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This study assesses how changes in temperature, snow dynamics, and rainfall extremes affect the snow-free reproductive window across Arctic tundra systems. We combined ERA5 reanalysis (1940\u20132024), daily output from ten CMIP6 Earth System Models, and long-term equilibrium simulations (400 years) from EC-Earth3 under present-day and doubled CO\u2082 conditions. Analyses focused on lowland tundra regions and quantified changes in snow cover, timing and duration of the productive period, and the frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events. Results show substantial Arctic warming under SSP2-4.5 (approximately 4.9 \u00b0C by 2081\u20132100 relative to 1995\u20132014), reductions in snowfall, and declining snow cover across the Arctic. Separately, the idealized EC-Earth equilibrium experiment, representing approximately 6 \u00b0C of global-mean warming relative to pre-industrial conditions in the 2\u00d7CO\u2082 state, shows how reproductive-season hydroclimate responds under strong sustained warming. Between the 1\u00d7CO\u2082 and 2\u00d7CO\u2082 equilibrium states, the snow-free period lengthens substantially due to earlier snowmelt (\u201328 days) and delayed snow onset (+36 days), while rainfall extremes intensify sharply. Extremely wet days become up to sixteen times more frequent, and rainfall events with a 100-year return period in the 1\u00d7CO\u2082 climate recur every 2\u20139 years in the 2\u00d7CO\u2082 climate, with particularly large relative changes in historically dry regions. These results show that a longer snow-free season under strong warming can coincide with substantially greater exposure to rainfall extremes, highlighting the importance of hydroclimatic extremes when assessing ecological responses to Arctic climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-026-03348-5","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T11:08:20Z","timestamp":1792148900000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Changes in temperature, rainfall and snow cover during the reproductive season of Arctic-breeding birds"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"70","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2273-2280","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nomikos","family":"Skyllas","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicoleta","family":"Tsakali","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hans","family":"Linssen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas K.","family":"Lameris","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bart A.","family":"Nolet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richard","family":"Bintanja","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]]},"reference":[{"issue":"3","key":"3348_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1033","DOI":"10.1007\/s00442-013-2800-y","volume":"174","author":"A Anctil","year":"2014","unstructured":"Anctil A, Franke A, B\u00eaty J (2014) Heavy rainfall increases nestling mortality of an Arctic top predator: Experimental evidence and long-term trend in peregrine falcons. 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