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These competing possibilities were examined in the Canan\u00e9ia-Iguape Coastal System, southeastern Brazil, by combining ERA5 2\u00a0m air temperature with MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and leaf area index (LAI). Air-temperature trends were assessed for 1979\u20132019 with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen\u2019s slope. Temperature-vegetation associations were calculated for 2003\u20132019 from mangrove-wide means and from individual grid cells at annual, monthly, and fixed calendar-quarter scales. Mean annual air temperature increased by about 0.02\u00a0\u00b0C\u00a0year\u207b\n                    <jats:sup>1<\/jats:sup>\n                    ; the highest quarter-scale rate occurred in July\u2013September (0.03\u00a0\u00b0C\u00a0year\u207b\n                    <jats:sup>1<\/jats:sup>\n                    ). Annual temperature correlated positively with NDVI (\n                    <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.61,\n                    <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.38,\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.009) and EVI (\n                    <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.55,\n                    <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.30,\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.022), whereas the LAI relationship was not significant (\n                    <jats:italic>r<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.27,\n                    <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                    <jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.07,\n                    <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20090.304). The sign of the association changed within the year: NDVI and EVI were negative in July\u2013September, while positive EVI and LAI relationships occurred in October-December. Significant grid-cell relationships occupied limited and discontinuous areas. The temperature record shows regional warming, whereas canopy associations vary among metrics, periods, and locations. Given the bivariate design and coarse ERA5 grid, these associations should not be interpreted as causal or as responses to temperature alone.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10661-026-16005-6","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T01:15:53Z","timestamp":1791508553000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Assessing mangrove sensitivity to thermal variations through a satellite-based analysis on the southern S\u00e3o Paulo coast, Brazil"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"198","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0311-2369","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jakeline","family":"Baratto","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paulo Miguel","family":"de Bodas Terassi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"N\u00e1dia Gilma Beserra","family":"de Lima","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emerson","family":"Galvani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]]},"reference":[{"issue":"1","key":"16005_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1007\/s40641-015-0002-x","volume":"1","author":"DM Alongi","year":"2015","unstructured":"Alongi, D. 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