]},"assertion":[{"value":"3 August 2024","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"6 April 2025","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"24 April 2025","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors have no competing financial or non-financial interests to declare.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}},{"value":"The study was approved by the Spire Norwich Hospital Ethics Committee and the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust Audit and Governance Committee (ref: 43119).","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethics approval"}}],"article-number":"260"}}