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It was the aim of our study to evaluate factors for prediction of risk of recurrence.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>In this retrospective cohort study we included 159 women with GDM and a subsequent pregnancy. Putative risk factors for GDM recurrence were analyzed by logistic regression models. Results were compared to a cohort of age-matched women without GDM as controls (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u2009318).<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>The overall risk of GDM recurrence was 72.3% (115\/159). Risk factors of recurrence were a body mass index (BMI)\u2009\u2265\u200930\u00a0kg\/m<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> before the index pregnancy (odds ratio (OR) 2.8 [95% CI 1.3\u20136.2], <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090,008), a BMI\u2009\u2265\u200925\u00a0kg\/m<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> before the subsequent pregnancy (OR 2.7 [95% CI 1.3\u20135.8]. <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.008), a positive family history (OR 4.3 [95% CI 1.2\u201315.4], <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.016) and insulin treatment during the index pregnancy (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1\u20134.6], <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.023). Delivery by caesarean section (index pregnancy) was of borderline significance (OR 2.2 [95% CI 0.9\u20135.2], <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.069). Interpregnancy weight gain, excessive weight gain during the index pregnancy and fetal outcome where not predictive for GDM recurrence. Neonates after GDM revealed a higher frequency of transfer to intensive care unit compared to healthy controls (OR 2.3 [95% CI 1.1\u20134.6], <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.0225). The best combined risk model for prediction of GDM recurrence including positive family history and a BMI\u2009\u2265\u200925\u00a0kg\/m<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> before the subsequent pregnancy revealed moderate test characteristics (positive likelihood ratio 7.8 [95% CI 1.1\u201354.7] and negative likelihood ratio 0.7 [95% CI 0.6\u20130.9]) with a positive predictive value of 96.6% in our cohort.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec><jats:sec>\n                <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                <jats:p>A positive family history of diabetes mellitus in combination with overweight or obesity were strongly associated with recurrence of a GDM in the subsequent pregnancy. Normalization of the pregravid BMI should be an effective approach for reducing the risk of GDM recurrence.<\/jats:p>\n              <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00404-022-06855-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,3]],"date-time":"2023-01-03T12:03:29Z","timestamp":1672747409000},"page":"689-697","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":18,"title":["Prediction of recurrent gestational diabetes mellitus: a retrospective cohort study"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"307","author":[{"given":"Stephan","family":"Hahn","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sabine","family":"K\u00f6rber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bernd","family":"Gerber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1284-6164","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Johannes","family":"Stubert","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,1,3]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"6855_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"676","DOI":"10.2337\/dc09-1848","volume":"33","author":"BE Metzger","year":"2010","unstructured":"International Association of D, Pregnancy Study Groups Consensus P, Metzger BE, Gabbe SG, Persson B, Buchanan TA, Catalano PA, Damm P, Dyer AR, Leiva A et al (2010) International association of diabetes and pregnancy study groups recommendations on the diagnosis and classification of hyperglycemia in pregnancy. 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