{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,5]],"date-time":"2026-11-05T01:58:23Z","timestamp":1793843903523,"version":"4.6.1"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Springer Science and Business Media LLC","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,28]],"date-time":"2025-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756339200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,28]],"date-time":"2025-08-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756339200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004375","name":"Tel Aviv University","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004375","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Infection"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Measles outbreaks have occurred across England since mid-2023. We estimated measles and rubella antibody seroprevalence among individuals in 2018 in English regions outside London, and estimated the effective reproduction number (Re) for measles to predict the potential for outbreaks.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using validated enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, anti-Measles and anti-Rubella IgG antibodies were measured in residual sera from 3758 1-30-year-olds born after introduction of measles-mumps-rubella vaccination who submitted samples to clinical laboratories outside London. The measles Re was calculated using seronegatives defined by the manufacturer\u2019s cutoff, mixture modelling, and vaccination coverage data.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Using the manufacturer\u2019s cutoffs, the overall proportion seronegative to measles was 9.2% (95% confidence interval 8.3\u201310.1), and 10.3% (9.4\u201311.3) had equivocal results. The respective estimates for rubella were lower at 5.2% (4.6-6.0) and 5.4% (4.7\u20136.1). For both viruses, equivocal proportions increased with age, consistent with antibody waning. Mixture modelling for measles identified a common seronegative distribution across age groups, with lower proportions seronegative than using the manufacturer\u2019s cutoff. Re for measles using the manufacturer\u2019s seronegative cutoff (~\u2009150 mille international units\/mL) was 1.00, versus 0.38 and 0.51 using the mixture model and vaccination coverage, respectively.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Re for measles estimated from seroepidemiology using an antibody cut-off similar to that considered a correlate of protection for measles was a more accurate predictor of recent measles resurgences outside London than those estimated using mixture modelling of seronegatives or coverage data. Seroepidemiological studies are a useful adjunct to coverage data in monitoring population immunity and in predicting the potential for measles outbreaks.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1007\/s15010-025-02630-9","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,28]],"date-time":"2025-08-28T06:32:00Z","timestamp":1756362720000},"page":"2809-2820","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Sero-prevalence of measles and rubella immunoglobulin G serum antibody in individuals 1\u201330 years old in England in 2018: implications for subsequent outbreaks prediction"],"prefix":"10.1007","volume":"53","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1086-7559","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Khitam","family":"Muhsen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoon Hong","family":"Choi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jemma","family":"Walker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nick","family":"Andrews","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Helen I.","family":"McDonald","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kevin","family":"Brown","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Miller","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"2630_CR1","volume-title":"Harrison\u2019s principles of internal medicine, 20e","author":"K Rainwater-Lovett","year":"2018","unstructured":"Rainwater-Lovett K, Moss WJ. 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