{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,29]],"date-time":"2026-05-29T11:02:37Z","timestamp":1780052557340,"version":"3.53.1"},"reference-count":85,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,8]],"date-time":"2023-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1691452800000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,8]],"date-time":"2023-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1691452800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000923","name":"Australian Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DE150101347"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DE150101347"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000923","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PGSD3-502271-2017"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PGSD3-502271-2017"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Environment & Climate Change Canada"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Nat Hazards"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>To quantify the hazard or risks associated with severe convective wind gusts, it is necessary to have a reliable and spatially complete climatology of these events. The coupling of observational and global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data over the period 2005\u20132015 is used here to facilitate the development of a spatially complete convective wind gust climatology for Australia. This is done through the development of Bayesian Hierarchical models that use both weather station-based wind gust observations and seasonally averaged severe weather indices (SWI), calculated using reanalysis data, to estimate seasonal gust frequencies across the country while correcting for observational biases specifically, the sparse observational network to record events. Different SWI combinations were found to explain event counts for different seasons. For example, combinations of Lifted Index and low level wind shear were found to generate the best results for autumn and winter. While for spring and summer, the composite Microburst Index and the combination of most unstable CAPE and 0\u20131\u00a0km wind shear were found to be most successful. Results from these models showed a minimum in event counts during the winter months, with events that do occur mainly doing so along the southwest coast of Western Australia or along the coasts of Tasmania and Victoria. Summer is shown to have the largest event counts across the country, with the largest number of gusts occurring in northern Western Australia extending east into the Northern Territory with another maximum over northeast New South Wales. Similar trends were found with an extended application of the models to the period 1979\u20132015 when utilizing only reanalysis data as input. This implementation of the models highlights the versatility of the Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach and its ability, when trained, to be used in the absence of observations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-023-06078-8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,8]],"date-time":"2023-08-08T11:02:27Z","timestamp":1691492547000},"page":"2037-2067","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["An Australian convective wind gust climatology using Bayesian hierarchical modelling"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"118","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3692-1675","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alessio C.","family":"Spassiani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew S.","family":"Mason","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vincent Y. S.","family":"Cheng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"6078_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"81","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.3667","volume":"34","author":"JT Allen","year":"2014","unstructured":"Allen JT, Karoly DJ (2014) A climatology of Australian severe thunderstorm environments 1979\u20132011: inter-annual variability and ENSO influence. Int J Climatol 34:81\u201397","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"key":"6078_CR2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.22499\/2.6103.001","volume":"61","author":"JT Allen","year":"2011","unstructured":"Allen JT, Karoly DJ, Mills GA (2011) A severe thunderstorm climatology for Australia and associated thunderstorm environments. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 61:143\u2013158","journal-title":"Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J"},{"key":"6078_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"571","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF997.1","volume":"22","author":"CJ Anderson","year":"2007","unstructured":"Anderson CJ, Wikle CK, Zhou Q, Royle JA (2007) Population influences on Tornado reports in the United States. Weather Forecast 22:571\u2013579","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"215","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2007.05.020","volume":"208","author":"GB Arhonditsis","year":"2007","unstructured":"Arhonditsis GB, Qian SS, Stow CA, Lamon EC, Reckhow KH (2007) Eutrophication risk assessment using Bayesian calibration of process-based models: application to a mesotrophic lake. Ecol Modell 208:215\u2013229","journal-title":"Ecol Modell"},{"key":"6078_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2007.07.004","volume":"73","author":"GB Arhonditsis","year":"2008","unstructured":"Arhonditsis GB, Papantou D, Zhang W, Perhar G, Massos E, Shi M (2008a) Bayesian calibration of mechanistic aquatic biogeochemical models and benefits for environmental management. J Mar Syst 73:8\u201330","journal-title":"J Mar Syst"},{"key":"6078_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1029\/2007WR005862","volume":"44","author":"GB Arhonditsis","year":"2008","unstructured":"Arhonditsis GB, Perhar G, Zhang W, Massos E, Shi M, Das A (2008b) Addressing equifinality and uncertainty in eutrophication models. Water Resour Res 44:1\u201319","journal-title":"Water Resour Res"},{"key":"6078_CR7","unstructured":"Standards Australia\/standard New Zealand AS\/NZS 1170.2:2021 (2021) Structural design actions, Part 2. Wind actions, Sydney"},{"key":"6078_CR8","volume-title":"Introduction to Probability and mathematical statistics","author":"LJ Bain","year":"1992","unstructured":"Bain LJ, Engelhardt M (1992) Introduction to Probability and mathematical statistics, 2nd edn. Duxbury Press, California","edition":"2"},{"key":"6078_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"937","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-17-0056.1","volume":"57","author":"KM Bedka","year":"2018","unstructured":"Bedka KM, Allen JT, Punge HJ, Kunz M, Simanovic D (2018) A long-term overshooting convective cloud-top detection database over Australia derived from MTSAT Japanese advanced meteorological imager observations. J Appl Meteor Climatol 57:937\u2013995","journal-title":"J Appl Meteor Climatol"},{"key":"6078_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1381","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.864","volume":"137","author":"P Berrisford","year":"2011","unstructured":"Berrisford P, K\u00e5llberg P, Kobayashi S, Dee D, Uppala S, Simmons AJ, Poli P, Sato H (2011) Atmospheric conservation properties in ERA-Interim. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1381\u20131399","journal-title":"Q J R Meteorol Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR11","first-page":"33","volume":"82","author":"J Besag","year":"1995","unstructured":"Besag J, Kooperberg CL (1995) On conditional and intrinsic autoregressions. Biometrika 82:33\u2013746","journal-title":"Biometrika"},{"key":"6078_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00116466","volume":"43","author":"J Besag","year":"1991","unstructured":"Besag J, York J, Mollie A (1991) Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics (with discussion). Ann Inst Statist Math 43:1\u201359","journal-title":"Ann Inst Statist Math"},{"key":"6078_CR13","first-page":"28","volume":"4","author":"R Blong","year":"2005","unstructured":"Blong R (2005) Natural hazards risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Issues Risk Sci 4:28","journal-title":"Issues Risk Sci"},{"issue":"8","key":"6078_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1625","DOI":"10.1175\/BAMS-D-15-00309.1","volume":"98","author":"WG Blumberg","year":"2017","unstructured":"Blumberg WG, Halbert KT, Supinie TA, Marsh PT, Thompson RL, Hart JA (2017) SHARPpy: an open-source sounding analysis toolkit for the atmospheric sciences. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 98(8):1625\u20131636","journal-title":"Bull Amer Meteor Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.1080\/10618600.1998.10474787","volume":"7","author":"SP Brooks","year":"1998","unstructured":"Brooks SP, Gelman A (1998) General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. J Comput Graph Stat 7:434\u2013455","journal-title":"J Comput Graph Stat"},{"key":"6078_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"626","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2003)018<0626:CEOLDT>2.0.CO;2","volume":"18","author":"HE Brooks","year":"2003","unstructured":"Brooks HE, Doswell CA III, Kay MP (2003a) Climatological estimates of local daily Tornado probability for the United States. Weather Forecast 18:626\u2013640","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"73","DOI":"10.1016\/S0169-8095(03)00045-0","volume":"67\u201368","author":"HE Brooks","year":"2003","unstructured":"Brooks HE, Lee JW, Craven JP (2003b) The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data. Atmos Res 67\u201368:73\u201379","journal-title":"Atmos Res"},{"issue":"16","key":"6078_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2021JD034633","DOI":"10.1029\/2021JD034633","volume":"126","author":"A Brown","year":"2021","unstructured":"Brown A, Dowdy A (2021b) Severe convective wind environments and future projected changes in Australia. J Geophys Res Atmos 126(16):e2021JD034633","journal-title":"J Geophys Res Atmos"},{"issue":"1","key":"6078_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"30","DOI":"10.1071\/ES19052","volume":"71","author":"A Brown","year":"2021","unstructured":"Brown A, Dowdy A (2021a) Severe convection-related winds in Australia and their associated environments. J South Hemisphere Earth Syst Sci 71(1):30\u201352","journal-title":"J South Hemisphere Earth Syst Sci"},{"key":"6078_CR20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104407","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jweia.2020.104407","volume":"207","author":"G Chen","year":"2020","unstructured":"Chen G, Lombardo FT (2020) An automated classification method of thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm wind data based on a convolutional neural network. J Wind Eng Ind Aerod 207:104407","journal-title":"J Wind Eng Ind Aerod"},{"key":"6078_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1007\/s11284-009-0630-5","volume":"25","author":"V Cheng","year":"2010","unstructured":"Cheng V, Arhonditsis GB, Brett MT (2010) A revaluation of lake-phosphorus loading models using a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Ecol Res 25:59\u201376","journal-title":"Ecol Res"},{"key":"6078_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"9415","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-13-00093.1","volume":"26","author":"VYS Cheng","year":"2013","unstructured":"Cheng VYS, Arhonditsis GG, Sills DML, Auld H, Shephard MW, Gough WA, Klaassen J (2013) Probability of Tornado occurrence across Canada. J Clim 26:9415\u20139428","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"6078_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"6599","DOI":"10.1038\/ncomms7599","volume":"6","author":"VYS Cheng","year":"2015","unstructured":"Cheng VYS, Arhonditsis GB, Sills DML, Gough WA, Auld H (2015) A Bayesian modelling framework for tornado occurrences in North America. Nat Commun 6:6599","journal-title":"Nat Commun"},{"key":"6078_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1899","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-15-0404.1","volume":"29","author":"VYS Cheng","year":"2016","unstructured":"Cheng VYS, Arhonditsis GB, Sills DML, Gough WA, Auld H (2016) Predicting the climatology of Tornado occurrences in North America with a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework. J Clim 29:1899\u20131917","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"6078_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1461-0248.2004.00702.x","volume":"8","author":"JS Clark","year":"2005","unstructured":"Clark JS (2005) Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians. Ecol Lett 8:59\u201376","journal-title":"Ecol Lett"},{"issue":"7","key":"6078_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1593","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(2001)129<1593:SOAPDU>2.0.CO;2","volume":"129","author":"MC Coniglio","year":"2001","unstructured":"Coniglio MC, Stensrud DJ (2001) Simulation of a progressive derecho using composite initial conditions. Mon Weather Rev 129(7):1593\u20131616","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"key":"6078_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.828","volume":"137","author":"DP Dee","year":"2011","unstructured":"Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553\u2013597","journal-title":"Q J R Meteorol Soc"},{"issue":"50","key":"6078_CR28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1175\/0065-9401-28.50.1","volume":"28","author":"CA Doswell III","year":"2001","unstructured":"Doswell CA III (2001) Severe convective storms\u2014an overview. Meteorol Monogr 28(50):1\u201326","journal-title":"Meteorol Monogr"},{"issue":"3","key":"6078_CR29","first-page":"1","volume":"1","author":"CA Doswell III","year":"2006","unstructured":"Doswell CA III, Schultz DM (2006) On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms. Electronic J Sev Storms Meteor 1(3):1\u201322","journal-title":"Electronic J Sev Storms Meteor"},{"key":"6078_CR30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"577","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF866.1","volume":"20","author":"CA Doswell III","year":"2005","unstructured":"Doswell CA III, Brooks HE, Kay MP (2005) Climatological estimates of daily local nontornadic severe thunder probability for the United States. Weather Forecast 20:577\u2013595","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR31","first-page":"9","volume":"6","author":"AJ Dowdy","year":"2014","unstructured":"Dowdy AJ, Kuleshov Y (2014) Climatology of lightning activity in Australia: spatial and seasonal variability. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 6:9\u201314","journal-title":"Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J"},{"key":"6078_CR32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1403","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-12-00192.1","volume":"26","author":"AJ Dowdy","year":"2013","unstructured":"Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B, Wang Y (2013) Changes in the risk of extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia. J Clim 26:1403\u20131417","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"key":"6078_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2020JD033101","DOI":"10.1029\/2020JD033101","volume":"125","author":"AJ Dowdy","year":"2020","unstructured":"Dowdy AJ, Soderholm J, Brook J, Brown A, McGowan H (2020) Quantifying hail and lightning risk factors using long-term observations around Australia. J Geophys Res Atmos 125:2020JD033101","journal-title":"J Geophys Res Atmos"},{"key":"6078_CR34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-13-00014.1","volume":"142","author":"JB Elsner","year":"2014","unstructured":"Elsner JB, Widen HM (2014) Predicting spring tornado activity in the central Great Plains by 1 March. Mon Weather Rev 142:259\u2013267","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"key":"6078_CR35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"259","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0166895","volume":"11","author":"JB Elsner","year":"2016","unstructured":"Elsner JB, Jagger TH, Fricker T (2016) Statistical models for Tornado climatology: long and short-term views. PLoS ONE 11:259\u2013267","journal-title":"PLoS ONE"},{"key":"6078_CR36","first-page":"4","volume":"2","author":"D Etkin","year":"1994","unstructured":"Etkin D, Leduc M (1994) A non-tornadic severe storm climatology of southern Ontario adjusted for population bias: some surprising results. Can Meteor Ocean Soc Bull 2:4\u20138","journal-title":"Can Meteor Ocean Soc Bull"},{"issue":"3","key":"6078_CR37","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"329","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2001)016<0329:EODEUP>2.0.CO;2","volume":"16","author":"JS Evans","year":"2001","unstructured":"Evans JS, Doswell CA (2001) Examination of derecho environments using proximity soundings. Weather Forecast 16(3):329\u2013342","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"issue":"20","key":"6078_CR38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3144","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(1989)046<3144:EOVWSO>2.0.CO;2","volume":"46","author":"RG Fovell","year":"1989","unstructured":"Fovell RG, Ogura Y (1989) Effect of vertical wind shear on numerically simulated multicell storm structure. J Atmos Sci 46(20):3144\u20133176","journal-title":"J Atmos Sci"},{"key":"6078_CR39","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"528","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0477-37.10.528","volume":"37","author":"JG Galway","year":"1956","unstructured":"Galway JG (1956) The lifted index as a predictor of latent instability. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 37:528\u2013529","journal-title":"Bull Amer Meteor Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR40","first-page":"46","volume":"8","author":"B Geerts","year":"1995","unstructured":"Geerts B, Noke-Raico M (1995) Tornadoes in Australia: do we really know? Bull Aust Meteorol Oceanogr Soc 8:46\u201351","journal-title":"Bull Aust Meteorol Oceanogr Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR41","first-page":"457","volume":"7","author":"A Gelman","year":"1992","unstructured":"Gelman A, Rubin DB (1992) Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Stat Sci 7:457\u2013472","journal-title":"Stat Sci"},{"key":"6078_CR42","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"943","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1998)126<0943:TIOMDO>2.0.CO;2","volume":"126","author":"MS Gilmore","year":"1998","unstructured":"Gilmore MS, Wicker LJ (1998) The influence of midtroposheric dryness on supercell morphology and evolution. Mon Weather Rev 126:943\u2013956","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"key":"6078_CR43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01098382","volume":"25","author":"D Griffiths","year":"1993","unstructured":"Griffiths D, Colquhoun J, Batt K, Casinader T (1993) Severe thunderstorms in new south wales: climatology and means of assessing the impact of climate change. Clim Change 25:369\u2013388","journal-title":"Clim Change"},{"key":"6078_CR44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2010.11.011","volume":"100","author":"S Grunwald","year":"2011","unstructured":"Grunwald S, Brooks HE (2011) Relationship between sounding derived parameters and the strength of tornadoes in Europe and the USA from reanalysis data. Atmos Res 100:479\u2013488","journal-title":"Atmos Res"},{"key":"6078_CR45","unstructured":"Hales JE (1993) Biases in the severe thunderstorm data base: ramifications and solutions. In: preprints, 13th conference on weather forecasting and analysis. Amer Meteorol Soc, Vienna, VA, pp 504\u2013507"},{"key":"6078_CR46","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2002)017<0705:TCSTOC>2.0.CO;2","volume":"17","author":"BN Hanstrum","year":"2002","unstructured":"Hanstrum BN, Mills GA, Watson A, Monteverdi JP, Doswell CA III (2002) The cool-season tornadoes of California and Southern Australia. Weather Forecast 17:705\u2013722","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR47","unstructured":"Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, Hor\u00e1nyi A, Mu\u00f1oz Sabater, J, Nicolas J, Radu R, Schepers D, Simmons A, Soci C, Dee D (2019). Global reanalysis: goodbye era interim, hello era5, ECMWF Newsletter 159 (European centre for medium range weather forecasts)"},{"key":"6078_CR48","unstructured":"H\u00f8jstrup J, Courtney MS, Christensen CJ, Sanderhoff P (1993). Full scale measurements in wind-turbine arrays. N\u00f8rrek\u00e6r Enge II. CEC\/JOULE. Ris\u00f8-I-684."},{"issue":"10","key":"6078_CR49","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3125","DOI":"10.1175\/MWR-D-10-05036.1","volume":"139","author":"AL Houston","year":"2011","unstructured":"Houston AL, Wilhelmson RB (2011) The dependence of storm longevity on the pattern of deep convection initiation in a low-shear environment. Mon Weather Rev 139(10):3125\u20133138","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"key":"6078_CR50","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1997","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1985)113<1997:CONSTE>2.0.CO;2","volume":"113","author":"DL Kelly","year":"1985","unstructured":"Kelly DL, Schaefer JT, Doswell CA III (1985) Climatology of nontornadic severe thunderstorm events in the United States. Mon Weather Rev 113:1997\u20132014","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"key":"6078_CR51","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"939","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(1997)012<0939:OTAOPB>2.0.CO;2","volume":"12","author":"P King","year":"1997","unstructured":"King P (1997) On the absence of population bias in the tornado climatology of Southwestern Ontario. Weather Forecast 12:939\u2013946","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR52","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"795","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(2003)018<0795:LBISOA>2.0.CO;2","volume":"18","author":"PWS King","year":"2003","unstructured":"King PWS, Leduc MJ, Sills DML, Donaldson NR, Hudak DR, Joe P, Murphy BP (2003) Lake breezes in Southern Ontario and their relation to Tornado climatology. Weather Forecast 18:795\u2013807","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR53","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"369","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.fl.19.010187.002101","volume":"19","author":"JB Klemp","year":"1987","unstructured":"Klemp JB (1987) Dynamics of tornadic thunderstorms. Annu Rev Fluid Mech 19:369\u2013402","journal-title":"Annu Rev Fluid Mech"},{"key":"6078_CR54","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2079","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.1856","volume":"29","author":"R Kounkou","year":"2009","unstructured":"Kounkou R, Mills G, Timbal B (2009) A reanalysis climatology of cool-season tornado environments over southern Australia. Int J Climatol 29:2079\u20132090","journal-title":"Int J Climatol"},{"key":"6078_CR55","first-page":"145","volume":"51","author":"Y Kuleshov","year":"2002","unstructured":"Kuleshov Y, De Hoedt G, Wright W, Brewster A (2002) Thunderstorm distribution and frequency in Australia. Aust Meteorol Mag 51:145\u2013154","journal-title":"Aust Meteorol Mag"},{"key":"6078_CR56","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"325","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1008929526011","volume":"10","author":"DJ Lunn","year":"2000","unstructured":"Lunn DJ, Thomas A, Best N, Spiegelhalter D (2000) WinBUGS\u2014A Bayesian modelling framework: Concepts, structure, and extensibility. Stat Comput 10:325\u2013337","journal-title":"Stat Comput"},{"key":"6078_CR57","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3","DOI":"10.1016\/j.atmosres.2008.09.015","volume":"93","author":"PM Markowski","year":"2009","unstructured":"Markowski PM, Richardson YP (2009) Tornadogenesis: our current understanding, forecasting considerations, and questions to guide future research. Atmos Res 93:3\u201310","journal-title":"Atmos Res"},{"issue":"1","key":"6078_CR58","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.1175\/JAS-D-13-0159.1","volume":"71","author":"PM Markowski","year":"2014","unstructured":"Markowski PM, Richardson YP (2014) The influence of environmental low-level shear and cold pools on tornadogenesis: insights from idealized simulations. J Atmos Sci 71(1):243\u2013275","journal-title":"J Atmos Sci"},{"key":"6078_CR59","unstructured":"Mason MS, Klotzbach P (2013) A preliminary analysis of convective wind storm environments across Australia. In: proceedings of the 16th Australasian wind engineering society workshop, Brisbane, Australia"},{"key":"6078_CR60","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1078","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(1998)013<1078:OPOSTE>2.0.CO;2","volume":"13","author":"G Mills","year":"1998","unstructured":"Mills G, Colquhoun J (1998) Objective prediction of severe thunderstorm environments: preliminary results linking a decision tree with an operational regional NWP model. Weather Forecast 13:1078\u20131092","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR61","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.49710243208","volume":"102","author":"MW Moncrieff","year":"1976","unstructured":"Moncrieff MW, Miller MJ (1976) The dynamics and simulation of tropical cumulonimbus and squall line. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 102:373\u2013439","journal-title":"Quart J Roy Meteor Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR62","unstructured":"Munich RE (2016) Topics Geo-Natural catastrophes 2015 Analyses, assessments, positions. https:\/\/www.munichre.com\/content\/dam\/munichre\/contentlounge\/website-pieces\/documents\/delete-natcat\/302-08875_en1.pdf\/_jcr_content\/renditions\/original.\/302-08875_en1.pdf"},{"issue":"1","key":"6078_CR63","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"237","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-20-0075.1","volume":"36","author":"GP Pacey","year":"2021","unstructured":"Pacey GP, Schultz DM, Garcia-Carreras L (2021) Severe convective windstorms in Europe: climatology, preconvective environments, and convective mode. Weather Forecast 36(1):237\u2013252","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR64","first-page":"27","volume":"19","author":"BJ Paruk","year":"1994","unstructured":"Paruk BJ, Blackwell SR (1994) A severe thunderstorm climatology for Alberta. Natl Wea Dig 19:27\u201333","journal-title":"Natl Wea Dig"},{"key":"6078_CR65","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1175\/WAF-D-18-0137.1","volume":"34","author":"CK Potvin","year":"2019","unstructured":"Potvin CK, Broyles C, Skinner PS, Brooks HE, Rasmussen E (2019) A Bayesian hierarchical modeling frame-work for correcting reporting bias in the US tornado database. Weather Forecast 34:15\u201330","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR66","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"909","DOI":"10.1175\/JAMC-D-21-0225.1","volume":"61","author":"CK Potvin","year":"2022","unstructured":"Potvin CK, Broyles C, Skinner PS, Brooks HE (2022) Improving estimates of U.S. Tornado Frequency by accounting for unreported and underrated Tornadoes. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 61:909\u2013930","journal-title":"J Appl Meteorol Climatol"},{"key":"6078_CR67","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1148","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0434(1998)013<1148:ABCOSD>2.0.CO;2","volume":"13","author":"EN Rasmussen","year":"1998","unstructured":"Rasmussen EN, Blanchard DO (1998) A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters. Weather Forecast 13:1148\u20131164","journal-title":"Weather Forecast"},{"key":"6078_CR68","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1026","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(2003)131<1026:AIEOTO>2.0.CO;2","volume":"131","author":"PS Ray","year":"2003","unstructured":"Ray PS, Bieringer P, Niu X, Whissel B (2003) An Improved estimate of Tornado occurrence in the central plains of the United States. Mon Weather Rev 131:1026\u20131031","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"key":"6078_CR69","unstructured":"Schaefer JT, Galway JG (1982) Population biases in tornado climatology. In: 12th conference on severe local storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer Meteor Soc 51\u20135"},{"key":"6078_CR70","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1341","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1977)105<1341:ALAMTS>2.0.CO;2","volume":"105","author":"CR Snider","year":"1977","unstructured":"Snider CR (1977) A look at Michigan Tornado statistics. Mon Weather Rev 105:1341\u20131342","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"issue":"703","key":"6078_CR71","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1123","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.2995","volume":"143","author":"JS Soderholm","year":"2017","unstructured":"Soderholm JS, McGowan H, Richter H, Walsh K, Weckwerth TM, Coleman M (2017) An 18-year climatology of hailstorms trends and related drivers across Southeast Queensland Australia. Q J R Meteorol Soc 143(703):1123\u20131135","journal-title":"Q J R Meteorol Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR72","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"104529","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jweia.2021.104529","volume":"210","author":"AC Spassiani","year":"2021","unstructured":"Spassiani AC, Mason MS (2021) Application of self-organizing maps to classify the meteorological origin of wind gusts in Australia. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 210:104529","journal-title":"J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn"},{"key":"6078_CR73","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2061","DOI":"10.1002\/qj.3059","volume":"143","author":"I Suomi","year":"2017","unstructured":"Suomi I, Gryning SE, O\u2019Connor EJ, Vihma T (2017) Methodology for obtaining wind gusts using doppler lidar. Q J R Meteorol Soc 143:2061\u20132072","journal-title":"Q J R Meteorol Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR74","volume-title":"Australia's weather patterns: an introductory guide","author":"N Tapper","year":"1993","unstructured":"Tapper N, Hurry L (1993) Australia\u2019s weather patterns: an introductory guide. Dellasta Pty Ltd, Mount Waverley"},{"issue":"6","key":"6078_CR75","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1813","DOI":"10.1175\/JCLI-D-18-0372.1","volume":"32","author":"M Taszarek","year":"2019","unstructured":"Taszarek M, Allen J, P\u00fa\u010dik T, Groenemeijer P, Czernecki B, Kolendowicz L, Lagouvardos K, Kotroni V, Schulz W (2019) A climatology of thunderstorms across Europe from a synthesis of multiple data sources. J Clim 32(6):1813\u20131837","journal-title":"J Clim"},{"issue":"6","key":"6078_CR76","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"739","DOI":"10.1175\/2011BAMS2994.1","volume":"92","author":"NM Taylor","year":"2011","unstructured":"Taylor NM et al (2011) The understanding severe thunderstorms and alberta boundary layers experiment (UNSTABLE) 2008. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 92(6):739\u2013763","journal-title":"Bull Amer Meteor Soc"},{"key":"6078_CR77","unstructured":"Tescon JJ, Fujita TT, Abbey RF Jr (1983) Statistical analyses of U.S. tornadoes based on the geographic distribution of population, community, and other parameters. In: 13th conference on severe local storms, Tulsa, OK, Amer Meteor Soc 45\u201350"},{"key":"6078_CR78","unstructured":"Twisdale LA (1982) Regional tornado data base and error analysis. Preprints. In: 12th conference on severe local storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer Meteor Soc 45\u201350"},{"key":"6078_CR79","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jweia.2019.103963","volume":"193","author":"MB Vallis","year":"2019","unstructured":"Vallis MB, Loredo-Souza AM, Ferreira V, de Nascimento E, L Nascimento (2019) Classification and identification of synoptic and non-synoptic extreme wind events from surface observations in South America. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn 193:1\u201323","journal-title":"J Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn"},{"key":"6078_CR80","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"549","DOI":"10.1007\/s11069-013-0582-5","volume":"67","author":"CH Wang","year":"2013","unstructured":"Wang CH, Wang X, Khoo YB (2013) Extreme wind gust hazard in Australia and its sensitivity to climate change. Nat Hazards 67:549\u2013567","journal-title":"Nat Hazards"},{"key":"6078_CR81","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0493(1982)110<0504:TDONSC>2.0.CO;2","volume":"110","author":"ML Weisman","year":"1982","unstructured":"Weisman ML, Klemp JB (1982) The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy. Mon Weather Rev 110:504\u2013520","journal-title":"Mon Weather Rev"},{"issue":"4","key":"6078_CR82","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1175\/1520-0469(2004)061<0361:ATFSLS>2.0.CO;2","volume":"61","author":"ML Weisman","year":"2004","unstructured":"Weisman ML, Rotunno R (2004) A theory for strong long-lived squall lines\u201d revisited. J Atmos Sci 61(4):361\u2013382","journal-title":"J Atmos Sci"},{"key":"6078_CR83","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1127\/metz\/2016\/0754","volume":"26","author":"AT Westermayer","year":"2017","unstructured":"Westermayer AT, Groenemeijer P, Pistotnik G, Sausen R, Faust E (2017) Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data. Meteorol Z 26:59\u201370","journal-title":"Meteorol Z"},{"key":"6078_CR84","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1382","DOI":"10.1890\/0012-9658(2003)084[1382:HBMFPT]2.0.CO;2","volume":"84","author":"CK Wikle","year":"2003","unstructured":"Wikle CK (2003) Hierarchical Bayesian models for predicting the spread of ecological processes. Ecology 84:1382\u20131394","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"6078_CR85","unstructured":"WMO (2017) WMO guidelines on the calculation of climate normals. pp 29"}],"container-title":["Natural Hazards"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11069-023-06078-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11069-023-06078-8\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11069-023-06078-8.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,25]],"date-time":"2024-10-25T21:29:09Z","timestamp":1729891749000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11069-023-06078-8"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,8]]},"references-count":85,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,9]]}},"alternative-id":["6078"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11069-023-06078-8","relation":{},"ISSN":["0921-030X","1573-0840"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0921-030X","type":"print"},{"value":"1573-0840","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,8,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"17 November 2022","order":1,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"22 June 2023","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"value":"8 August 2023","order":3,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ArticleHistory","label":"Article History"}},{"order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Declarations"}},{"value":"The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.","order":2,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Competing interests"}}]}}