{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,17]],"date-time":"2026-09-17T09:00:59Z","timestamp":1789635659154,"version":"4.0.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"11","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]],"date-time":"2021-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1627344000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]],"date-time":"2021-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1627344000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002341","name":"the Academy of Finland","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["Grant No 260931"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Grant No 260931"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002341","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"the Cancer Society of Finland"},{"name":"Competitive State Research Funding administered by Pirkanmaa University Hospital special responsibility area."}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Cancer Causes Control"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s10552-021-01480-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]],"date-time":"2021-07-27T07:02:48Z","timestamp":1627369368000},"page":"1299-1313","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["Estimating the rate of overdiagnosis with prostate cancer screening: evidence from the Finnish component of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"32","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4157-8928","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"S. D.","family":"Walter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiarui","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kirsi","family":"Talala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Teuvo","family":"Tammela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kimmo","family":"Taari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anssi","family":"Auvinen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"1480_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"38","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eururo.2019.08.005","volume":"77","author":"MB Culp","year":"2020","unstructured":"Culp MB, Soerjomataram I, Efstathiou JA, Bray F, Jemal A (2020) Recent global patterns in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eur Urol 77:38\u201352","journal-title":"Eur Urol"},{"key":"1480_CR2","volume-title":"Cancer Facts & Figures 2017","author":"American Cancer Society","year":"2018","unstructured":"American Cancer Society (2018) Cancer Facts & Figures 2017. American Cancer Society, Atlanta"},{"key":"1480_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"883","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2018.0154","volume":"319","author":"RM Martin","year":"2018","unstructured":"Martin RM, Donovan JL, Turner EL et al (2018) Effect of a low-intensity PSA-based screening intervention on prostate cancer mortality: the CAP randomized clinical trial. JAMA 319:883\u2013895","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"1480_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1158\/1055-9965.EPI-15-0723","volume":"25","author":"RM Hoffman","year":"2016","unstructured":"Hoffman RM, Meisner ALW, Arap W, Barry M, Shah SK, Zeliadt SB, Wiggins CL (2016) Trends in United States prostate cancer incidence rates by age and stage, 1995\u20132012. Cancer Epidemiol Biomar Prev 25:259\u2013263","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiol Biomar Prev"},{"key":"1480_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Andriole GL, et al., PLCO Project Team (2009) Mortality results from a randomized prostate cancer screening trial. New Engl J Med 360: 1310\u20131319","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMx090012"},{"key":"1480_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"43","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eururo.2019.02.009","volume":"76","author":"J Hugosson","year":"2019","unstructured":"Hugosson J, Roobol MJ, Mansson M, Tammela TLJ, Zappa M, Nelen V, Kwiatkowski M, Auvinen A (2019) A 16-yr follow-up of the European randomized study of screening for prostate cancer. Eur Urol 76:43\u201351","journal-title":"Eur Urol"},{"issue":"5","key":"1480_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e134","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eururo.2018.01.039","volume":"73","author":"N Mottet","year":"2018","unstructured":"Mottet N, Bellmunt J, Briers E et al (2018) EAU-ESTRO-ESUR-SIOG Guidelines on prostate cancer. Eur Urol 73(5):e134\u2013e135","journal-title":"Eur Urol"},{"key":"1480_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"374","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djp001","volume":"101","author":"G Draisma","year":"2009","unstructured":"Draisma G, Etzioni R, Tsodikov A, Mariotto A, Wever E, Gulati R et al (2009) Lead time and overdiagnosis in prostate-specific antigen screening: importance of methods and context. J Natl Cancer Inst 101:374\u2013383","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"key":"1480_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"831","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-158-11-201306040-00008","volume":"158","author":"R Etzioni","year":"2013","unstructured":"Etzioni R, Gulati R, Mallinger L, Mandelblatt J (2013) Influence of study features and methods on overdiagnosis estimates in breast and prostate cancer screening. Ann Intern Med 158:831","journal-title":"Ann Intern Med"},{"issue":"s2","key":"1480_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"106","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1464-410X.2003.4409x.x","volume":"92","author":"G Draisma","year":"2003","unstructured":"Draisma G, De Koning H (2003) MISCAN: estimating lead-time and over-detection by simulation. BJUrol Int 92(s2):106\u2013111","journal-title":"BJUrol Int"},{"key":"1480_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2846","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2257","volume":"25","author":"A Tsodikov","year":"2006","unstructured":"Tsodikov A, Szabo A, Wegelin J (2006) A population model of prostate cancer incidence. Stat Med 25:2846\u20132866","journal-title":"Stat Med"},{"key":"1480_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1007\/s10552-007-9083-8","volume":"19","author":"R Etzioni","year":"2008","unstructured":"Etzioni R, Tsodikov A, Mariotto A, Szabo A, Falcon S, Wegelin J, Feuer E (2008) Quantifying the role of PSA screening in the US prostate cancer mortality decline. Cancer Causes Control 19:175\u2013181","journal-title":"Cancer Causes Control"},{"issue":"2","key":"1480_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"djt67","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djt367","volume":"106","author":"R Gulati","year":"2014","unstructured":"Gulati R, Inoue LY, Gore JL, Katcher J, Etzioni R (2014) Individualized estimates of overdiagnosis in screen-detected prostate cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst 106(2):djt67","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"key":"1480_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1129","DOI":"10.1016\/S1470-2045(07)70380-7","volume":"8","author":"C Biesheuvel","year":"2007","unstructured":"Biesheuvel C, Barratt A, Howard K, Houssami N, Irwig L (2007) Effects of study methods and biases on estimates of invasive breast cancer over-detection with mammography screening: a systematic review. Lancet Oncol 8:1129\u20131138","journal-title":"Lancet Oncol"},{"key":"1480_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2027","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(14)60525-0","volume":"384","author":"FH Schr\u00f6der","year":"2014","unstructured":"Schr\u00f6der FH, Hugosson J, Roobol MJ, Tammela TLJ, Zappa M, Nelen V, ERSPC Investigators (2014) Screening and prostate cancer mortality: results of the European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) at 13 years of follow-up. Lancet 384:2027\u20132035","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"issue":"2","key":"1480_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwv342","volume":"184","author":"R Gulati","year":"2016","unstructured":"Gulati R, Feuer EJ, Etzioni R (2016) Conditions for valid empirical estimates of cancer overdiagnosis in randomized trials and population studies. Am J Epidemiol 184(2):140\u2013147","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"1480_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"10","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2007.00825.x","volume":"64","author":"D Telesca","year":"2008","unstructured":"Telesca D, Etzioni R, Gulati R (2008) Estimating lead time and overdiagnosis associated with PSA screening from prostate cancer incidence trends. Biometrics 64:10\u201319","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"17","key":"1480_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3102","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2010.09.034","volume":"46","author":"P Finne","year":"2010","unstructured":"Finne P, Fallah M, Hakama M, Ciatto S, Hugosson J, Koning HD, Auvinen A (2010) Lead-time in the European randomised study of screening for prostate cancer. Eur J Cancer 46(17):3102\u20133108","journal-title":"Eur J Cancer"},{"issue":"7","key":"1480_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1749","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.29538","volume":"137","author":"K Bell","year":"2015","unstructured":"Bell K, Del Mar C, Wright G, Dickinson J, Glasziou P (2015) Prevalence of incidental prostate cancer: a systematic review of autopsy studies. Int J Cancer 137(7):1749\u20131757","journal-title":"Int J Cancer"},{"key":"1480_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1038\/nmeth.2813","volume":"11","author":"M Krzywinski","year":"2014","unstructured":"Krzywinski M, Altman N (2014) Visualizing samples with box plots. Nat Methods 11:119\u2013120","journal-title":"Nat Methods"},{"key":"1480_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"279","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1015040231402","volume":"13","author":"A Auvinen","year":"2002","unstructured":"Auvinen A, M\u00e4\u00e4tt\u00e4nen L, Stenman U, Tammela T, Rannikko S, Aro J, Juusela H, Hakama M (2002) Lead-time in prostate cancer screening (Finland). Cancer Cause Control 13:279\u2013285","journal-title":"Cancer Cause Control"},{"issue":"13","key":"1480_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"981","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/94.13.981","volume":"94","author":"R Etzioni","year":"2002","unstructured":"Etzioni R, Penson DF, Legler JM, Di Tommaso D, Boer R, Gann PH, Feuer EJ (2002) Overdiagnosis due to prostate-specific antigen screening: lessons from US prostate cancer incidence trends. J Natl Cancer Inst 94(13):981\u2013990","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"key":"1480_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1367","DOI":"10.1002\/ijc.27340","volume":"131","author":"GHM Wu","year":"2012","unstructured":"Wu GHM, Auvinen A, Maattanen L, Tammela TLJ, Stenman UH, Hakama M et al (2012) Number of screens for over-detection as an indicator of absolute risk of overdiagnosis in prostate cancer screening. Int J Cancer 131:1367\u20131375","journal-title":"Int J Cancer"},{"key":"1480_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e022457","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2018-022457","volume":"9","author":"T Pathirana","year":"2019","unstructured":"Pathirana T, Hayen A, Doust J et al (2019) Lifetime risk of prostate cancer overdiagnosis in Australia: quantifying the risk of overdiagnosis associated with prostate cancer screening in using a novel lifetime risk approach. BMJ Open 9:e022457","journal-title":"BMJ Open"},{"key":"1480_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"384","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djz127","volume":"112","author":"R Gulati","year":"2020","unstructured":"Gulati R, Morgan TM, A\u2019mar T, Psutka SP, Tosoian JJ, Etzioni R (2020) Overdiagnosis and lives saved by reflex testing men with intermediate prostate-specific antigen levels. J Natl Cancer Inst 112:384\u2013390","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"issue":"5","key":"1480_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"936","DOI":"10.1097\/JU.0000000000000346","volume":"202","author":"R Gulati","year":"2019","unstructured":"Gulati R, Psutka SP, Etzioni R (2019) Personalized risks of overdiagnosis for screen-detected prostate cancer incorporating patient comorbidities: estimation and communication. J Urol 202(5):936\u2013943","journal-title":"J Urol"},{"issue":"12","key":"1480_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1297","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1008492013196","volume":"9","author":"M Zappa","year":"1998","unstructured":"Zappa M, Ciatto S, Bonardi R, Mazzotta A (1998) Overdiagnosis of prostate carcinoma by screening: an estimate based on the results of the florence screening pilot study. Ann Oncol 9(12):1297\u20131300","journal-title":"Ann Oncol"},{"issue":"13","key":"1480_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1320","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa0810084","volume":"360","author":"F Schr\u00f6der","year":"2009","unstructured":"Schr\u00f6der F, Hugosson J, Roobol M, Tammela T, Ciatto S, Nelen V et al (2009) Screening and prostate-cancer mortality in a randomized European study. New Engl J Med 360(13):1320\u20131328","journal-title":"New Engl J Med"},{"issue":"3","key":"1480_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2004.09.030","volume":"41","author":"S Ciatto","year":"2005","unstructured":"Ciatto S, Gervasi G, Bonardi R, Frullini P, Zendron P, Lombardi C, Zappa M (2005) Determining overdiagnosis by screening with DRE\/TRUS or PSA (Florence pilot studies, 1991\u20131994). Eur J Cancer 41(3):411\u2013415","journal-title":"Eur J Cancer"},{"issue":"18","key":"1480_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1914","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2018.3712","volume":"319","author":"JJ Fenton","year":"2018","unstructured":"Fenton JJ, Weyrich MS, Durbin S, Liu Y, Bang H, Meinikow J (2018) Prostate-specific antigen\u2013based screening for prostate cancer: evidence report and systematic review for the US preventive services task force. JAMA 319(18):1914\u20131931","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"issue":"s2","key":"1480_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1464-410X.2003.04407.x","volume":"92","author":"S Ciatto","year":"2004","unstructured":"Ciatto S, Zappa M, Villers A, Paez A, Otto SJ, Auvinen A (2004) Contamination by opportunistic screening in the European randomized study of prostate cancer screening. Br J Urol 92(s2):97\u2013100","journal-title":"Br J Urol"},{"key":"1480_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"14","DOI":"10.1016\/j.canep.2016.11.005","volume":"46","author":"J Nevalainen","year":"2017","unstructured":"Nevalainen J, Stenman U, Tammela TL, Roobol M, Carlsson S, Talala K, Auvinen A (2017) What explains the differences between centers in the European screening trial? A simulation study. Cancer Epidemiol 46:14\u201319","journal-title":"Cancer Epidemiol"},{"key":"1480_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"50","DOI":"10.1016\/j.juro.2017.01.048","volume":"198","author":"TP Kilpelainen","year":"2017","unstructured":"Kilpelainen TP, Pogodin-Hannolainen D, Kemppainen K, Talala K, Raitanen J, Taari K, Kujala P, Tammela TLJ, Auvinen A (2017) Estimate of opportunistic Prostate Specific Antigen testing in the finnish randomized study of screening for prostate cancer. J Urol 198:50\u201357","journal-title":"J Urol"},{"issue":"7","key":"1480_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1198","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6604973","volume":"100","author":"N Pashayan","year":"2009","unstructured":"Pashayan N, Duffy S, Pharoah P, Greenberg D, Donovan J, Martin R et al (2009) Mean sojourn time, overdiagnosis and reduction in advanced stage prostate cancer due to screening with PSA: implications of sojourn time on screening. Brit J Cancer 100(7):1198\u20131204","journal-title":"Brit J Cancer"}],"container-title":["Cancer Causes & Control"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10552-021-01480-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10552-021-01480-8\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10552-021-01480-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,5]],"date-time":"2021-10-05T23:23:45Z","timestamp":1633476225000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s10552-021-01480-8"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"11","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11]]}},"alternative-id":["1480"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10552-021-01480-8","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.21203\/rs.3.rs-341289\/v1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0957-5243","1573-7225"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0957-5243","type":"print"},{"value":"1573-7225","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"13 May 2020","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"14 July 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"27 July 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"All authors declare they have no conflict of interest, with the exception of Dr Auvinen who has received a lecture honorarium from Novartis.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"An ethics committee review was conducted by Tampere University Hospital (tracking no 95077; R10167). All men who participated in screening gave written consent. For the control arm, registry-based follow-up without contact with study participants does not require consent, according to the Finnish regulations.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethical approval"}}]}}