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The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used for variable screening and the multivariable Cox survival model for nomogram development. The accuracy and discriminative capability of this predictive model were assessed according to discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration. Clinical practical value was evaluated using decision curve analysis.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Body mass index, AF duration, sex, left atrial diameter, and the different responses after nifekalant administration were identified as AF recurrence-associated factors, all of which were selected for the nomogram. In the development and validation cohorts, the AUC for predicting 1-year AF-free survival was 0.863 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.801\u20130.926) and 0.855 (95% CI 0.782\u20130.929), respectively. The calibration curves showed satisfactory agreement between the actual AF-free survival and the nomogram prediction in the derivation and validation cohorts. In both groups, the prognostic score enabled stratifying the patients into different AF recurrence risk groups.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>This predictive nomogram can serve as a quantitative tool for estimating the 1-year AF recurrence risk for patients with persistent AF treated with nifekalant during the first RFCA.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10557-022-07353-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,22]],"date-time":"2022-06-22T08:14:49Z","timestamp":1655885689000},"page":"1117-1129","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":7,"title":["Development and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Model Predicting the Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence Risk for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation Patients Treated with Nifekalant During the First Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"37","author":[{"given":"Youzheng","family":"Dong","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zhenyu","family":"Zhai","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bo","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Shucai","family":"Xiao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Yang","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Anxue","family":"Hou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Pengtao","family":"Zou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Zirong","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jianhua","family":"Yu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0838-4531","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Juxiang","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,6,22]]},"reference":[{"issue":"8","key":"7353_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e66","DOI":"10.1016\/j.hrthm.2019.01.024","volume":"16","author":"CT January","year":"2019","unstructured":"Writing Group M, January CT, Wann LS, Calkins H, Chen LY, Cigarroa JE, et al. 2019 AHA\/ACC\/HRS focused update of the 2014 AHA\/ACC\/HRS guideline for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation: a Report of the American College of Cardiology\/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Practice Guidelines and the Heart Rhythm Society. 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