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A significant mangrove dieback in Boambee Creek Estuary (2021) was initially linked to chemical contamination from nearby Coffs Harbour Airport. This study uses a forensic geospatial reconstruction to test the validity of this toxicity hypothesis against a physical-hydrological alternative. Scaling up from localised, site-specific field observations, we used multi-sensor satellite telemetry (Sentinel-2), LiDAR-based geomorphic modelling and ERA5 climatological reanalysis to assess the ecosystem at the landscape scale. The investigation pinpoints a statistically extreme hailstorm on 20 October 2021 as the trigger event, representing a\u2009&gt;\u20091-in-100-year anomaly (\n                    <jats:italic>Z<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20094.10\u03c3). Time-series diagnostics confirm an immediate structural collapse (\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009&lt;\u20090.001) coinciding with the storm, ruling out the signature of gradual chemical ageing. Mortality followed a Death Curve, where the likelihood of death neared 100% at elevations below 1.5\u00a0m AHD (\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009&lt;\u200910\n                    <jats:sup>\u20138<\/jats:sup>\n                    ) within stagnant topographic basins (&lt;\u20092\u00b0 slope). Hydrological routing shows that the main runoff from the airport flows directly into the remaining forest, creating a Runoff Paradox that statistically discredits the chemical vector hypothesis. We conclude that the dieback is best explained by a compound disturbance framework, primarily triggered by a hydrological trap. Sudden physical defoliation halted canopy transpiration, causing rapid soil anoxia and root drowning in geomorphically unstable basins. Secondary chemical stressors may inhibit long-term recovery. Future management should focus on restoring hydrological connectivity rather than chemical remediation. This study highlights the vital need to incorporate landscape-scale multi-sensor remote sensing (Optical, Radar and LiDAR) for validating localised field sampling and accurately diagnosing heterogeneous dieback events worldwide.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10661-026-15666-7","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,7]],"date-time":"2026-07-07T19:07:46Z","timestamp":1783451266000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Multi-sensor geospatial modelling to address complex mangrove dieback: misattribution of chemical stressors versus physical impact"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"198","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-5824-3603","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jade","family":"Farrugia","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"15666_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1071\/MF23250","author":"K Benkendorff","year":"2025","unstructured":"Benkendorff, K., Briggs, R., Caraco, S., Shilling, J., Islami, M., Davey, A., Boland-Hoskins, E., & Dowell, A. 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