{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]],"date-time":"2026-05-14T08:12:34Z","timestamp":1778746354570,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]],"date-time":"2026-05-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778716800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]],"date-time":"2026-05-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778716800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development","award":["531 002020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["531 002020"]}]},{"name":"Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development","award":["531 002020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["531 002020"]}]},{"name":"Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development","award":["531 002020"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["531 002020"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Familial Cancer"],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    To optimize surveillance in individuals with a family history (FH) of colorectal cancer (CRC), knowledge on the incidence rate of non-advanced adenomas (nAAs) and their progression rate to advanced neoplasia (AN) is crucial. We jointly estimated personalized adenoma incidence and progression rates using a novel statistical approach. We used data of individuals with \u2265\u20091 first-degree relative with CRC who underwent \u2009\u2265\u20092 colonoscopies (\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u2009876 individuals;\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20092384 colonoscopies). Interval-censored data on timing and yield (no adenomas\/nAA\/AN) of each colonoscopy were available. nAA incidence and progression time from nAA to AN were estimated using a Bayesian progressive three-state model. Over a median follow-up of 6 years (interquartile range 5\u20136), 60 (6.8%) individuals developed AN (2 CRC, 58 AA) while 246 (28.1%) developed a nAA. The 5-year risk of developing nAA from baseline was estimated to be 29% (95% Crl: 21\u201339%). This risk was significantly associated with age and FH type. Estimated risk of progressing to AN within 5 years since nAA onset was 29% (95% Crl: 21\u201339%), and was significantly associated with having advanced adenomas at baseline. This resulted in a 5-year risk of transitioning from \u2018no adenomas\u2019 to AN of 7% (95% Crl: 5\u20139%). We showed that only 7% of individuals develop AN (primarily AAs) within the current 5-year colonoscopy surveillance interval. Future studies should evaluate whether this relatively low risk justifies slight extension of the surveillance interval or the use of fecal testing to guide colonoscopy timing. Furthermore, surveillance intensity could potentially be tailored based on age and FH.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s10689-026-00565-0","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]],"date-time":"2026-05-14T07:28:44Z","timestamp":1778743724000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Personalized risk estimates of advanced neoplasia development in individuals with a family history of colorectal cancer"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6151-3382","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marjolein J. 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Karen Canfell is also co\u2013principal investigator on a major implementation program, Elimination of Cervical Cancer in the Western Pacific, which has received support from the Minderoo Foundation and equipment donations from Cepheid Inc. Veerle M. H. Coup\u00e9 has several patents pending and\/or issued. Evelien Dekker has endoscopic equipment on loan from FujiFilm and has received a research grant from FujiFilm. Evelien Dekker has also received honoraria for consultancy from Olympus, Fujifilm, Ambu, InterVenn, Norgine, and Exact Sciences, and speakers\u2019 fees from Olympus, GI Supply, Norgine, IPSEN\/Mayoly, and FujiFilm. The remaining authors disclose no conflicts.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Conflict of interest"}},{"value":"This study involves human participants and was approved by the medical ethics committee at Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands (reference no. GZB\/GZ 2.205.779). Written informed consent was obtained from each patient included in the study. Participants gave informed consent to participate in the study before taking part.","order":3,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Ethical approval"}}],"article-number":"56"}}