{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,18]],"date-time":"2026-07-18T09:24:16Z","timestamp":1784366656042,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]],"date-time":"2022-11-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668384000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]],"date-time":"2022-11-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1668384000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Dig Dis Sci"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,3]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s10620-022-07731-1","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]],"date-time":"2022-11-14T20:16:08Z","timestamp":1668456968000},"page":"770-777","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores Predict Patients Under Surveillance at Low Risk of Benefit and High Risk of Harm"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"68","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1200-7504","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chris","family":"Curran","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew","family":"Priest","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shouren","family":"Datta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ewan H.","family":"Forrest","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adrian J.","family":"Stanley","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stephen T.","family":"Barclay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]]},"reference":[{"key":"7731_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"EASL\u2013EORTC Clinical Practice Guidelines: Management of hepatocellular carcinoma. Eur J Cancer. 2012 Mar 1;48(5):599\u2013641.","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejca.2011.12.021"},{"issue":"2","key":"7731_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"723","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.29913","volume":"68","author":"JA Marrero","year":"2018","unstructured":"Marrero JA, Kulik LM, Sirlin CB, Zhu AX, Finn RS, Abecassis MM et al. Diagnosis, Staging, and Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: 2018 Practice Guidance by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. Hepatology. 2018;68:723\u2013750.","journal-title":"Hepatology."},{"issue":"4","key":"7731_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e1001624","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001624","volume":"11","author":"AG Singal","year":"2014","unstructured":"Singal AG, Pillai A, Tiro J. Early detection, curative treatment, and survival rates for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with cirrhosis: a meta-analysis. PLoS Med. 2014;11:e1001624.","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"issue":"4","key":"7731_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"947","DOI":"10.1111\/liv.14379","volume":"40","author":"VL Chen","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chen VL, Singal AG, Tapper EB, Parikh ND. Hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance, early detection and survival in a privately insured US cohort. Liver Int. 2020;40:947\u2013955.","journal-title":"Liver Int."},{"issue":"4","key":"7731_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"422","DOI":"10.1016\/S0002-9343(96)00197-0","volume":"101","author":"FP Sarasin","year":"1996","unstructured":"Sarasin FP, Giostra E, Hadengue A. Cost-effectiveness of screening for detection of small hepatocellular carcinoma in western patients with Child-Pugh class A cirrhosis. Am. J. Med. 1996;101:422\u2013434.","journal-title":"Am. J. Med."},{"key":"7731_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/jcm10132770","author":"MI Haq","year":"2021","unstructured":"Haq MI, Drake TM, Goh TL, Ahmed A, Forrest E, Barclay S et al. Effect of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance Programmes on Overall Survival in a Mixed Cirrhotic UK Population: A Prospective, Longitudinal Cohort Study. J Clin Med Res. 2021. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3390\/jcm10132770.","journal-title":"J Clin Med Res."},{"key":"7731_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2020.12.029","author":"P Jepsen","year":"2021","unstructured":"Jepsen P, West J. We need stronger evidence for (or against) hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. J. Hepatol. 2021. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhep.2020.12.029.","journal-title":"J. Hepatol."},{"issue":"4","key":"7731_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1196","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.28895","volume":"65","author":"O Atiq","year":"2017","unstructured":"Atiq O, Tiro J, Yopp AC, Muffler A, Marrero JA, Parikh ND et al. An assessment of benefits and harms of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with cirrhosis. Hepatology 2017;65:1196\u20131205.","journal-title":"Hepatology"},{"issue":"5","key":"7731_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1546","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.29315","volume":"66","author":"EJ Taylor","year":"2017","unstructured":"Taylor EJ, Jones RL, Guthrie JA, Rowe IA. Modeling the benefits and harms of surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma: information to support informed choices. Hepatology 2017;66:1546\u20131555.","journal-title":"Hepatology"},{"issue":"3","key":"7731_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1002\/lt.25398","volume":"25","author":"MA Konerman","year":"2019","unstructured":"Konerman MA, Verma A, Zhao B, Singal AG, Lok AS, Parikh ND. Frequency and outcomes of abnormal imaging in patients with cirrhosis enrolled in a hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance program. Liver Transpl. 2019;25:369\u2013379.","journal-title":"Liver Transpl."},{"issue":"2","key":"7731_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"443","DOI":"10.1053\/j.gastro.2018.04.034","volume":"155","author":"E Vilar-Gomez","year":"2018","unstructured":"Vilar-Gomez E, Calzadilla-Bertot L, Wai-Sun Wong V, Castellanos M, Aller-de la Fuente R, Metwally M et al. Fibrosis severity as a determinant of cause-specific mortality in patients with advanced nonalcoholic fatty liver disease: a Multi-National Cohort Study. Gastroenterology 2018;155:443-457.e17.","journal-title":"Gastroenterology"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"7731_CR12","first-page":"4","volume":"94","author":"L Bolondi","year":"1997","unstructured":"Bolondi L, Gaiani S, Casali A, Serra C, Piscaglia F. Screening for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: cost-effectiveness analysis. Radiol. Med. 1997;94:4\u20137.","journal-title":"Radiol. Med."},{"key":"7731_CR13","unstructured":"NICE. Cirrhosis in the over 16s - NICE Guideline 50 [Internet]. NICE; 2016 Jul. Report No.: NG50. Available from: https:\/\/www.nice.org.uk\/guidance\/ng50\/evidence\/full-guideline-2546537581"},{"issue":"6","key":"7731_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1368","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2020.07.025","volume":"73","author":"R Fan","year":"2020","unstructured":"Fan R, Papatheodoridis G, Sun J, Innes H, Toyoda H, Xie Q et al. aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis. J. Hepatol. 2020;73:1368\u20131378.","journal-title":"J. Hepatol."},{"issue":"22","key":"7731_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3485","DOI":"10.1002\/cncr.28832","volume":"120","author":"JA Flemming","year":"2014","unstructured":"Flemming JA, Yang JD, Vittinghoff E, Kim WR, Terrault NA. Risk prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis: the ADRESS-HCC risk model. Cancer 2014;120:3485\u20133493.","journal-title":"Cancer"},{"issue":"3","key":"7731_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"523","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2019.05.008","volume":"71","author":"GN Ioannou","year":"2019","unstructured":"Ioannou GN, Green P, Kerr KF, Berry K. Models estimating risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcohol or NAFLD-related cirrhosis for risk stratification. J. Hepatol. 2019;71:523\u2013533.","journal-title":"J. Hepatol."},{"issue":"9","key":"7731_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2015626","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.15626","volume":"3","author":"GN Ioannou","year":"2020","unstructured":"Ioannou GN, Tang W, Beste LA, Tincopa MA, Su GL, Van T et al. Assessment of a deep learning model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with Hepatitis C cirrhosis. JAMA Netw. Open. 2020;3:e2015626.","journal-title":"JAMA Netw. Open."},{"key":"7731_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2017.07.033","author":"SA Sharma","year":"2017","unstructured":"Sharma SA, Kowgier M, Hansen BE, Brouwer WP, Maan R, Wong D et al. Toronto HCC risk index: a validated scoring system to predict 10-year risk of HCC in patients with cirrhosis. J. Hepatol. 2017. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jhep.2017.07.033.","journal-title":"J. Hepatol."},{"issue":"6","key":"7731_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/ctg.2017.26","volume":"8","author":"N Goossens","year":"2017","unstructured":"Goossens N, Singal AG, King LY, Andersson KL, Fuchs BC, Besa C et al. Cost-effectiveness of risk score-stratified hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis. Clin. Transl. Gastroenterol. 2017;8:e101.","journal-title":"Clin. Transl. Gastroenterol."},{"issue":"5","key":"7731_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1088","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2018.07.024","volume":"69","author":"GN Ioannou","year":"2018","unstructured":"Ioannou GN, Green PK, Beste LA, Mun EJ, Kerr KF, Berry K. Development of models estimating the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after antiviral treatment for hepatitis C. J. Hepatol. 2018;69:1088\u20131098.","journal-title":"J. Hepatol."},{"issue":"5","key":"7731_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1675","DOI":"10.1002\/hep.23500","volume":"51","author":"P Jepsen","year":"2010","unstructured":"Jepsen P, Ott P, Andersen PK, S\u00f8rensen HT, Vilstrup H. Clinical course of alcoholic liver cirrhosis: a Danish population-based cohort study. Hepatology 2010;51:1675\u20131682.","journal-title":"Hepatology"},{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"7731_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"s66","DOI":"10.7861\/clinmedicine.18-2-s66","volume":"18","author":"A Roskilly","year":"2018","unstructured":"Roskilly A, Rowe IA. Surveillance for hepatocellular cancer. Clin. Med. 2018;18:s66\u2013s69.","journal-title":"Clin. Med."},{"issue":"2","key":"7731_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"333","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jhep.2014.03.037","volume":"61","author":"A Cucchetti","year":"2014","unstructured":"Cucchetti A, Trevisani F, Pecorelli A, Erroi V, Farinati F, Ciccarese F et al. Estimation of lead-time bias and its impact on the outcome of surveillance for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma. J. Hepatol. 2014;61:333\u2013341.","journal-title":"J. Hepatol."},{"issue":"7","key":"7731_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1166","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6604301","volume":"98","author":"J Thompson Coon","year":"2008","unstructured":"Thompson Coon J, Rogers G, Hewson P, Wright D, Anderson R, Jackson S et al. Surveillance of cirrhosis for hepatocellular carcinoma: a cost-utility analysis. Br. J. Cancer 2008;98:1166\u20131175.","journal-title":"Br. J. Cancer"},{"key":"7731_CR25","unstructured":"Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2016 [Internet]. [cited 2021 Apr 23]. Available from: https:\/\/www.gov.scot\/collections\/scottish-index-of-multiple-deprivation-2020\/"},{"issue":"2","key":"7731_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1258\/RSMSMJ.51.2.8","volume":"51","author":"SJ Hutchinson","year":"2006","unstructured":"Hutchinson SJ, Roy KM, Wadd S, Bird SM, Taylor A, Anderson E, Shaw L, Codere G, Goldberg DJ. Hepatitis C Virus infection in Scotland: epidemiological review and public health challenges. Scot. Med. J. 2006;51:8\u201315.","journal-title":"Scot. Med. J."},{"key":"7731_CR27","unstructured":"Giles L RE. Monitoring and Evaluating Scotland\u2019s Alcohol Strategy: Monitoring Report 2020 [Internet]. Public Health Scotland; 2020. Available from: https:\/\/www.careknowledge.com\/media\/47431\/mesas-monitoring-report-2020.pdf"},{"issue":"1","key":"7731_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"183","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cgh.2020.09.015","volume":"20","author":"NJ Kim","year":"2020","unstructured":"Kim NJ, Rozenberg-Ben-Dror K, Jacob DA, Rich N, Singal AG, Aby ES et al. Provider attitudes toward risk-based hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with cirrhosis in the United States. Clin. Gastroenterol. Hepatol. 2020;20:183\u2013193.","journal-title":"Clin. Gastroenterol. Hepatol."},{"issue":"4","key":"7731_CR29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"383","DOI":"10.1007\/s11901-019-00488-8","volume":"18","author":"J Petrasek","year":"2019","unstructured":"Petrasek J, Singal AG, Rich NE. Harms of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance. Curr. Hepatol. Rep. 2019;18:383\u2013389.","journal-title":"Curr. Hepatol. Rep."},{"key":"7731_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ctrv.2017.02.002","volume":"54","author":"NCA Vermeer","year":"2017","unstructured":"Vermeer NCA, Snijders HS, Holman FA, Liefers GJ, Bastiaannet E, van de Velde CJH et al. Colorectal cancer screening: systematic review of screen-related morbidity and mortality. Cancer Treat Rev. 2017;54:87\u201398.","journal-title":"Cancer Treat Rev."},{"key":"7731_CR31","unstructured":"ClinicalTrials.gov [Internet]. Bethesda (MD): National Library of Medicine (US). Identifier NCT03756051, Harms of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance, 2018 Nov 28 [cited 2022 Jun 21]. Available from: https:\/\/clinicaltrials.gov\/ct2\/show\/NCT03756051"},{"issue":"6","key":"7731_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e0156801","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0156801","volume":"11","author":"TG Bird","year":"2016","unstructured":"Bird TG, Dimitropoulou P, Turner RM, Jenks SJ, Cusack P, Hey S et al. Alpha-Fetoprotein detection of hepatocellular carcinoma leads to a standardized analysis of dynamic AFP to improve screening based detection. PLoS ONE 2016;11:e0156801.","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"issue":"3","key":"7731_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"503","DOI":"10.1111\/liv.13555","volume":"38","author":"C Zhao","year":"2018","unstructured":"Zhao C, Jin M, Le RH, Le MH, Chen VL, Jin M et al. Poor adherence to hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: a systematic review and meta-analysis of a complex issue. Liver Int. 2018;38:503\u2013514.","journal-title":"Liver Int."},{"issue":"12","key":"7731_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1275","DOI":"10.1111\/hepr.12672","volume":"46","author":"A Cucchetti","year":"2016","unstructured":"Cucchetti A, Garuti F, Pinna AD, Trevisani F, Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) Group. Length time bias in surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma and how to avoid it. Hepatol .Res. 2016;46:1275\u201380.","journal-title":"Hepatol. Res."}],"container-title":["Digestive Diseases and Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10620-022-07731-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10620-022-07731-1\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10620-022-07731-1.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,13]],"date-time":"2023-03-13T05:15:11Z","timestamp":1678684511000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s10620-022-07731-1"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]]},"references-count":34,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,3]]}},"alternative-id":["7731"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10620-022-07731-1","relation":{},"ISSN":["0163-2116","1573-2568"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0163-2116","type":"print"},{"value":"1573-2568","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,11,14]]},"assertion":[{"value":"14 April 2022","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"11 October 2022","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"14 November 2022","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"Chris Curran, Matthew Priest, Shouren Datta, Adrian Stanley, and Ewan Forrest have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"This article does not contain any studies with animal subjects.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Research involving human participants or animals"}},{"value":"Caldicott approval was sought from the health board and was granted to ensure appropriate handling of patient data. Additional ethical permission for this retrospective analysis of existing data was not required. The study was performed in accordance with the ethical standards as laid down in the 1964 Declaration of Helsinki.","order":4,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethical approval"}},{"value":"Not applicable.","order":5,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent to participate"}},{"value":"All authors have consented to the publication of this manuscript.","order":6,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Consent to publication"}}]}}