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No current method can determine an exact chronological age due to individual variations in biological development. This study seeks to develop a validated statistical model for estimating an age relative to key legal thresholds (15, 18, and 21\u00a0years) based on a skeletal (CT-clavicle, radiography-hand\/wrist or MR-knee) and tooth (radiography-third molar) developmental stages. The whole model is based on 34 scientific studies, divided into examinations of the hand\/wrist (15 studies), clavicle (5 studies), distal femur (4 studies), and third molars (10 studies). In total, data from approximately 27,000 individuals have been incorporated and the model has subsequently been validated with data from 5,000 individuals. The core framework of the model is built upon transition analysis and is further developed by a combination of a type of parametric bootstrapping and Bayesian theory. Validation of the model includes testing the models on independent datasets of individuals with known ages and shows a high precision with separate populations aligning closely with the model\u2019s predictions. The practical use of the complex statistical model requires a user-friendly tool to provide probabilities together with the margin of error. The assessment based on the model forms the medical component for the overall evaluation of an individual\u2019s age.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00414-024-03324-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,19]],"date-time":"2024-09-19T13:05:52Z","timestamp":1726751152000},"page":"197-217","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["A probability model for estimating age in young individuals relative to key legal thresholds: 15, 18 or 21-year"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"139","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9881-8182","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nina","family":"Heldring","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ali-Reza","family":"Rezaie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andr\u00e9","family":"Larsson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rebecca","family":"Gahn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Brita","family":"Zilg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Camilleri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Antoine","family":"Saade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philipp","family":"Wesp","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elias","family":"Palm","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ola","family":"Kvist","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"3324_CR1","unstructured":"EASO practical guide on age assessment, 2nd edn (2018) European asylum support office. https:\/\/euaa.europa.eu\/sites\/default\/files\/easo-practical-guide-on-age-assesment-v3-2018.pdf"},{"key":"3324_CR2","unstructured":"Report: Biological evaluation methods to assist in assessing the age of unaccompanied asylum\u2011seeking children. 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On page 4 of the PDF version, in the section titled \u201cData extraction and simulating population age distributions,\u201d the second-of-last sentence mistakenly includes the extraneous data \u201c33333333\u201d. The correct sentence should read: \u201cThe resulting bivariate normal distribution is then used to recreate the CA and the stages for each individual in the study\u201d.","order":7,"name":"change_details","label":"Change Details","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"6 August 2026","order":8,"name":"change_date","label":"Change Date","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"Correction","order":9,"name":"change_type","label":"Change Type","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"A Correction to this paper has been published:","order":10,"name":"change_details","label":"Change Details","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00414-026-03732-1","URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00414-026-03732-1","order":11,"name":"change_details","label":"Change Details","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"5 October 2024","order":12,"name":"change_date","label":"Change Date","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"Correction","order":13,"name":"change_type","label":"Change Type","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"A Correction to this paper has been published:","order":14,"name":"change_details","label":"Change Details","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00414-024-03347-4","URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00414-024-03347-4","order":15,"name":"change_details","label":"Change Details","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"The retrospective collection and assessment of development stage of clavicle to generate the validation population was approved by the Swedish Ethics Review Authority (Approval number Dnr 2024\u201300531-01). The Ethics Committee, Medical Faculty, LMU Munich approved the sharing of a retrospectively collected and assessed clavicle dataset (20\u2013324).","order":1,"name":"Ethics","label":"Ethical approval","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare no conflict of interest.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","label":"Competing interest","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}}]}}