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In 12 of those participants, power output at VT\n 1<\/jats:sub>\n was assessed every hour until task failure. For every assessment of power output at VT\n 1<\/jats:sub>\n , HR, F\n R<\/jats:sub>\n , and\n \n \n $$\\dot V$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n \n \n V<\/mml:mi>\n \u02d9<\/mml:mo>\n <\/mml:mover>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n \u0307\n E<\/jats:sub>\n was measured at fixed power outputs, and thus decoupling of these variables with power output was determined. Bivariate repeated-measures correlations (r\n rm<\/jats:sub>\n ) between decoupling and durability of VT\n 1<\/jats:sub>\n were assessed. Multivariable models were created to predict power output at VT\n 1<\/jats:sub>\n during prolonged exercise using generalised estimating equations.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results<\/jats:title>\n \n Negative correlations were observed between exercise-induced change in power output at VT\n 1<\/jats:sub>\n and HR (r\n rm<\/jats:sub>\n \u2009=\u2009\u22120.76,\n P<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009<\u20090.001) and F\n R<\/jats:sub>\n (r\n rm<\/jats:sub>\n \u2009=\u2009\u22120.40,\n P<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009=\u20090.013) decoupling, but not\n \n \n $$\\dot V$$<\/jats:tex-math>\n \n \n V<\/mml:mi>\n \u02d9<\/mml:mo>\n <\/mml:mover>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:alternatives>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n \u0307\n E<\/jats:sub>\n decoupling (r\n rm<\/jats:sub>\n \u2009=\u2009\u22120.25,\n P<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009=\u20090.136). The final prediction model, containing baseline VT\n 1<\/jats:sub>\n and peak oxygen uptake, F\n R<\/jats:sub>\n decoupling, and an interaction between HR decoupling and exercise duration, effectively predicted real-time VT\n 1<\/jats:sub>\n (mean absolute error,\u2009~\u20097.2 W;\n R<\/jats:italic>\n 2<\/jats:sup>\n , 0.95).\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n \n HR and\/or F\n R<\/jats:sub>\n decoupling during controlled training sessions may be a practically useful durability assessment. Our prediction models may be an effective means of improving within-session intensity regulation and training load monitoring.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00421-025-05815-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,22]],"date-time":"2025-05-22T04:01:54Z","timestamp":1747886514000},"page":"2911-2920","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Durability of the moderate-to-heavy intensity transition can be predicted using readily available markers of physiological decoupling"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"125","author":[{"given":"Jeffrey A.","family":"Rothschild","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gabriele","family":"Gallo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kate","family":"Hamilton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julian D.","family":"Stevenson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Harrison","family":"Dudley-Rode","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thanchanok","family":"Charoensap","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel J.","family":"Plews","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew E.","family":"Kilding","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2329-959X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ed","family":"Maunder","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,5,22]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"5815_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"133","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8766","volume":"40","author":"L Archer","year":"2021","unstructured":"Archer L, Snell LIE, Ensor J, Hudda MT, Collins GS, Riley RD (2021) Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a continuous outcome. 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