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Sex-stratified Bayesian linear regression models were applied to logit-transformed rates. Prefectures were considered likely to achieve the target if the probability of\u2009\u2265\u200960% uptake by 2028 was\u2009\u2265\u200980%.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Nationwide coverage is projected to reach 51.9% (95% CrI 44.9\u201358.8%) by 2028, falling 8.1 percentage points short of the 60% target. Forty of 47 prefectures (85%) had less than a 20% posterior probability of meeting the target, and 14 were projected below 50% coverage. Only Yamagata exceeded the 80% probability threshold for the total population (probability 0.988). For men, three prefectures did (Yamagata, Yamanashi, Miyagi), versus one for women. Men outperformed women in 41 of 47 prefectures, with a median sex gap in target probability of 8.0 percentage points and a median lag of 6\u00a0years in projected achievement.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Based on 2013\u20132022 trends, Japan is projected to miss the 60% CRC screening target by over a decade. Most prefectures had less than a 5% estimated probability of reaching 60% by 2028, and women lag men by a median of 6\u00a0years. Incremental progress under the current system appears insufficient. Reaching the target will require accelerated, prefecture-specific, and sex-sensitive interventions beyond what the current system delivers.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10147-026-03150-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]],"date-time":"2026-07-27T13:27:50Z","timestamp":1785158870000},"page":"2415-2425","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Forecasting colorectal cancer screening in Japan: regional and sex disparities threaten national targets"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"31","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3483-5746","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hasan","family":"Jamil","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-8902-081X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Aminu Kende","family":"Abubakar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takao","family":"Suzuki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tshewang","family":"Gyeltshen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hellen Wairimu","family":"Babu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5093-9767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Phuong The","family":"Nguyen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"3150_CR1","volume-title":"Cancer statistics 2025","author":"Cancer Statistics in Japan Editorial Board","year":"2025","unstructured":"Cancer Statistics in Japan Editorial Board (2025) Cancer statistics 2025. 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