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Data from participants (N\u2009=\u2009130,793) aged 10\u201329\u00a0years who were diagnosed with MDD were extracted from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. We applied demographic analyses, survival analysis, Aalen Johansen curves, and Cox regression, investigating the diagnostic conversion rate and factors that were most or less predictive of conversion. Among the adolescents and young adults with MDD, the number of participant conversion subsample is 14,187 and the conversion rate was 13.80% (95% confidence interval: 13.54\u201314.06%) during the 11-year follow-up. The conversion rate was highest in the first year (4.50%; 4.39\u20134.61%) and decreased over time. The significant predictors were younger age of diagnosis with MDD (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001), moderate and high antidepressant resistance (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001), obesity (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001), psychiatric comorbidities (attention-deficit\/hyperactivity disorder, substance use disorder, and cluster B and C personality disorder, all <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001), a family history of mental disorders (schizophrenia and mood disorders, all <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.05), lower monthly income (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001), and more mental health visits to the clinic each year (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001). A composite of demographic characteristics, antidepressant resistance, physical and psychiatric comorbidities, and family history significantly predicted diagnostic conversion from MDD to BD (area under the curve\u2009=\u20090.795, <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001). Compared to adult population, the adolescents and young adults had different factors that were most or less predictive of conversion, which warrants further investigation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s00787-024-02401-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,29]],"date-time":"2024-03-29T12:02:41Z","timestamp":1711713761000},"page":"3625-3635","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["Diagnostic conversion to bipolar disorder among adolescents and young adults with major depressive disorder: a nationwide longitudinal study"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"33","author":[{"given":"Fan-Hsuan","family":"Kung","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chia-Kuang","family":"Tsai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chih-Ming","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shih-Jen","family":"Tsai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tung-Ping","family":"Su","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tzeng-Ji","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ya-Mei","family":"Bai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1138-5586","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chih-Sung","family":"Liang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6516-1073","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mu-Hong","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,29]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2\u20133","key":"2401_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"149","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-0327(03)00195-2","volume":"84","author":"J Angst","year":"2005","unstructured":"Angst J, Sellaro R, Stassen HH, Gamma A (2005) Diagnostic conversion from depression to bipolar disorders: results of a long-term prospective study of hospital admissions. 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