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Constructing synthetic controls for each of Bavaria\u2019s 96 districts based on non-Bavarian German districts, we find that over a third of the increase in positive test results cannot be explained by district-level demographic, economic, health or child care characteristics, nor by the distance to Ischgl \u2014 a proxy for skiing tourism associated with the first COVID-19 wave in Germany. Within Bavaria, districts with higher voter participation witnessed a steeper increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths after the election, while controlling for alternative drivers, such as the distance to Ischgl and the number of strong-beer festivals. Our results are highly robust and suggest that an unfortunate timing of elections contributed to the spreading of an infectious disease.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10198-026-01989-2","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T08:14:47Z","timestamp":1792138487000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The toll of voting in a pandemic? Regional elections and the spread of COVID-19 in Bavaria"],"prefix":"10.1007","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0726-0449","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jochen","family":"G\u00fcntner","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0001-9113-5327","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gerrit","family":"Stahn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1131-3048","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amelie","family":"Wuppermann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Felix","family":"Zwies","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"1989_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"495","DOI":"10.1111\/ajps.12116","volume":"59","author":"A Abadie","year":"2015","unstructured":"Abadie, A., A. 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