{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,23]],"date-time":"2026-10-23T19:11:26Z","timestamp":1792782686845,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788134400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788134400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"Universidade Federal De Alagoas","id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00dna7t83","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Int J Biometeorol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Scorpionism has emerged as a growing public health concern in Brazil, characterized by increasing incidence and geographic expansion. Despite this trend, studies integrating climatic drivers and advanced time-series modeling remain limited. This study aims to analyze the temporal dynamics, spatial diffusion, and climate\u2013disease relationships of scorpion sting incidence in Brazil using a nationwide dataset from 2007 to 2025. Monthly scorpion sting data from SINAN\/DATASUS were combined with high-resolution climatic variables from the TerraClimate dataset. Descriptive statistics, seasonal analysis, and lagged correlation were applied to explore temporal patterns. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature and precipitation on scorpion sting incidence. The results revealed a pronounced non-linear increase in scorpionism, with a structural breakpoint around 2011 indicating accelerated expansion. Seasonal patterns showed higher incidence between September and November. Lag analysis demonstrated that temperature had the strongest association with incidence, peaking at a one-month lag (\n                    <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009\u2248\u20090.57), while precipitation exhibited weaker but delayed effects. DLNM results confirmed significant non-linear and lag-dependent relationships, with elevated temperatures associated with increased risk at short lag periods. Scorpionism in Brazil is a climate-sensitive and dynamically evolving epidemiological system, driven by the interaction of environmental variability and urban expansion. These findings highlight the need for integrated, climate-informed public health strategies and predictive modeling approaches to mitigate future risk.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-026-03311-4","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T08:21:02Z","timestamp":1788164462000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Nonlinear expansion, spatial diffusion, and climate-driven dynamics of scorpionism in Brazil: a nationwide time-series and DLNM analysis (2007\u20132025)"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"70","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3943-9769","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elania Barros","family":"da Silva","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6131-7605","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jos\u00e9 Francisco","family":"de Oliveira J\u00fanior","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8168-1482","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amaury","family":"de Souza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1418-5109","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David","family":"Mendes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9841-8488","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"M\u00f4nica Dayane Albuquerque","family":"Ten\u00f3rio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8667-8100","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Luis Felipe Francisco Ferreira","family":"da Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4391-8167","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kelvy Rosalvo Alencar","family":"Cardoso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8465-0649","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sudhir Kumar","family":"Singh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"3311_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Abatzoglou JT, Dobrowski SZ, Parks SA, Hegewisch KC. TerraClimate: a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958\u20132015. Sci Data. 2018;5:170191.","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2017.191"},{"key":"3311_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Almeida, A. C. C. D., Mise, Y. F., Carvalho, F. M., & Silva, R. M. L. D. (2021). Associa\u00e7\u00e3o ecol\u00f3gica entre fatores socioecon\u00f4micos, ocupacionais e de saneamento e a ocorr\u00eancia de escorpionismo no Brasil, 2007\u20132019. Epidemiologia e servi\u00e7os de sa\u00fade, 30, e2021009.","DOI":"10.1590\/s1679-49742021000400021"},{"key":"3311_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Andrade Moura, T., Ojanguren-Affilastro, A. A., Sasa, M., Guti\u00e9rrez, J. M., Silva, F. F., Siqueira-Silva, T., & Martinez, P. A. (2025). AI models uncover factors influencing scorpionism in Northern Brazil. Toxicon, 258, 108342.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.toxicon.2025.108342"},{"key":"3311_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Borges, R. F., Dergan, J. N., Torrez, P. P. Q., Freitas, V. L. T. D., Bertolozzi, M. R., Magalh\u00e3es, \u00c1. B., \u2026 & Fran\u00e7a, F. O. D. S. (2025). Scorpionism in Par\u00e1, Brazil: Clinical assessment of neuromuscular manifestations. Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 58, e0053-2025.","DOI":"10.1590\/0037-8682-0053-2025"},{"key":"3311_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Bradley, R. A. (1988). The influence of weather and biotic factors on the behaviour of the scorpion (Paruroctonus utahensis). The Journal of Animal Ecology, 533\u2013551.","DOI":"10.2307\/4923"},{"key":"3311_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Briz-Red\u00f3n, \u00c1., Corber\u00e1n\u2010Vallet, A., Iftimi, A., & \u00cd\u00f1iguez, C. (2026). A Mixture of Distributed Lag Non\u2010Linear Models to Account for Spatially Heterogeneous Exposure\u2010Lag\u2010Response Associations. Statistics in Medicine, 45(15\u201317), e70661.","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.70661"},{"key":"3311_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Chiaravalloti-Neto F, Lorenz C, Lacerda AB, Azevedo TS, C\u00e2ndido DM, Eloy LJ, et al. Spatiotemporal Bayesian modelling of scorpionism and its risk factors in S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2023;17(6):e0011435.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011435"},{"key":"3311_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Kenward MG. Distributed lag non-linear models. Stat Med. 2010;29(21):2224\u20132234.","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.3940"},{"key":"3311_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gasparrini A. Distributed lag linear and non-linear models in R: the package dlnm. J Stat Softw. 2011;43(8):1\u201320.","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v043.i08"},{"key":"3311_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Guerra-Duarte C, Saavedra-Langer R, Matavel A, Oliveira-Mendes BB, Chavez-Olortegui C, Paiva ALB. Scorpion envenomation in Brazil: current scenario and perspectives for containing an increasing health problem. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2023;17(2):e0011069.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0011069"},{"key":"3311_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Karmaoui, A., & Sereno, D. (2026). Scorpionism at the human\u2013environment interface: an eco-epidemiological synthesis and conceptual framework. Frontiers in Public Health, 14, 1771779.","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2026.1771779"},{"key":"3311_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lacerda AB, C\u00e2ndido DM, Azevedo TS, Wen FH, Freitas GD, Dourado FS, et al. Scorpionism in Brazil: space-time approach and risk areas (2012\u20132024). PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2025;19(10):e0013602.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0013602"},{"key":"3311_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Lacerda AB, Lorenz C, Azevedo TS, C\u00e2ndido DM, Wen FH, Eloy LJ, et al. Scorpion envenomation in the state of S\u00e3o Paulo, Brazil: spatiotemporal analysis of a growing public health concern. PLoS One. 2022;17(4):e0266138.","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0266138"},{"key":"3311_CR14","unstructured":"Lisboa NS, Boere V, Neves FM. Scorpionism in the far south of Bahia, Brazil, 2010\u20132017: case profile and factors associated with severity. Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2020;29:e2019345."},{"key":"3311_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Louren\u00e7o WR, Cloudsley-Thompson JL, Cuellar O, Eickstedt VV, Barraviera B, Knox MB. The evolution of scorpionism in Brazil in recent years. J Venom Anim Toxins. 1996;2:121\u2013134.","DOI":"10.1590\/S0104-79301996000200005"},{"key":"3311_CR16","unstructured":"Louren\u00e7o WR. Scorpion ecology and distribution: the role of environmental factors in scorpionism. Toxicon. 2018;151:1\u201310."},{"key":"3311_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Pucca, M. B., Cavalcante, J. S., Jati, S. R., Cerni, F. A., Ferreira Jr, R. S., & Arantes, E. C. (2025). Scorpions are taking over: the silent and escalating public health crisis in Brazil. Frontiers in Public Health, 13, 1573767.","DOI":"10.3389\/fpubh.2025.1573767"},{"key":"3311_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Quijal-Zamorano, M., Martinez-Beneito, M. A., Ballester, J., & Mar\u00ed-Dell\u2019Olmo, M. (2024). Spatial Bayesian distributed lag non-linear models (SB-DLNM) for small-area exposure-lag-response epidemiological modelling. International journal of epidemiology, 53(3), dyae061.","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyae061"},{"key":"3311_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Reckziegel GC, Pinto VL. Scorpionism in Brazil in the years 2000 to 2012. J Venom Anim Toxins Incl Trop Dis. 2014;20:02\u201308.","DOI":"10.1186\/1678-9199-20-46"},{"key":"3311_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Santos JLCS, Santos AJ, Santos VF, Silva ED, Magalh\u00e3es CD, Silva JR, et al. Spatio-temporal patterns of scorpionism in Alagoas, northeastern Brazil: ecological study (2007\u20132021). Diversitas Journal. 2023;8(4).","DOI":"10.48017\/dj.v8i4.2751"},{"key":"3311_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Silva Pinheiro, R., do Nascimento, I. F., de Ara\u00fajo Lira, A. F., de Barros, R. F. M., & Silva, P. R. R. (2026). Socioenvironmental, socioeconomic, and public management indicators as predictors of scorpionism in Brazil. Toxicon, 109135.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.toxicon.2026.109135"},{"key":"3311_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Torrez PPQ, Dourado FS, Bertani R, Cupo P, Fran\u00e7a FOS. Scorpionism in Brazil: exponential growth of accidents and deaths from scorpion stings. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop. 2019;52:e20180350.","DOI":"10.1590\/0037-8682-0350-2018"},{"key":"3311_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Zanetta S, Germino C, Rodrigues I, Waragaia A. Urbanization and increased cases of scorpionism in Brazilian cities. Eur J Public Health. 2020;30(Suppl 5):ckaa166-163.","DOI":"10.1093\/eurpub\/ckaa166.163"}],"container-title":["International Journal of Biometeorology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00484-026-03311-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s00484-026-03311-4","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s00484-026-03311-4.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,25]],"date-time":"2026-09-25T07:25:42Z","timestamp":1790321142000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s00484-026-03311-4"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]]},"references-count":23,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["3311"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s00484-026-03311-4","relation":{},"ISSN":["0020-7128","1432-1254"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0020-7128","type":"print"},{"value":"1432-1254","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]]},"assertion":[{"value":"27 May 2026","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"20 July 2026","order":2,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"22 August 2026","order":3,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"31 August 2026","order":4,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"This study was conducted using secondary, aggregated, and publicly available data, with no identification of individuals. Therefore, according to Brazilian regulations (Resolution No. 510\/2016 of the National Health Council), ethical approval and informed consent were not required.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","label":"Ethics Statement","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"There is no conflict of interest.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","label":"Competing Interests","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}}],"article-number":"245"}}