{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T15:26:19Z","timestamp":1772119579455,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,1]],"date-time":"2021-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1622505600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,4]],"date-time":"2021-07-04T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1625356800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":33,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004047","name":"Karolinska Institute","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004047","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Eur J Epidemiol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Within Europe, death rates due to COVID-19 vary greatly, with some countries being severely hit while others to date are almost unaffected. This has created a heated debate in particular regarding how effective the different measures applied by the governments are in limiting the spread of the disease and ultimately deaths. It would be of considerable interest to pinpoint the factors that determine a country\u2019s susceptibility to a pandemic such as COVID-19. Here we present data demonstrating that mortality due to COVID-19 in a given country could have been predicted to some extent even before the pandemic hit Europe, simply by looking at longitudinal variability of death rates in the years preceding the current outbreak. The variability in death rates during the winter influenza seasons of 2015\u20132019 correlates to excess mortality in 2020 during the COVID-19 outbreak (Spearman\u2019s \u03c1\u2009=\u20090.68, 95\u2009% CI\u2009=\u20090.40\u20130.84,\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u00a0&lt;\u20090.001). In contrast, there was no correlation with age, population density, latitude, GNP, governmental health spending, number of intensive care beds, degree of urbanization, or rates of influenza vaccination. These data suggest an intrinsic susceptibility in certain countries to excess mortality associated with viral respiratory diseases including COVID-19.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654-021-00777-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,3]],"date-time":"2021-07-03T22:02:37Z","timestamp":1625349757000},"page":"599-603","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Longitudinal variability in mortality predicts COVID-19 deaths"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"36","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0174-5210","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jon O.","family":"Lundberg","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7118-1249","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hugo","family":"Zeberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,4]]},"reference":[{"key":"777_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"793","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(80)91293-3","volume":"1","author":"HE Tillett","year":"1980","unstructured":"Tillett HE, Smith JW, Clifford RE. Excess morbidity and mortality associated with influenza in England and Wales. Lancet. 1980;1:793\u20135.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"777_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1285","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)33293-2","volume":"391","author":"AD Iuliano","year":"2018","unstructured":"Iuliano AD, et al. Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study. Lancet. 2018;391:1285\u2013300.","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"777_CR3","unstructured":"European Mortality Monitoring. https:\/\/www.euromomo.eu\/graphs-and-maps. Accessed 16 Nov 2020."},{"key":"777_CR4","unstructured":"Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. https:\/\/github.com\/CSSEGISandData\/COVID-19. Accessed 16 Nov 2020."},{"key":"777_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"547","DOI":"10.2307\/2983331","volume":"159","author":"CP Farrington","year":"1996","unstructured":"Farrington CP, Andrews NJ, Beale AD, Catchpole MA. A Statistical Algorithm for the Early Detection of Outbreaks of Infectious Disease. J Roy Stat Soc Series A (Statistics in Society). 1996;159:547\u201363.","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)"},{"key":"777_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Zar JH. Spearman Rank Correlation: Overview. Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. 2005 https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/9781118445112.stat05964.","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118445112.stat05964"},{"key":"777_CR7","unstructured":"European Mortality Monitoring. https:\/\/www.euromomo.eu\/how-it-works\/methods\/."},{"key":"777_CR8","unstructured":"The World Bank. Data. https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator. Accessed 16 Nov 2020."},{"key":"777_CR9","unstructured":"World Health Organization. The Global Health Observatory. https:\/\/www.who.int\/data\/gho. Accessed 16 Nov 2020."},{"key":"777_CR10","unstructured":"World Health Organization. European Health Information Gateway. https:\/\/gateway.euro.who.int\/en\/indicators\/hfa_478-5060-acute-care-hospital-beds-per-100-000. Accessed 19 Apr 2021."},{"key":"777_CR11","unstructured":"Latitude and Longitude Finder. https:\/\/www.latlong.net. Accessed 16 Nov 2020."},{"key":"777_CR12","unstructured":"European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Vaccination coverage. https:\/\/www.ecdc.europa.eu\/en\/all-topics-z\/immunisation-and-vaccines\/vaccination-coverage. Accessed 16 Nov 2020."},{"key":"777_CR13","unstructured":"MapChart: E. https:\/\/mapchart.net\/europe.html. Accessed 16 Nov 2020."},{"key":"777_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e2011834","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2020.11834","volume":"3","author":"MM Sajadi","year":"2020","unstructured":"Sajadi MM, Habibzadeh P, Vintzileos A, Shokouhi S, Miralles-Wilhelm F, Amoroso A. Temperature, humidity, and latitude analysis to estimate potential spread and seasonality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). JAMA Network Open. 2020;3:e2011834.","journal-title":"JAMA Network Open"},{"key":"777_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1016\/j.puhe.2020.06.056","volume":"185","author":"I Bray","year":"2020","unstructured":"Bray I, Gibson A, White J. Coronavirus disease 2019 mortality: a multivariate ecological analysisiin relation to ethnicity, population density, obesity, deprivation and pollution. Public Health. 2020;185:261\u20133.","journal-title":"Public Health"},{"key":"777_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1522","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa2020283","volume":"383","author":"D Ellinghaus","year":"2020","unstructured":"Ellinghaus D, Degenhardt F, et al. Genomewide association study of severe COVID-19 with respiratory failure. N Engl J Med. 2020;383:1522\u201334.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"777_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"610","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2818-3","volume":"587","author":"H Zeberg","year":"2020","unstructured":"Zeberg H, P\u00e4\u00e4bo S. The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals. Nature. 2020;587:610\u20132.","journal-title":"Nature"}],"container-title":["European Journal of Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10654-021-00777-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10654-021-00777-x\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s10654-021-00777-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,3]],"date-time":"2021-08-03T23:31:33Z","timestamp":1628033493000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s10654-021-00777-x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,6]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,6]]}},"alternative-id":["777"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10654-021-00777-x","relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.1101\/2020.12.25.20248853","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0393-2990","1573-7284"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0393-2990","type":"print"},{"value":"1573-7284","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"9 March 2021","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"15 June 2021","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"4 July 2021","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors declare no conflicts of interest or competing interests.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}}]}}