{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T13:11:28Z","timestamp":1791465088469,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,27]],"date-time":"2020-04-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1587945600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,27]],"date-time":"2020-04-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1587945600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100011098","name":"Stanford Bio-X","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100011098","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001655","name":"DAAD","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001655","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Biomech Model Mechanobiol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,12]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s10237-020-01332-5","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,27]],"date-time":"2020-04-27T13:41:49Z","timestamp":1587994909000},"page":"2179-2193","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":104,"title":["Outbreak dynamics of COVID-19 in China and the United States"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Mathias","family":"Peirlinck","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kevin","family":"Linka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Francisco","family":"Sahli Costabal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6283-935X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ellen","family":"Kuhl","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"1332_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1053","DOI":"10.1126\/science.7063839","volume":"215","author":"RM Anderson","year":"1982","unstructured":"Anderson RM, May RM (1982) Directly transmitted infectious diseases: control by vaccination. Science 215:1053\u20131060","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"1332_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"665","DOI":"10.1016\/S0022-5193(84)80150-2","volume":"110","author":"JL Aron","year":"1984","unstructured":"Aron JL, Schwartz IB (1984) Seasonality and period-doubling bifurcation in an epidemic model. J Theor Biol 110:665\u2013679","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"key":"1332_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"21484","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0906910106","volume":"106","author":"D Balcan","year":"2009","unstructured":"Balcan D, Colizza V, Goncalves B, Hu H, Jamasco J, Vespignani A (2009) Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:21484\u201321489","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"1332_CR4","unstructured":"Bernoulli D (1760) Essay d\u2019une nouvelle analyse de la mortalite causee par la petite verole et des avantages de l\u2019inoculation pour la prevenir. Mem Math Phys Acad R Sci Paris 1\u201345"},{"key":"1332_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Bi Q, Wu Y, Mei S, Ye C, Zou X, Zhang Z, Feng T (2020) Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzheng China: analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts. medRxiv https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.03.03.20028423","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.03.03.20028423"},{"key":"1332_CR6","unstructured":"Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2019) Non-stop segment passengers transported by OriginState\/DestState for 2019. https:\/\/www.transtats.bts.gov. Accessed 30 Mar 2020"},{"key":"1332_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2015","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0510525103","volume":"103","author":"V Colizza","year":"2006","unstructured":"Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Vespignani A (2006) The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci 103:2015\u20132020","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci"},{"key":"1332_CR9","unstructured":"Coronavirus (2020) COVID-19 global cases by the center for systems science and engineering. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore. https:\/\/coronavirus.jhu.edu\/map.html, https:\/\/github.com\/CSSEGISandData\/covid-19. Accessed 4 Apr 2020"},{"key":"1332_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2501.171901","volume":"25","author":"PL Delamater","year":"2019","unstructured":"Delamater PL, Street EJ, Leslie TF, Yang YT, Jacobsen KH (2019) Complexity of the basic reproduction number ($${\\text{ R }}_0$$). Emerg Infect Dis 25:1\u20134","journal-title":"Emerg Infect Dis"},{"key":"1332_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"23","DOI":"10.1177\/096228029300200103","volume":"2","author":"K Dietz","year":"1993","unstructured":"Dietz K (1993) The estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases. Stat Methods Med Res 2:23\u201341","journal-title":"Stat Methods Med Res"},{"key":"1332_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.25750","author":"Y Fang","year":"2020","unstructured":"Fang Y, Nie Y, Penny M (2020) Transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak and effectiveness of government interventions: a data-driven analysis. J Med Virol. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jmv.25750","journal-title":"J Med Virol"},{"key":"1332_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"265","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.epirev.a036121","volume":"15","author":"PEM Fine","year":"1993","unstructured":"Fine PEM (1993) Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiol Rev 15:265\u2013302","journal-title":"Epidemiol Rev"},{"key":"1332_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"20190356","DOI":"10.1098\/rsif.2019.0356","volume":"16","author":"S Fornari","year":"2019","unstructured":"Fornari S, Schafer A, Jucker M, Goriely A, Kuhl E (2019) Prion-like spreading of Alzheimer\u2019s disease within the brain\u2019s connectome. J R Soc Interface 16:20190356","journal-title":"J R Soc Interface"},{"key":"1332_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Gorbalenya AE, Baker SC, Baric RS, de Groot RJ, Drosten C, Gulyaeva AA, Haagmans BL, Lauber C, Leontovich AM, Neuman BW, Penzar D, Perlman S, Poon LLM, Samborskiy D, Sidorov IA, Sola I, Ziebuhr J (2020) Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: the species and its viruses-a statement of the coronavirus study group. bioRxiv https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.02.07.937862","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.02.07.937862"},{"key":"1332_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Heiden M, Buchholz U (2020) Modellierung von Beispielszenarien der SARS-CoV-2-Epedemie 2020 in Deutschland. Robert Koch Institut, Germany. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25646\/6571.2","DOI":"10.25646\/6571.2"},{"key":"1332_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"599","DOI":"10.1137\/S0036144500371907","volume":"42","author":"HW Hethcote","year":"2000","unstructured":"Hethcote HW (2000) The mathematics of infectious diseases. SIAM Rev 42:599\u2013653","journal-title":"SIAM Rev"},{"key":"1332_CR19","volume-title":"Here\u2019s how computer models simulate the future spread of new coronavirus","author":"J Hsu","year":"2020","unstructured":"Hsu J (2020) Here\u2019s how computer models simulate the future spread of new coronavirus. Scientific American, Berlin"},{"issue":"2020","key":"1332_CR20","first-page":"264","volume":"91","author":"DS Hu","year":"2019","unstructured":"Hu DS, Azhar EI, Madani TA, Ntoumi F, Kock R, Dar O, Ippolito G, Mchogh TD, Memish ZA, Drosten C, Zumla A, Petersen E (2019) The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic thread of novel coronaviruses to global health\u2014the latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. China Int J Infect Dis 91(2020):264\u2013266","journal-title":"China Int J Infect Dis"},{"key":"1332_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"700","DOI":"10.1098\/rspa.1927.0118","volume":"115","author":"WO Kermack","year":"1927","unstructured":"Kermack WO, McKendrick G (1927) Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics, part I. Proc R Soc Lond Ser A 115:700\u2013721","journal-title":"Proc R Soc Lond Ser A"},{"key":"1332_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/M20-0504","author":"SA Lauer","year":"2020","unstructured":"Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, Jones FK, Zheng Q, Meredith HR, Azman AS, Reich NG, Lessler J (2020) The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application. Ann Intern Med. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7326\/M20-0504","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"key":"1332_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(95)92756-5","volume":"125","author":"MY Li","year":"1984","unstructured":"Li MY, Muldowney JS (1984) Global stability for the SEIR model in epidemiology. Math Biosci 125:155\u2013164","journal-title":"Math Biosci"},{"key":"1332_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2001316","author":"Q Li","year":"2020","unstructured":"Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Feng Z (2020) Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. New Engl J Med. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1056\/NEJMoa2001316","journal-title":"New Engl J Med"},{"key":"1332_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Liu Y, Bayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklov J (2020) The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus. J. Travel Medicine 1-4","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taaa021"},{"key":"1332_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Maier BF, Brockmann D (2020) Effective containment explains sub-exponential growth in cofirmed cases of recent COVID-19 outbreak in mainland China. medRxiv https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1101\/2020.02.18.20024414","DOI":"10.1101\/2020.02.18.20024414"},{"key":"1332_CR29","unstructured":"National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual Population by Province. http:\/\/data.stats.gov.cn. Accessed 30 Mar 2020"},{"key":"1332_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"925","DOI":"10.1103\/RevModPhys.87.925","volume":"87","author":"R Pastor-Satorras","year":"2015","unstructured":"Pastor-Satorras R, Castallano C, Van Mieghem P, Vespignani A (2015) Epidemic processes in complex networks. Rev Mod Phys 87:925\u2013979","journal-title":"Rev Mod Phys"},{"key":"1332_CR31","unstructured":"World Health Organization. WHO Virtual press conference on COVID-19. https:\/\/www.who.int.docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/transcripts\/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-full-and-final-11mar2020.pdf?sfvrsn=cb432bb3_2 recorded 11 Mar 2020; accessed 16 Mar 2020"},{"key":"1332_CR32","unstructured":"World Health Organization. How COVID-19 spreads. https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/coronavirus\/2019-ncov\/prevent-getting-sick\/how-covid-spreads.html. Accessed 4 Apr 2020"},{"key":"1332_CR33","unstructured":"World Population Review. United States Ranked by Population. https:\/\/worldpopulationreview.com\/states\/. Accessed 30 Mar 2020"},{"key":"1332_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2216","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-019-38665-w","volume":"9","author":"A Zlojutro","year":"2019","unstructured":"Zlojutro A, Rey D, Gardner L (2019) A decision-support framework to optimize border control for global outbreak mitigation. Sci Rep 9:2216","journal-title":"Sci Rep"}],"container-title":["Biomechanics and Modeling in Mechanobiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10237-020-01332-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10237-020-01332-5\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10237-020-01332-5.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,26]],"date-time":"2021-04-26T20:45:46Z","timestamp":1619469946000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s10237-020-01332-5"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,27]]},"references-count":30,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,12]]}},"alternative-id":["1332"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10237-020-01332-5","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2020.04.06.20055863","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["1617-7959","1617-7940"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1617-7959","type":"print"},{"value":"1617-7940","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,4,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"6 April 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"16 April 2020","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"27 April 2020","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"This content has been made available to all.","name":"free","label":"Free to read"}]}}