{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,8]],"date-time":"2026-06-08T12:44:11Z","timestamp":1780922651528,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":103,"publisher":"Duke University Press","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,31]],"date-time":"2017-07-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1501459200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/www.springer.com\/tdm"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2017,8,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>China launched an unprecedented program to control its population in 1971. Experts have dismissed the official estimate of 400 million births averted by this program as greatly exaggerated yet neglect to provide their own estimates. Counterfactual projections based on fertility declines in other countries suggest that China\u2019s program-averted population numbered 360\u2013520 million as of 2015. The low end of this range is based on Vietnam\u2014China\u2019s best national comparator, with a two-child program of its own\u2014and the high end is based on a 16-country comparator selected, ironically, by critics of the official estimate. The latter comparator further implies that China\u2019s one-child program itself averted a population of 400 million by 2015, three-quarters of the total averted population. All such estimates are projected to double by 2060, due mostly to counterfactual population momentum. These and other findings presented herein affirm the astonishing impact of China\u2019s draconian policy choices and challenge the current consensus that rapid socioeconomic progress drove China\u2019s fertility well below two children per family. International comparisons of fertility and income suggest instead that China\u2019s very low fertility arrived two or three decades too soon. If China had not harshly enforced a norm of 1.5-children during the last quarter century, most mothers would have had two children, one-half birth higher than observed.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1007\/s13524-017-0595-x","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,31]],"date-time":"2017-07-31T11:07:42Z","timestamp":1501499262000},"page":"1375-1400","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":58,"title":["The Astonishing Population Averted by China\u2019s Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions"],"prefix":"10.1215","volume":"54","author":[{"given":"Daniel","family":"Goodkind","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Arlington, VA 22201, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"73","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,7,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR1","volume-title":"Slaughter of the innocents: Coercive birth control in China","author":"Aird","year":"1990"},{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR2","volume-title":"Land reform and sex selection in China","author":"Almond","year":"2014"},{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR3","volume-title":"Director Zhang Yimou fined $1.2 million for violating China\u2019s strict children policy","author":"Associated Press","year":"2014"},{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR4","volume-title":"China\u2019s changing population","author":"Banister","year":"1987"},{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR5","volume-title":"Vietnam population dynamics and prospects","author":"Banister","year":"1992"},{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR6","volume-title":"Childbearing preferences, reform of family planning restrictions and the Low Fertility Trap in China","author":"Basten","year":"2013"},{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"493","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4465.2014.00003.x","article-title":"China\u2019s family planning policies: Recent reforms and future prospects","volume":"45","author":"Basten","year":"2014","journal-title":"Studies in Family Planning"},{"key":"2025120911134791100_CR8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2173","DOI":"10.1007\/s13524-013-0236-y","article-title":"Has the world really survived the population bomb? 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