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This study evaluated the potential efficacy of interlandmark distances (ILDs) derived from three-dimensional (3D) cranial models obtained from Cone Beam Computed Tomography (CBCT) scans of South African black, coloured, indian and white subadults, and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to estimate population affinity. Results indicated that the combined midface and cranial base model contained the most population-specific variation, with black South Africans achieving the highest classification accuracy. The best-performing multivariate model achieved a 79.17% accuracy and a kappa of 0.67. Age-stratified models produced slightly lower classification rates, suggesting that early ontogenetic trajectories during childhood may obscure population differences. Indian South Africans were consistently misclassified across all models, likely reflecting both challenges posed by limited sample size and substantial heterogeneity and overlap with other groups. While age had a limited influence on the predictive performance, ILDs show considerable promise for subadult classification, particularly when combining measurements from the facial skeleton and cranial base. These findings indicate that population-specific craniofacial variation is detectable across subadult development and that incorporating the full developmental sample may yield more accurate classifications than age-stratified approaches.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00414-026-04018-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,22]],"date-time":"2026-09-22T02:17:32Z","timestamp":1790043452000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Craniometric evaluation of population affinity among South African subadults"],"prefix":"10.1007","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5279-9067","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Miksha","family":"Harripershad","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4541-6777","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kyra E.","family":"Stull","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9129-423X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alison F.","family":"Ridel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4756-8854","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Charlotte E. 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Clearance and permission to obtain and analyse CBCT scans were granted by the National Health Research Database for the purposes of this study (Ethics approval number: 559\/2023). In addition, approval to access and use the CBCT scans was obtained from the relevant Heads of Department, as well as the CEO\/CS at the respective facilities where the scans were collected (KZ_202310_032; HRRC\/05\/02\/2024; GSH_202311_30). The CBCT scans were originally acquired as part of routine clinical care for diagnostic purposes and not specifically for research. No direct participant contact was involved, and no additional parental consent was obtained for research use of the anonymised data under the conditions of the ethics approvals. 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