{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,22]],"date-time":"2026-06-22T19:32:15Z","timestamp":1782156735083,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,9,1]],"date-time":"2015-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1441065600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Bull Math Biol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,9]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-015-0100-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,8]],"date-time":"2015-10-08T16:54:26Z","timestamp":1444323266000},"page":"1668-1704","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":74,"title":["Be-CoDiS: A Mathematical Model to Predict the Risk of Human Diseases Spread Between Countries\u2014Validation and Application to the 2014\u20132015 Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"77","author":[{"given":"Benjamin","family":"Ivorra","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Di\u00e8ne","family":"Ngom","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"\u00c1ngel M.","family":"Ramos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,10,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"100_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"361","DOI":"10.1038\/280361a0","volume":"280","author":"M Anderson","year":"1979","unstructured":"Anderson M (1979) Population biology of infectious diseases: part 1. Nature 280:361\u2013367","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"100_CR2","unstructured":"Astacio J, Briere D, Martinez J, F Rodriguez, Valenzuela-Campos N (2014) Mathematical models to study the outbreaks of ebola. Mathematical and theoretical biology report, Arizona State University"},{"issue":"5","key":"100_CR3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1107","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bulm.2005.01.002","volume":"67","author":"C Bowman","year":"2005","unstructured":"Bowman C, Gumel A, Van den Driessche P, Wu J, Zhu H (2005) A mathematical model for assessing control strategies against West Nile virus. Bull Math Biol 67(5):1107\u20131133","journal-title":"Bull Math Biol"},{"key":"100_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-3516-1","volume-title":"Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology. Texts in applied mathematics","author":"F Brauer","year":"2001","unstructured":"Brauer F, Castillo-Ch\u00e1vez C (2001) Mathematical models in population biology and epidemiology. Texts in applied mathematics. Springer, Berlin"},{"key":"100_CR5","unstructured":"CDC (2014) Ebola disease. Centers for Disease Control. http:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/vhf\/ebola\/"},{"key":"100_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"196","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-014-0196-0","volume":"12","author":"G Chowell","year":"2014","unstructured":"Chowell G, Nishiura H (2014) Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review. BMC Med 12:196","journal-title":"BMC Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"100_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jtbi.2004.03.006","volume":"229","author":"G Chowell","year":"2004","unstructured":"Chowell G, Hengartner N, Castillo-Chavez C, Fenimore P, Hyman J (2004) The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda. J Theor Biol 229(1):119\u2013126","journal-title":"J Theor Biol"},{"key":"100_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-0869-1","volume-title":"Individual-based models and approaches in ecology: populations, communities, and ecosystems","author":"D DeAngelis","year":"1992","unstructured":"DeAngelis D, Gross L (1992) Individual-based models and approaches in ecology: populations, communities, and ecosystems. Chapman & Hall, London"},{"key":"100_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Diekmann O, Heesterbeek H, Britton T (2012) Mathematical tools for understanding infectious disease dynamics: Princeton series in theoretical and computational biology. Princeton University Press. http:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/j.cttq9530","DOI":"10.1515\/9781400845620"},{"key":"100_CR10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"541","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.2.6086.541","volume":"2","author":"R Emond","year":"1977","unstructured":"Emond R, Evans B, Bowen E, Lloyd G (1977) A case of Ebola virus infection. Br Med J 2:541\u2013544","journal-title":"Br Med J"},{"key":"100_CR11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A (2014) Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model. PLoS. doi: 10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.89c0d3783f36958d96ebbae97348d571","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.89c0d3783f36958d96ebbae97348d571"},{"issue":"1","key":"100_CR12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S13","DOI":"10.1038\/embor.2008.110","volume":"9","author":"P Fonkwo","year":"2008","unstructured":"Fonkwo P (2008) Pricing infectious disease. The economic and health implications of infectious diseases. EMBO Rep 9(1):S13\u2013S17","journal-title":"EMBO Rep"},{"issue":"9","key":"100_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1450","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-013-9855-0","volume":"75","author":"E Forgoston","year":"2013","unstructured":"Forgoston E, Schwartz I (2013) Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data. Bull Math Biol 75(9):1450\u20131471","journal-title":"Bull Math Biol"},{"key":"100_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Gomes M, Pastore\u00a0y Piontti A, Rossi L, Chao D, Longini I, Halloran M, Vespignani A (2014) Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak. PLoS. doi: 10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.cd818f63d40e24aef769dda7df9e0da5","DOI":"10.1371\/currents.outbreaks.cd818f63d40e24aef769dda7df9e0da5"},{"issue":"6178","key":"100_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1520","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1248676","volume":"343","author":"J Guy","year":"2014","unstructured":"Guy J, Nikola S (2014) Quantifying global international migration flows. Science 343(6178):1520\u20131522","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"10","key":"100_CR16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1716","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-013-9866-x","volume":"75","author":"N Hernandez-Ceron","year":"2013","unstructured":"Hernandez-Ceron N, Feng Z, Castillo-Chavez C (2013) Discrete epidemic models with arbitrary stage distributions and applications to disease control. Bull Math Biol 75(10):1716\u20131746","journal-title":"Bull Math Biol"},{"key":"100_CR17","unstructured":"Hewlett B, Hewlett B (2007) Ebola, culture and politics: The anthropology of an emerging disease. Case studies on contemporary social issues. Cengage Learning, Hampshire"},{"issue":"3","key":"100_CR18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"032001","DOI":"10.1063\/1.4793612","volume":"25","author":"B Ivorra","year":"2013","unstructured":"Ivorra B, Redondo JL, Santiago JG, Ortigosa PM, Ramos AM (2013) Two- and three-dimensional modeling and optimization applied to the design of a fast hydrodynamic focusing microfluidic mixer for protein folding. Phys Fluids 25(3):032001","journal-title":"Phys Fluids"},{"issue":"1","key":"100_CR19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1007\/s10479-012-1257-4","volume":"219","author":"B Ivorra","year":"2014","unstructured":"Ivorra B, Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez B, S\u00e1nchez-Vizca\u00edno J, Ramos A (2014) Mathematical formulation and validation of the Be-FAST model for classical swine fever virus spread between and within farms. Ann Oper Res 219(1):25\u201347","journal-title":"Ann Oper Res"},{"issue":"4","key":"100_CR20","first-page":"610","volume":"135","author":"J Legrand","year":"2007","unstructured":"Legrand J, Grais R, Boelle P, Valleron A, Flahault A (2007) Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics. Med Hypotheses 135(4):610\u2013621","journal-title":"Med Hypotheses"},{"issue":"4","key":"100_CR21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1170","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541-0420.2006.00609.x","volume":"62","author":"P Lekone","year":"2006","unstructured":"Lekone P, Finkenst\u00e4dt B (2006) Statistical inference in a stochastic epidemic SEIR model with control intervention: Ebola as a case study. Biometrics 62(4):1170\u20131177","journal-title":"Biometrics"},{"issue":"5656","key":"100_CR22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"387","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1092528","volume":"303","author":"E Leroy","year":"2004","unstructured":"Leroy E, Rouquet P, Formenty P, Souqui\u00e8re S, Kilbourne A, Froment J, Bermejo M, Smit S, Karesh W, Swanepoel R, Zaki S, Rollin P (2004) Multiple Ebola virus transmission events and rapid decline of central African wildlife. Science 303(5656):387\u2013390","journal-title":"Science"},{"issue":"3\u20134","key":"100_CR23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"300","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2010.07.009","volume":"147","author":"B Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez","year":"2011","unstructured":"Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez B, Ivorra B, Ramos A, S\u00e1nchez-Vizca\u00edno J (2011) A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model. Vet Microbiol 147(3\u20134):300\u2013309","journal-title":"Vet Microbiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"100_CR24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2011.08.008","volume":"155","author":"B Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez","year":"2012","unstructured":"Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez B, Ivorra B, Ngom D, Ramos A, S\u00e1nchez-Vizca\u00edno J (2012) A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. II. Validation of the model. Vet Microbiol 155(1):21\u201332","journal-title":"Vet Microbiol"},{"issue":"1\u20132","key":"100_CR25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"79","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vetmic.2013.01.045","volume":"165","author":"B Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez","year":"2013","unstructured":"Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez B, Ivorra B, Ramos A, Fern\u00e1ndez-Carri\u00f3n E, Alexandrov T, S\u00e1nchez-Vizca\u00edno JM (2013) Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria. Vet Microbiol 165(1\u20132):79\u201385","journal-title":"Vet Microbiol"},{"issue":"1","key":"100_CR26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2014.01.013","volume":"114","author":"B Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez","year":"2014","unstructured":"Mart\u00ednez-L\u00f3pez B, Ivorra B, Fern\u00e1ndez-Carri\u00f3n E, Perez A, Medel-Herrero A, S\u00e1nchez-Vizca\u00edno F, Gort\u00e1zar C, Ramos A, S\u00e1nchez-Vizca\u00edno J (2014) A multi-analysis approach for space\u2013time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: The example of FMD in Peru. Prev Vet Med 114(1):47\u201363","journal-title":"Prev Vet Med"},{"issue":"1","key":"100_CR27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17","DOI":"10.1016\/j.mehy.2004.09.029","volume":"65","author":"E Massad","year":"2005","unstructured":"Massad E, Burattini M, Lopez L, Coutinho FA (2005) Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: the case of the SARS epidemics. Med Hypotheses 65(1):17\u201322","journal-title":"Med Hypotheses"},{"key":"100_CR28","unstructured":"Meltzer M, Atkins C, Santibanez S, Knust B, Petersen B, Ervin E, Nichol S, Damon I, Washington M (2014) Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic\u2014Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014\u20132015. Centers for Disease Control MMWR\/Early Release 63"},{"key":"100_CR29","unstructured":"ONS (2013a) Examining the differences between the mid-year short-term immigration estimates and the 2011 Census for England and Wales. Office for National Statistics. http:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/ons\/dcp171776_312055"},{"key":"100_CR30","unstructured":"ONS (2013b) Immigration patterns of non-UK born populations in England and Wales in 2011. Office for National Statistics. http:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/ons\/dcp171776_346219"},{"key":"100_CR31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Peters CJ, Peters JW (1999) An introduction to Ebola: the virus and the disease. J Infect Dis 179(Supplement 1):ix\u2013xvi","DOI":"10.1086\/514322"},{"issue":"5","key":"100_CR32","first-page":"1531","volume":"109","author":"T Piercy","year":"2010","unstructured":"Piercy T, Smither S, Steward J, Eastaugh L, Lever M (2010) The survival of filoviruses in liquids, on solid substrates and in a dynamic aerosol. J Appl Microbiol 109(5):1531\u20131539","journal-title":"J Appl Microbiol"},{"key":"100_CR33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691187655","volume-title":"Mathematics in population biology. Mathematical biology series","author":"H Thieme","year":"2003","unstructured":"Thieme H (2003) Mathematics in population biology. Mathematical biology series. Princeton University Press, Princeton"},{"key":"100_CR34","unstructured":"WHO (2014a) Fact sheet n $$^{o}$$ o 103: Ebola virus disease. World Health Organization. http:\/\/www.who.int\/mediacentre\/factsheets\/fs103\/en\/"},{"key":"100_CR35","unstructured":"WHO (2014b) Global alert and response: Ebola virus disease. World Health Organization. http:\/\/apps.who.int\/ebola\/en\/ebola-situation-reports"},{"key":"100_CR36","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"WHO Response Team (2014) Ebola virus disease in West Africa\u2014the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N Engl J Med 371:1481\u20131495","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1411100"}],"container-title":["Bulletin of Mathematical Biology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11538-015-0100-x.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s11538-015-0100-x\/fulltext.html","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/s11538-015-0100-x","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2019,8,31]],"date-time":"2019-08-31T09:39:34Z","timestamp":1567244374000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"http:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/s11538-015-0100-x"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2015,9]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,9]]}},"alternative-id":["100"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s11538-015-0100-x","relation":{},"ISSN":["0092-8240","1522-9602"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0092-8240","type":"print"},{"value":"1522-9602","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2015,9]]}}}