{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T20:48:17Z","timestamp":1793393297774,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":21,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,8]],"date-time":"2025-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754611200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,8]],"date-time":"2025-08-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1754611200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"name":"N\/A"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Bull Math Biol"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n          <jats:p>\n            <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic> continues to cause many cases of dengue, chikungunya and Zika fever in affected areas of the tropical world. After being eradicated from Brazil in the decades of 1940 and 1950, <jats:italic>Aedes aegypti<\/jats:italic> returned with full force in the early 1970s. Knowing the total number of mosquitoes transmitting Aedes-borne infections is crucial for quantifying the intensity of transmission of these infections. In this paper, we propose a model to estimate the distribution of the number of Aedes mosquitoes\u2019 populations during an outbreak of either dengue or chikungunya. The model assumes that the mosquitoes\u2019 distribution follows a Gaussian Mesa Function (GMF), which has 5 parameters and allows for variable asymmetry. These 5 parameters are adjusted so that they fit indirectly, from a modified Ross\u2012Macdonald model, the incidence of dengue or chikungunya infections (see main text). Therefore, the observed incidence becomes a function of the parameters of the GMF. We illustrate the model with dengue and chikungunya data from 5 cities in the state of Minas Gerais in the southeastern region of Brazil for the 2023\u20132024 transmission season. The model shows that it is possible to estimate the size of the mosquitoes\u2019 population from incidence data, circumventing the logistic hurdles involved in the actual counting of mosquitoes. This is the most important practical contribution of this paper. The paper also contains several theoretical innovations, such as a modification of the Ross\u2012Macdonald model, which is usually presented for a constant mosquitoes\u2019 population, which, of course, is very unrealistic.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-025-01489-z","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,8]],"date-time":"2025-08-08T15:36:14Z","timestamp":1754667374000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Estimating the Size of the Aedes Mosquitoes\u2019 Population Involved in Outbreaks of Dengue and Chikungunya Using a Mathematical Model"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"87","author":[{"given":"Francisco Ant\u00f4nio Bezerra","family":"Coutinho","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marcos","family":"Amaku","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fernanda Castro","family":"Boulos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jos\u00e9 Alfredo","family":"de Sousa Moreira","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eliana Nogueira Castro","family":"de Barros","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Esper Georges","family":"Kallas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eduardo","family":"Massad","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,8]]},"reference":[{"issue":"5","key":"1489_CR1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1294","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538-009-9495-6","volume":"72","author":"M Amaku","year":"2010","unstructured":"Amaku M, Burattini MN, Coutinho FA, Massad E (2010a) Modeling the dynamics of viral evolution considering competition within individual hosts and at population level: the effects of treatment. 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